Tropical Update Starring Steve Lyons

Steve Lyons used to say something that annoyed the hell out of me...with a big smile...

He would say:

"Great day for a cruise" 

That meant... nada, nothing happening..

It means someone who got a cheap deal on a cruise to Cozumel got lucky...

If you are wondering where Steve Lyons is these days he is in San Angelo, Texas.

http://www.gosanangelo.com/news/2010/jun/08/famous-face-forecasting-for-nws/

He is the meteorologist in charge and apparently he was looking for "wild weather" and found it in Texas. Well, they do say everything is bigger in Texas...right?

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sjt/?n=office

On a rambling note I've spent a Shabbos in San Angelo. We were driving cross country and it seemed a nice little town to stop in and rest a spell. That part of Texas is different from most other places. In case you wondered it's sort of "West Central Texas" which is like saying "definitely maybe" as it is really somewhere between Texas Hill Country and moving on towards El Paso. Again.. a good place to rest. Sweet little town that oddly had a store with a lot of kosher canned products and various salad dressings, good produce and friendly people. It rained... they do get rain and they worry about the creeks flooding. Mind you ..you don't see the creeks unless it rains...sort of like the LA River in Long Beach, California. But, again I'm digressing. Guessing we were cutting down from  I20 to I10 on our way from Miami to LA and it seemed like a nice enough place to stop.. and it was indeed. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Angelo,_Texas

"San Angelo falls on the southwestern edge of the Edwards Plateau and the northeastern edge of theChihuahuan desert at the juncture of the North and South Concho Rivers."

The climate it says is:

"San Angelo falls near the boundary between the subtropical semiarid steppe (Köppen BSh) and mid-latitude steppe climates (Köppen BSk). It is located at the region where Central Texas meets West Texas weather. Temperatures reach 100°F about 15 times in an average year.^[15] However, in 2011, San Angelo recorded 100 days of 100°F or higher.^[16] The average year has 51 days with lows below freezing.^[15] Though the region does experience snow and sleet, they occur only a few times a year. San Angelo averages 251 days of sunshine a year, and the average temperature is 64.9°F. The city has an average rainfall of 20.45 inches (519 mm).^[17]"

Doesn't sound SOO wild to me, but a bit extreme. The name "Long Hot Summer" comes to mind.. 

So, now you know, so if you are ever driving through San Angelo.. know if you are driving through Steven Lyons is watching the weather for you :)

There isn't much weather to watch in the tropics today. 

"DRY AND STABLE AIR IS ACROSS THE FAR NW 

CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES...UP TO 30 KT NEAR 
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS 
WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES."

Discussion from the NHC above.. basically means "nice sailing weather" or "enjoy that cruise you're on" :)

There are some showers off the East Coast of Florida and if you were wondering than go to the Melbourne office of the NWS as they are the best at forecast discussion for that region.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=FL&prodtype=discussion

High Pressure is the Keyword here to think on.. nice weather today but maybe not so nice later in the hurricane season.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO BY TONIGHT...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO BE EAST TO NORTHEAST TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. THE NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN SOME
DRIER AIR TO THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE SPREADING INTO REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. 

HIGH PRESSURE...The High is locked into place for now. It wiggles a bit to the right and left, but it's not giving up its grip for now on South Florida.

Two things to think on here. 

1... tropical waves are out and about.

2... The High will push anything west over South Florida & the set up in a month or so is important to watch. If it wiggles a bit to the south we are safe, but if it wiggles a bit to the north the door would be open to propel any thing stronger than a "tropical wave" across South Florida. 

3... There are ULLs. Are we into the hurricane season or what?

"LONG TERM...
THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SO THE POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE SCATTERED RANGE WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND."

So.. playing around below you can see in hot pink we have the following players in the tropics today: 

1) SAL..Saharan Dust moving West from Africa.

2) Tropical Waves working their way west through the dust...

3) ULL moving down off the coast of Florida kicking up showers on it's "dirty side" (think of a guy with an edge..)

4) Something down in the SW Caribbean where the GFS wants to play hurricane maker.. hmmnn. Time will tell on that one. It is sort of normal for their to be rain down there this time of year.. as well as lots of shear. So, unless pressures drop.. not buying it today or yesterday. Again.. time will tell.

Okay my art skills are not that great. You should see my dance though... You would forgive me ;)

So... keep watching. This week is a good time to finish your hurricane preparations if you live in Hurricane Country. Think of it like getting a VISA to continue living safely in the tropics. 

And... if you are getting ready to go on a cruise... looks like smooth sailing.. And, if you are going on a trip somewhere on land.. check out what the weather will be on the NWS site; I know I do...

http://www.weather.gov/

Besos Bobbi

Tropical Satellite Loop for the day... from the above image with the great art work..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/rb-animated.gif

You can loop that link to the following song.. enjoy :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIHRgisdbeY&feature=kp