Do the Models See Arthur in the GOM or do they see much ADO about nothing?

You be the judge here???

It forms down near the Yucatan in what is the most typical early June scenario you will see..

Hmmmm weak possibilities with moisture that transfers from Amanda and wiggles it's way East into the Caribbean and then the Gulf of Mexico.

You can follow these models at this really fun model site that plays great chaser music. Turn the sound up and if your computer starts playing "Wipe Out" its coming from this site ;)

http://www.hurricanewarningcenter.com/models.html

Every one's talking about it and waiting to see if the models have been onto something or if they will back off.

Ryan Mauve is talking about it and that ups the ante for me to be a possible believer..

Join the discussion on Facebook from Mike's page from www.spaghettimodels.com
https://www.facebook.com/TropicalUpdates?ref=stream&hc_location=stream

Sort of cool to go online and see this:

Let me highlight the most salient feature on his page..besides the link to his Facebook Page ;)

There is support for a possible system from ongoing positive conditions.

Notice the green lime candy stripe sort of blob in the Caribbean next week... it shows enhanced rainfall.

What's there now? Not much...

Larry Cosgrove explains this excellently 

Larry is a good friend and a meteorologist I respect greatly... 

I've learned a lot over the years from him.. he is one of the best 

Now look at the track of Category 2 Amanda... on her way to becoming shallow... slowly

Remember where Amanda goes... moisture follows... 

How's the water in the Carib near the Yucatan?

Cold like in OBX or bathtub warm like Key West?

Warming up....

You can loop this loop yourself or find it on www.spaghettimodels.com

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/athhp.gif

A weak system like this would be very within the realm of climo which means it would be appropriate. In 1957 in June there was a storm named Audrey. 1957 is an analog year in Dr. Gray's report for the 2014 Hurricane Season.

http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2014/apr2014/apr2014.pdf

Audrey is one of the few early A Hurricanes to make the list of Historic Hurricanes from the NHC.

Check out that list and see if your town was affected by a historic hurricane.. in June.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/outreach/history/

Again.........the 2014 Hurricane Season is almost upon us. Do not let your guard down because hurricanes are a lot like football games. On any given day... your town can be under the gun for a fast forming, quick moving tropical storm or hurricane. 

Stay prepared:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/

Stay informed:

www.spaghettimodels.com

Twitter @Bobbistorm

Besos Bobbi