90L Invest May Become Arthur Later Today... West Bound towards Mexico in BOC

This is the system currently known as Invest 90L being cradled down in the BOC close to the coast. If you remember I said last week that if anything was going to form it would be exactly where Invest 90L is currently. This is partially what we call CLIMO meaning this happens all the time in early June and partially this June's current set up which is..........in line with CLIMO.

Will Invest 90L become 2014's first named storm? They are sending Hurricane Hunters into the suspect area that already has produced Gale Force winds so it's doubtful, though not impossible, that they would make it a Tropical Depression if it has Gale Force Winds. Note that is the reason they raised the chances from 40% to 70% so quickly.  It does show a swirl on radar as if the system has some sort of minute closed circulation. But, it has an even more minute window for development. Wind shear is to it's north and it has a very unfriendly environment for intensification. It may become Arthur later today as it heads west towards Veracruz and other Mexican ports of call south of the border.

It seems every few years we have one early storm form close to land and it becomes the first sacrificial system to the borderlands area of Tex/Mex before we can get on with the season? The only big question remains will  90L get the A name? Note last year Veracruz took multiple hits from the tropics... the hits seem to keep on coming this year. They were later in the year, not early in the year. The first system of last year did hit Florida and was named A

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2013/index.php

To make things MORE interesting ....in a comical sort of way......

The models take it across Mexico back into the Pacific ;)
Got to love the models....... telling you that 2014 is going to be a strange year. That is not a gut feeling it's based on many things that are hard to explain...but just saying it seems the ex-Boris that is now 90L prefers the Pacific. Do not expect it to make that trek... it's just a model. But, something to remember with regard to models.

As for our part of the Gulf of Mexico...

If something does develop in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico it would not be from this system. Models have shown things heating up and then dropped that system on the next run. The High that has held reign over the region is in place and shows no sign for now... of letting go of it's grip.

See loop: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

So....today is all about Invest 90L and whether or not it becomes TD#1 or Arthur later today.

Stay tuned...

Besos Bobbi