Start of the Hurricane Season. 1st Named Storm Arthur. Is Boris Forming in the EPAC?

This is how the world looks on June 1st, 2014

1st Day of the Atlantic Hurricane Season

Where do we watch on June 1st for tropical development?

Where will Arthur form?

You don't need a degree in meteorology to recognize that there is a lot of tropical moisture in the Eastern Pacific as well as the Caribbean around the Yucatan. If you didn't know anything about meteorology you would think that some storm had made landfall ON Central America and was raining itself out. If you know a little about tropical meteorology you would say there is a "monsoon trough" set up in the tropics.

If you go to the NHC you will find out that there is a red circle in the EPAC with a 60% chance of developing. 

Now, whether this gets a the name Boris or just stays a weak tropical mess there is one thing that is a "for sure" and that is this will cause misery for parts of Central America.

 A low pressure area located about 300 miles south-southeast of
Puerto Angel, Mexico, has become better defined during the day.
Environmental conditions are becoming increasingly conducive for
development...and a tropical depression will likely form during the
next few days while the low drifts northward. Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, this system will produce locally heavy rains over
portions of western Central America and southeastern Mexico this
coming week, causing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticSatellite.aspx?animate=true

Again... let me repeat this... this system has the potential for life threatening flash floods and mudslides as it is moving North towards Central America not west out towards open ocean. 

Then as it continues moving north it's moisture will ooze it's way into the Atlantic Basin and up the ante for an early Tropical Storm named Arthur. We are still only discussing "Arthur" by way of modeling packages that regularly spit out some weak, lopsided storm in the Gulf of Mexico later this week. That would be typical of most A storms in early June. Rarely do you have a really well formed cyclone in that part of the world. It happens... 

Alma in 1966 was a Category 3 Hurricane that is one for the record books. Different storm, different year, different set of conditions. Just pointing it out that it can happen... Just most likely not this year. So for all of you people reading tomorrow about a possible Tropical Storm in the GOM.. .threatening some part of the Gulf Coast... breathe... make a plan for this coming year and go shopping in Florida and enjoy the Tax Free Holiday for Hurricane Supplies. Check the list before you assume... 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Alma_(1966)

Track of Alma 1966

Current GFS Ensemble Model for 93E

HMMNNNNN...

So, the question is ... does something cross over? Does it rain itself out over Central America? Does something new form? Keep watching... weather is fluid and it happens when it happens. Best reality show on Planet Earth...

So this is in reality where are tonight.

You tell me what is going to form and where its going to form? It's like pin the head on the tropical donkey if you ask me...

Honestly they are two different areas of moisture and it could be that the one in the EPAC is being pulled north by the stronger, larger area on the Atlantic/Carib side caught up in the low level flow ..

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l12&region=ea

We'll know soon enough..

State of my tropics tonight is that we have something to look at and wonder upon on the 1st Day of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

And, I'll be here sharing my thoughts with you and on Twitter @Bobbistorm and following all the sites on www.spaghettimodels.com as well as a few other sites I love.

Follow along, but if you live in Florida... go shopping tomorrow for hurricane supplies and save money on the taxes. It's a nice holiday and few states are offering it so if you live in Florida.. take advantage.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/business/retail/florida-hurricane-sales-tax-holiday-may-31-to-june-8/2182203

Whether Arthur forms from this convection in the Caribbean or if it doesn't something will form and you will be happy you saved money rather than impulse shopping in a crowded Walmart somewhere in Hurricane Country. And... just because El Nino may be forming later in the season does not mean we will have a quiet June or July.

Only Time Will Tell... models make predictions and they change in real time. Only after the storm passes do we really know what happened.

My job and the job of may of us online is to give you the best information from a variety of sources that help you best understand the possibilities that may be fall you. And, as always the official line is the NHC and they do a great job of putting out information as does the NWS ...

According to their blog... the big day is here ...
http://noaanhc.wordpress.com/

The names for the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season are listed below. May none of them seriously rock your world too hard this coming season. My best advice: Stay Prepared.

1992 was an El Nino... there were only 6 storms...one was Andrew. I've said it here over and over again.

My friend said it well tonight on Twitter. Remember it the next time some one tells you not to worry they heard an El Nino was forming and it would "kill the hurricane season off" .. Remind them of 1992. You see us Miami kids do not forget the reality that in any given year you can host a hurricane that came to dinner.. even if you didn't invite it to the party...

In a very slow hurricane season.. it only takes one.. it is so, so, so true!

Besos Bobbi
Ps.. I will update tomorrow morning