Hurricane Harbor: Tropical Development in the GOM?? Arthur or Boris or Zero?? It's complicated...

I'm going to keep this short and simple this morning, because that is the reality of the yellow circle in the tropics. Truth is it is more complicated than a ZERO % yellow circle would imply. But, therein lies the problem. It really is too complicated with multiple parts making it harder to come together.

Above is a yellow circle with a zero percent chance of developing in the short term, but a 10% chance of developing in the longer term of 5 days. This is the new way the NHC plays their game.

In the Pacific there is a red circle on the other side of Mexico with a 80% chance of developing.

Most important part of this discussion is that no matter what happens regarding development there are likely to be destructive tropical rainstorms. See discussion highlighted below:

" Regardless of tropical

cyclone formation, this system is expected to produce locally heavy
rains across portions of western Central America and southeastern
Mexico this week.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides in areas of mountainous terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent"

So now what? Well it's easier to see this set up in a larger picture as one large area of potential tropical trouble. I've drawn a big blue, messy circle around the WHOLE area, because that is basically what it is.. one large area and because most of it is over land it is having problems getting itself together. Drag it a bit further to the SW and it would be Boris in the EPAC. Pull it to the right and it might be a weak tropical depression or even a lopsided Arthur.

Tropical cyclones in any basin need warm water beneath their convection. If they are too close to land.. not much happens right away. The NHC is waiting to see which way it goes, and climo is on the side of the Epac right now. Models are indicating part of it could break off and when the winds die down move into the Gulf of Mexico and ooze it's way towards Florida. The Eastern side of the GOM is more in the wet zone and most likely to continue seeing wet, tropical moisture moving up from the Caribbean traveling through the Yucatan into the Gulf of Mexico.

Have I mentioned it's June in the tropics?

June is never to soon in the Gulf of Mexico....

There is support for something in that region over the next few days...however

the models show it developing a bit further down the road

and the development is iffy..

What does develop for sure is a messy, wet, typical month of June for parts of Florida.

There is something spinning in the tropics, but it's a huge Upper Level Low in the Gulf of Mexico:

Sometimes they work their way down to the surface, usually they do not. They can enhance weak convection and make it look more exciting than it is and sometimes they just drop anchor and sit and spin awhile before finally moving again.

Watch it spin ... wider, larger view of both sides of the basin.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l12&region=ea

Until things change all the models are going to do is hint at this or imply that.

Good discussion on various message boards.True point made here... unusual & interesting.