IFFY Maybe... System forming off the SE Coast.. Where's Arthur?

There is a small purple dot in the Western Atlantic off the SE Coast that shows a small possibility of tropical development.

No that wasn't moonlight or magnolias over Alabama yesterday it was an East bound Low Pressure System headed out towards the Atlantic that might mix it up with some warm tropical moisture that has already been lingering way too long near a stalled out frontal boundary. That my friends is what many a system is made of when we talk on "close in tropical development" and this is about as close in as it gets considering it's currently cruising East over the Carolinas...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xAbCxSWhhEw


http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?region=clt

Ironically there isn't much to see this morning, but as the heating of the day goes on and on...it will fire up again. Last night we had a rocking and rolling thunderstorm around 2AM in Raleigh. Nice to see the sky light up (or what I could see through the pines...) but no rain, nada...nothing.... zippo. Zilch.

There is a 0% yellow circle somewhere over South Carolina. Zero. It really isn't a zero as much as a "HEADS UP" that something might form soon in this here general area... so keep it in mind when you go out Saturday or Sunday on your pre-July 4th weekend boat trip. It's the same way we watch tropical waves over Africa before they rain on the beaches of the Cape Verde Islands. Isn't it comforting to know there are weather stalkers out there somewhere watching even while you sleep...for something...somewhere to twist and turn?

You see the tricky part of reading these maps from the NHC is you have to read the small, fine print. Formation chance through 5 days...low...20... percent. You don't see me now.. but you might see me tomorrow.

So... keep watching.

Another cool map that Mike has up on www.spaghettimodels.com shows potential tropical formation. It's these models that show us what we can't see with our eyes when looking at the radar. So...the 20% chance is based on models, note the CYA by the TWC on that one.  In reality forecasters who really know their climo and know how to apply it to the current weather patterns can look at the sats and see without the models there is something to watch ............especially as an old frontal boundary (and I do mean old) is sitting there waiting for some young thing to come along and get it going.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GStCtA2ErcQ



This is an odd year. We've had late season flooding in Minnesota and the Mississippi River is approaching record heights in some places. We had more twisters in California and the Carolinas than Oklahoma.

Seems like the only thing in Oklahoma twisting this year is the girls doing country line dancing and that's good because Lord knows they need time to clean up the mess from last year.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bF-YE_zFBzI


So... keep watching as this could develop once it hits the water and connects with what is already there in an area that is favorable for development with VERY LIGHT WIND SHEAR. That means without the strong winds aloft that are present in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean ...something could form HERE.

Note... we have been running a few weeks ahead of the game this year. Ask around I've heard it everywhere from Carolina to Florida to Seattle and that's a lot of "wheres" as flowers are blooming early. June bugs came out in May. Azaleas are competing with Magnolias in Wilmington. In Seattle they did not have their typical Junary weather as it was flirting with the 80s when I was there and the sky was blue and beautiful. So, let's treat this end of June as if it was about July 10th. That's my feeling.

I should be back later today to update this if it needs updating. For now.. it's a watch and wait and trust me if you take the lid off the pot the water will eventually boil.

Besos Bobbi
Ps. I'll say it again. No early June system is a sign of an average season not a slow one. Often the seasons with the early storms burn out fast. Average seasons are meant to last into the summer and early Fall. Keep watching... things are going to heat up real soon.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKpQRjj_WbU