Clues in the Caribbean & Happy Father's Day 2014

This was yesterday... a small, sliver of purple in the SW Caribbean...

This is the state of the Caribbean today... the purple circle is gone...

gone with the wind.......

Poof...gone... not there today.......

And, likely nothing will be there tomorrow...

Certain models keep OCD like showing a low forming down in the Caribbean and moving up through the Yucatan towards ____________fill in this blank____________cause it changes often. But, the consistent pattern of something forming bears watching. We are watching... every single model run..

What is more telling is what is up there NOW vs in a model that has consistently moved back the release date of the tropical flick named "ARTHUR" and it doesn't appear he will be making an appearance on Father's Day 2014.

It is worth noting that there is a lot of color down there.. just color.. meaning tropical moisture off the East Coast of Central America. Note, for now it's just moisture. There is also a lot of shear in the Carib & GOM. Shear means BIG BAD WIND as in the Big Wolf is going to come and blow the tops off of the thunderstorms inhibiting tropical development.

As for models..there are a lot of them out there. This morning there is a new Invest in the EPAC. IF it develops it will push back anything developing in the Atlantic. Note..usually years with early storms are quiet so this is not necessarily a sign of things to come. In fact, I think this is a sign of this year being a close to normal year. Depending on when the El Nino really shows his face we will have an average season or an El Nino Season. Time will tell.

Note... sometimes models get a little funky. I'm sure today is Father's Day and not April Fool's Day. Right?

The BAMD seems to like Cleveland... 

well some one has to right?

Seriously? You can't make this stuff up...Cristina is still there but very tiny... 

hanging on in a sea of dry air, on the edge of a sea of dry air

The NHC has this to say about the Atlantic. Read through slowly.. basically says NADA HAPPENING!

"...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO...WITH A 
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE FLORIDA 
BIG BEND TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS 
WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF W OF 
90W.  WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL HOLD IN PLACE AND WILL CONTINUE 
TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS WITH MAINLY 1-
3 FT SEAS...EXCEPT 3-5 FT IN THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS 
BEGINNING TO BECOME SW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN THE GULF IS 
AFFECTING THE NW CARIBBEAN. A BROAD RIDGE WAS DEVELOPING 
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 75W. EARLIER STRONG 
CONVECTION  ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS HAS 
WEAKENED. LARGE AREA OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM 
PREVIOUS CONVECTION COVERS ALL BUT THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN.  FRESH 
TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES ALONG WITH 8-12 FT SEAS WILL CONTINUE 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS UP TO 30 KT NEAR THE 
COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 4-7 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS."

So today being Father's Day I wanted to say a few things about Fathers. Some are with us, some are not. Some died way too young and never got to see us grow up, graduate from college, get married or have our first children. Some fathers lived longer lives and our children got to have memories of them when they were young. Some fathers get to go to their grand children's weddings.. 

One things is a common in our world.. WE ALL HAVE FATHERS.

Sometimes an Uncle is a lot like a father or takes the place of... or an older brother, the guy down the block who was there for you when your father had passed on...   

My younger sons live by their uncle in Miami, they are very close with him. They go to college and Miami Marlins Games and often down to Key West for a long road trip. My father took me on road trips often as a real estate appraiser. He would often say, "I have to go down to Key Largo to do an appraisal, want to come along?"  And, I did.. 

My father passed away 10 years ago. He danced at my wedding ... He danced at my daughter's wedding. He gave me my first hurricane tracking map that he picked up from some gas station and told me I could call the Miami Weather Phone Number every day and get coordinates and mark them on my map...and I did.

A lot of great father's out there.. some are my own kids. Amazing, but true.

