Dry May... Where oh where can those Miami May Monsoons Be I Wonder???

Where oh where can out May Monsoons be....where or where can they be?

I write this because May or rather Mid to Late May in Miami brings with it the very wet, larger than life monsoons. So far it's dry and the sky is blue and there's barely a rain cloud anywhere. And, when it rains it doesn't rain violets it rains a few drops and the sun comes out and in 30 minutes the clouds are gone again blown away on a strong Easterly wind.

Note the large, strong HIGH to Miami's East.... on this image that can be found on
www.SpaghettiModels.com.

Some years we get what is called a "Dry May" in the Miami area. It's a reference to a study done by a great meteorologists Jim Lushine who noted that when South Florida has a very dry May.... we are more prone to getting hit by large hurricanes moving WNW around a huge Bermuda High. The more the high is in place, the dryer it is in May and the stronger the chance there is for Atlantic Hurricanes later in the season.  Note a very wet pattern with stalled out frontal boundaries can often bring storms from the SW out of the Caribbean in September and October. Both are bad sets up with different end game solutions that over time have proven their worth in watching.

This year everything is off kilter. We had a wet dry season in the winter time. Now as we move into the wet monsoon season we are suddenly very dry. A late season cold front is about to move down across South Florida possibly interacting with quasi tropical rain that is still to our East in the Bahamas ... that moved up from the PR region looking like an early wanna be tropical wave.

It's beautiful here. Blue skies and a strong breeze out of the East sometimes gusting in the high 20s with a few strong gusts in some places to 30mph. That is a strong, fast flow out of the East.

And....what it is doing is blowing the tops off of the thunderheads that kept trying to build up all day.

This morning around 9 AM... the poor little cumulus cloud trying to build into a big cumulus tower was giving it try .....

There I sat in the doctor's office in Aventura watching out the window as it began to climb while waiting for the doctor to work his way through his crowded office. This little wannabe tower kept going... note the thin clouds above it were flying going in the other direction...

About an hour later just before the doctor walked in to listen to my lungs and hear me cough I noticed the clouds were well on their way to Cumulus Congestus.

Hey hey...best attempt I've seen in a long, long time at making Miami look like it should in May.

I am not making this up see for yourself.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=cloud_classification

So ... the doctor told me my lungs sound "LOUSY" and it seems I have more congestion than the Miami sky....  I got back to the house with 4 different medications, a breathing treatment and multiple other things we won't talk on and the sky to the East looked like this...

Note 2 things.

1. One cloud attempting again to make a tower... 

2.  The flag is standing straight out... being held in place by a strong Easterly wind.

3 PM this afternoon................

(note the high thin cloud hovering over another attempt to make a tower... flag still blowing)

Now........oddly in the NW there is a collage of clouds where all the tops of all the clouds blew off and tried to finally get as congested as my lungs seem to be...however it's a cloud buffet with every cloud imaginable in the sky competing for attention like one of those busy Beethoven songs ...

I keep looking to see if it looks like anything will happen but note the HIGH LEVEL clouds.

Now... let's look at the Phil Factor from Phil Ferro....

NOTE... EVERYONE'S GRASS NEEDS WATER

We should be moving towards the start of the EPAC Hurricane Season. The wave the other day fell apart and every day it looks as if something is going to get going and yet it dies down once again.

EPAC:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/epac/flash-avn.html

And, the May Monsoons that usually begin about now are not happening yet.

When...is any one's guess. 

John Morales says the approaching cold front should push off the start of the Monsoon Season which segues into the HURRICANE SEASON...

Well I will agree with John.. we are dealing with cold fronts as we head slowly into the hurricane season.

Truth is.... often it looks like the rainy season isn't happening and then... it does. Plain and simple, suddenly the sky turns purple and it pours like there is no tomorrow. That first crazy rain of the rainy season.

And... it's hard to think on the start of the hurricane season in Miami until you have the rainy season begin...the May Monsoons.

So...where oh where can our May Monsoons be is my question?

Check out this loop.... storms over the Western GOM and an early wave train starting over Africa.



Some rain possibilities moving towards Florida ...

I still think that North Florida will be in the way of anything tropical that forms early this June. Take a line from Tampa to St. Augustine and something weak, but tropical, could travel across the Sunshine State.

As for South Florida....

Seems to be a dry May so far.....

Know though that every theory has it's Waterloo. In the beginning of June 2005 it was noted that it had been a very wet May and that could mean less of a hurricane threat for Florida by some people....Hmnnnn

http://staugustine.com/stories/060105/sta_3114955.shtml

"The bad news first: A Colorado scientist, with a respectable record of predicting the number of hurricanes each season, sees more storms on the horizon this year.

Now the good news: A veteran meteorologist with the National Weather service, whose theory also holds water, says the number of hurricane landfalls is linked to how wet the season's May is, and the month just ended had plenty of rain, which means fewer storms striking Florida."

Seems your guess is as good as mine this year. I mean 2005 was a busy year in Florida from every direction.

What will 2014 bring?

Discussion over an expected El Nino.
A late winter that hasn't ended yet...
A very Dry May...

Seems once again only time will tell...

Thanks for your patience. Between my son Levi and his wife having their first child a few weeks early and taking care of other family business and fighting off ...unsuccessfully... a case of acute bronchitis I've been laying low on the blog this week. But..........then again.... the weather here has been laying low and I'm waiting for something really tropical to talk about ... other than Twisters up north and fires out west.

He's a daddy now... someone look him up and buy some real estate... he now has a family.

Note... that baby is a 5th Generation Floridian... maybe 6th... he knows Miami Real Estate ;)

http://levimeyer.com/22666/dsp_agent_page.php/175250

Besos Bobbi

Ps...

My son in Ames spent the last night in Ames before traveling to Seattle for his internship with Amazon this summer... in the safe area of his apartment building waiting for the funnel cloud to pass...the two cuties on the blanket are my two grandchildren who are more familiar with tornadoes than hurricanes. Let's see where they end up when he graduates this coming year form Iowa State... Home of the Cyclones..