Hail & Hurricanes & Amanda. Watching the Tropics for an Early Season Storm. Why You Should Worry on Slow Seasons. Betsy 1965... Andrew 1992

This is the picture that started it all this morning... love the way he displays the size of the hail. Like one of those tests we did in kindergarten. "Circle the ones that are not hail."

Yes, the Weather Twittersphere is alive and buzzing this morning, but it's not about the upcoming hurricane season.... it's all about hail. I'm sure if Batman was in Amsterdam New York   yesterday he would be screaming out "HOLY HAIL!"

Yes it seems Batman does weather ;)

http://omgghana.com/batman-takes-crime-fighting-break-becomes-weatherman-video/

So does Cantore and who you gonna trust in today's world online? Cantore is at the top of the list. Mind you my list of people I trust...and do not trust...is long and I'm not sharing that story here ..but Cantore is one of the best. There are so many good mets out there that we in the weather world trust. Allan Huffman from RaleighWX  is another meteorologist who runs a great site. He has valuable input and is someone I and many listen to online. Here's the link to his well respected site online.

http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html

You see what Allan Huffman knows is climo... and normally a season with an early, exciting start goes quietly bust later in the season. Often that happens when an El Nino begins to form and the environment changes. An early start can also be followed by a slow season and then BOOM ... the old adage "it only takes one" becomes a living example of never letting your guard down...

A really good LONG read is the 2014 Hurricane Forecast (if you think I'm a long read you haven't seen anything yet) is linked to below.  A great read, grab a cup of Joe and sit a spell and read on slowly. Yes Joe Bastardi is also a long read ;) but one of my favorites mets that I have met many times and adore is Dr. Bill Gray. He loves purple, has great hands and is one of the most sentimental, scientific guys I have ever met. Note I've met quite a few that that could apply to but Dr. Gray is at the top of my list. Note he has taught some of the best....

http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2014/apr2014/apr2014.pdf
The Colorado State Report lists 1965 as an analog year.. (it's on page 20... come on you can do it...)

The 1965 Atlantic Hurricane Season had an early tropical system in June that crossed over from the Pacific into the Atlantic Basin. Then nothing happened until Anna in August. And then came Betsy...

Oh LOOK! The last week in August the THIRD tropical system formed and became a Category 4 storm and rocked Florida and Louisiana's world. Betsy hit all those tropical ports of call from Marathon to Tavernier to Islamorada and then she kept moving WNW all the way to Grand Isle and Morgan City Louisiana. 

Now check out 1992 Hurricane Season... a very early system and then nada ...nothing until late August when Category 5 Hurricane Andrew.......(Jaws music here...)

Hurricane Betsy...Spider like with a tight eye hovering over Miami

http://floridamemory.com/items/show/4122

AGAIN... LET ME SAY THIS... 1965 was a "slow season" but that did not stop Hurricane Betsy from becoming a Category 4 Hurricane that killed 75 people and created so much damage that it took Hurricane Andrew in 1992 to out do Hurricane Betsy. Oh.........LET ME SAY THIS TO REMEMBER 1992 was a SLOW Hurricane Season and yet it gave us Category 5 Hurricane Andrew that was responsible for 26 deaths in all and is infamous for it's catastrophic financial devastation over a wide area from the Bahamas to Florida to Louisiana.. 

Do not jump up and down when every weather person passes along the popular weather ditty of 2014 "El Nino is coming ...we have nothing to worry about" with a video soon to hit YouTube to the tune of the Happy Song.  No... El Nino is not necessarily a good thing in the tropics. Quantity goes down, yet so often quality goes up.  Less products are produced at the tropical hurricane factory...however the products that are produced are expensive and of the highest quality ingredients. Stay vigilant, be informed and don't let your guard down as it could happen to you:

http://www.hurricanecity.com/betsy.htm
Oh...and you might want to listen to Jim Williams ... and his predictions for cities most likely to be impacted by a tropical system and oh.....Miami is WAY UP on the his list..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-jZWlohfWuo


Another link to keep... check often and keep watching. If something forms somewhere early this coming season it will most likely be where the potential heat energy is...

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/athhp.gif

Mike at www.spaghettimodels.com put up this link you can read to better understand how the site above works.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/go.html

If you want to really learn more for yourself on how the tropics work.. it's a good read! If not just trust me..click on the link often and watch the trends. For example, the warm colors are oozing north towards the Florida Straits..

The changes may be subtle...but they show trends, patterns and possibilities.

May 11th:

May 19th:

Compare... contrast....keep watching...

Bookmark my site... bookmark www.spaghettimodels.com and visit us often.

And...........follow me and others on Twitter at @bobbistorm

https://twitter.com/BobbiStorm

Oh...and Tropical Storm Amanda was just born in the Pacific

More on her later... currently moving away from land.. Baja heads up just in case..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep1+shtml/144714.shtml?5-daynl#contents

Besos Bobbi

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y6Sxv-sUYtM&feature=kp

Ps... Learn a little about the town in upstate New York that is a constant reminder to the Dutch influence in New York State.  Read up on what F. Scott Fitzgerald alluded to..

http://montgomery.nygenweb.net/amster.html

" And as the moon rose higher the inessential houses began to melt away until gradually I became aware of the old island here that flowered once for Dutch sailors’ eyes — a fresh, green breast of the new world."
F. Scott Fitzgerald