So here's to the father's who are there for us when we need them. The ones who take us to ball games or coach us in ball games or for hot dogs and pizza and ice cream and tell us things like "don't tell your mother" which I know my father did a lot.. often...  In fact, my children have memories of him saying "don't tell Bubby" when he stopped on the way home from picking them up somewhere and getting them a snack at the bakery.  To be honest he was like Santa Claus with that bakery. Years back he would go to Temple for morning prayers, swing by Paramount Kosher Bakery on Washington Avenue and barter with Helen who worked there for a good deal on the "Day Old Rack" and then before my kid's left for school he'd drop a big bag of day old cookies, donuts and snacks for them to take to school. Helen loved bartering with him... he used to call her "my girlfriend" jokingly and she would tell me years later how she'd wait for him to come in every day to buy snacks for his grandchildren adding she knew he'd buy a lot and she looked forward to his coming every day. She was very proud of selling off the day old delight. Years later Helen worked for me. Helen had come to America with 2 small children, never learned how to read or write well and when the kids were small she got a job in a bakery... 40 or 50 years later she was still working in the bakery. She no longer needed the money, but she liked to keep busy.  This isn't about Helen as much as remembering people who worked hard to make sure their children had the best of everything, and Helen's kids did. 

There are fathers who take their kids to the beach before a storm, during a storm and after a storm. 

Weather seems to run in families. 

My uncle was an old Florida Boy... he loved going fishing on the rocks on the MacArthur Causeway when there were rocks on the MacArthur Causeway. Sometimes he'd take his boat out. He made our lives fun, really fun.. he was the best. He died when I was young, very young. Now you can't even find pictures of the big slabs or rocks on the MacArthur across from Sunset Island where old timers would catch fish. He would tell me stories of the 1926 Hurricane that he lived through as a little boy and the aftermath...and the stories. He would remind me over and over that I was smart and beautiful and could do anything I really put my mind to... and I remember that always when nervous or worried that he had faith in me.

My father on the left... with the long gray beard.. because he grew old with time. 

My uncle on the right frozen in time in black and white pictures as a young man... as he died in late 40s.

THE U on the Left... taught me to sing Canes Are Dynamite for his Alma Mater ..

My uncle on the Right taught me the words to the Gator Fight Song.. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XItqiT-9-zI

F-L-O-R-I-D-A

My father was a good man. He put up with my mother (a some what difficult woman) and it's the odd things you remember. When we lived on Miami Beach he would drive over to the Miami Herald Building to get an early edition of the Sunday paper for her every Saturday night. Then she would lie in bed reading the Sunday paper...on Saturday. When I was little I would go for the ride. If it was the hurricane season I wanted to see the new map they put in for whatever hurricane there was out in the Atlantic and a ride across the causeway in those days usually meant watching the shrimpers that filled the Bay with their small boats and little lanterns catching their pink gold. 

Miami.. lots of memories. Florida fathers...  My uncle took me to the rodeo at the Orange Bowl. Who remembers when there was an Orange Bowl let alone a rodeo there??  

We all make memories, if we are lucky, with our fathers. And, in real time, children every day are making memories with their fathers... or uncles or older brothers. My youngest son has a lot of older brothers.. someone, somewhere is always telling him what to do. And, my son Levi learned how to be a father watching his younger brothers. It's a chain... a long chain.. in the chain of life.

Happy Father's Day...to the newest Father in our Family...

Practice makes perfect... with his baby brother...

Then there are the step father's with two beautiful girls........

My son Moe and his baby Judah...now walking & talking back ;)

My friend Mike who runs www.spaghettimodels.com with his two beautiful daughters..

He's a good father... love his videos and pictures and thinking one day..

he's going to be learning a few things about the weather from those two girls because...

weather runs in families...my son Levi sent me pics of a lightning storm over Key Largo the other night ;)

Look at those girls... adorable. Really... good parents.

And, probably the best father and son team one day will be a child named Chase and his father :)

Got to love giving a child the name Chase :)

To be honest I did think of naming my youngest Barak as he was born during a massive thunderstorm

over Biscayne Bay... yes that is what I remember from his birth... the weather ;)

Barak = Thunder in Hebrew.. but nah went with another name :)

And, me with my father... in a very old picture before he ever had a beard..

before he knew he would have grandson's name Moe and Levi to go pick up from school...

...when they got in trouble and he'd take them to the bakery and say

"Don't tell your mother" 

Besos Bobbi

Ps... to my brother Ronnie for being there so often for my kids... 

....and for all the trips down to the Keys...chasing storms & making memories together!

Happy Father's Day

Love Bobbi :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7FGbhpr2pg