Tropics Today 2 Days Til Hurricane Season. Rainy Season Begins in Miami. New Blog from NHC

Link to loop: http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l12&region=ea

First some talk on the state of the Tropics and then some talk about new features being put out by the NHC to keep everyone informed

There has been a lot of talk about something possibly forming in the Caribbean in a week or so. This talk started a week or so ago...so the timing has already been pushed off as models aren't consistent. Let's look at two sites that are highlighted on www.spaghettimodels.com to better understand the "why" of this question.

First off there is a green window for tropical possibilities this coming week. Note it evaporates the following week so timing here is everything.

Next, let's look at the actual conditions along side the "tropical development areas"

Not overly friendly and if anything were to develop it would in theory be as close to the coast of the Yucatan as it could get. Shear is an issue in that area and would inhibit anything from forming too rapidly. It would not inhibit "tropical rain" from forming and moving north, but there is a big difference between "rain" and a closed tropical system.

This is a good illustration of why this time of year things form in the Bay of Campeche.

The tropical waves are running low still this time of year and more likely to crash into South America. The remnants of those waves work their way west in the Southern Caribbean and can pump up the moisture closer to the Yucatan. Again, it takes many ingredients to come together at the right time for an actual storm or depression to form.

Click on this link and you will see that if anything does form around the Yucatan it would head north quickly towards the Central GOM. That could change as weather changes in real time even though the pattern is set by climatology. 

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

So... somewhere between all the whispers and innuendo online there still isn't anything out there today. What is not innuendo is the discussion out the NHC which you can read yourself daily. I've been reading it for years. When I was really young I would take a hurricane map and mark off the waves with a pencil to try and get a real time feel for the intricate discussion. Over time it becomes easy to understand. Or you can just read my blog as well as other sources online, watch your local forecasters on TV and follow along on your favorite tropical weather website.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/300556_MIATWDAT.shtml?

Some discussion on that blog of rain on the north coast of Cuba that looks more ominous than it is.. 

"..THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 22N76W...IN 
THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA... 
ACROSS JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 
16N76W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W MOSTLY IN HAITI AND ITS 
WESTERN COASTAL WATERS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 
11N TO THE WEST OF 75W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA."

For the Cup of Joe fans.. Bastardi is tweeting about the possibilities.

Seems a lot of us couldn't sleep last night. Actually, I fell asleep around 9PM on the couch with my previously mentioned migraine. Woke up, went to bed and then woke up again about 3:30 AM. Gave up the ghost of sleeping around 4AM and smiled when I read some tweets online.

As I said... old Miami hobby...watching thunderstorms any time of the day or night. Great visual image there by Greg Nordstrom. Been there and done it many times. Ironically I did read Joe Bastardi's post as I was having trouble falling back asleep. With dreams of Ione, Hazel, Connie and Donna dancing in my head along with other 1950s hurricanes I got up, took a shower and sat down to read a bit. Migraine gone for now. I rarely get migraines, sinus headaches yes, migraines no. Maybe it was some perfume I tried on earlier at the Mall? Who knows. But one thing I do know is Joe Bastardi knows Hurricane History. 

I also know that according to some sources the Miami Monsoons AKA Rainy Season has begun. Some friends have voted and voiced their opinions. As for me I'll quote the Carpenters: "It's only just begun..."

These are all voices I trust so... it seems the Rainy Season got it's groove on just under the wire in time to still say it started in May.

Feel free to give me your opinion @Bobbistorm on just when you thought the rainy season started in South Florida... your thoughts are always welcome. Social media is about sharing and sharing weather stories is something most weather people love to do :)

Another voice I listen to is any voice that comes out of the NHC.  It seems they have joined the rest of us online and started an official blog. A wonderful idea. I've been following the HRD blog for years. Back when I used to print things out that I was reading I would print out things from the One Stop Shop site they ran with discussion on various recon information. Oh what a time it was ;) Anyway...check this blog out as well as the new blog being put out by the NHC below.

 http://noaahrd.wordpress.com/

http://noaanhc.wordpress.com/social-media/ (new blog by NHC) 

To know a blog is to get to know the author of the Blog. So let's take a look at Robbie Berg.

The infamous Miami - Raleigh connection rears its interesting head.
http://www.wral.com/weather/hurricanes/story/11355582/

He worked as in Intern at WRAL under Greg Fishel. When I began commuting between Miami and Raleigh several years ago I asked the locals who they listen to and almost all swear by Fishel the way Miamians would wax poetic on Bryan Norcross.

"Berg: I was an intern at WRAL during my senior year at N.C. State and worked for Chief Meteorologist Greg Fishel.
Read more at http://www.wral.com/weather/hurricanes/story/11355582/#zXRgvUHrkBgham8R.99"

You may read the article in the link above, but if you are pressed for time this about says it all:

"Robbie Berg is a hurricane specialist with the National Hurricane Center in Miami. He earned double bachelor’s degrees in meteorology and marine science from North Carolina State University in 2001, graduating as valedictorian with a perfect grade point average. Berg is responsible for forecasting and tracking tropical cyclones, issuing cyclone watches and warnings and conducting education and training for emergency managers, forecasters and the public. He lives in Doral, Fla., with his cats, Nimbus and Sandstorm.

Berg is a blend of the best in education. Connect the dots and you will see he has learned from some of the best in the world of meteorology. 

B.S. in of Science in Meteorology as well as a Bachelor of  Science in Marine Science from NC State.. 

Graduate work, University of  Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science.

Working on a Masters in Communications from Johns Hopkins University. 

Student Intern at NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado.

A voice most definitely worth listening to and you can bet I'll be reading his blog often.

And, that's it for the tropics this morning. The early bird has finally shut up and stopped it's incessant singing from his perch in the Dogwood tree my kitchen window. My husband is up and ready to go to start his day. Sunlight is peaking through the "natural area" behind our house that this Miami girl refers to as "the forest" and again...as always thanks for reading and following my blog. 

Besos Bobbi

Ps Make a list and then go shopping. 

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/features/bargains/deals-blog/sfl-florida-sales-tax-holiday-for-hurricane-supplies-is-may-31june-8-20140529,0,6223916.story

http://www.weather.com/video/anaridis-maria-on-hurricane-prep-rally-49228