Tropical Storm Boris Heads North towards GOM... after crossing Mexico... Arthur or Just Rain?

As  I said earlier........TD 2E would be Boris.

Done deal as an old friend of mind used to say...

Now along comes possible trouble in our neck of the woods...

The infamous Yellow Circle is Back.. with a 10% chance short term & 20% long term.

Click and loop: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2014060312&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Just one of the many models to look at intimates that a closed low forms in the GOM and moves towards South Florida. Mind you some models show it sitting in the GOM going nowhere any time soon. It is not a "lock" that Boris becomes Arthur. It's also possible a piece of Boris sits down there and gets wrapped up in a newly developed system that might become Arthur. For now shear would keep anything from forming.. or so the models say and the rain totals for the Yucatan and Mexico will be high if this broad system just sits and dumps huge amounts of rain onto hillsides, towns & villages. Tourists won't be thrilled either, but it is the rainy season down there. Note: Even if this stays together when a system emerges into a new basin it gets a new name...that name would be Arthur or TD 1. 

What bothers me most about this model image above is not a messy, lopsided system moving towards South Florida in the rainy season... but the size of the high pressure in the Atlantic. If you will loop it (please) watch the high not the remnants of Boris or possible soon to be Arthur. That's a huge high. Things can and often do change in the tropics but it would steer any tropical system into the Gulf of Mexico with South Florida in the cone of error. 

Here is the track of Hurricane Georges that just kept going around the High that was in place back then. There was constant discussion that the high would retrograde some and he would move NW before the islands, before PR, before Hispaniola and before Cuba. He didn't. The high held in place and so did Georges on his track WNW across more real estate than most hurricanes every seen in the West Indies.

There's a fun store in Key West on Duval Street that makes beautiful hurricane artwork that can be seen in person holding a margarita in one hand or online where you can hold anything you prefer in your hand ;)

http://montagekw.securesites.com/store/merchant.mvc?Screen=CTGY&Category_Code=HMS

My brother has a few of them. Every trip to Key West he stares debating which one to buy to add to his collection.

One of the most popular is this one.. am sure they mean all of the people who left too soon for Rita ;)

To be honest.. makes a great Father's Day gift for some storm chasin, trackin type of  guy :)

Speaking of the rainy season in South Florida there has been a lot of talk about how dry May has been and whether or not that correlates to a theory that Meteorologist Jim Lushine put forth back when he was considered one of the best forecasters around. And, he was as were many of his contemporaries. Before the days of trying to decipher the nuiances of the GFS and the implications of the EURO forecasters did amazing jobs using climo, patterns and oh my goodness...sometimes a gut instinct based on knowledge to put out a forecast. They were thrilled to have satellite imagery and radar. 

An article from the Sun-Sentinel on the Dry May theory.

http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/1993-04-05/news/9302040234_1_hurricane-season-hurricanes-form-jim-lushine.

Part of that larger article is below. 

I'd write more about it, but I'm short on time and preparing for the Jewish Holiday of Shavuos. I would have had more time but we lost power here from some sort of Duke Progress Energy problem.. large outage but it's fixed now. 

As for models for Boris... they are truly Spaghetti Models.

I'll be offline for the next two days for the Jewish Holiday previously mentioned. Everyone goes to Temple for services and then... we eat cheesecake and ice cream! Really... if you don't believe me you can find a place to check it out yourself here:

http://www.chabad.org/holidays/shavuot/synagogue_cdo/aid/511695/jewish/Shavuot-Synagogue-Search.htm

I'll be back online Thursday Night. Until then check in frequently with www.spaghettimodels.com for a multitude of images and information. 

Besos Bobbi

Ps..oh and the NHC ;)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/