Once & Future Tropical Storm Arthur... Still watching the SE Low

Short update this evening with regard to the now 10% chance of tropical development off the SE Coast.

I'm going to highlight the discussion out of the NWS in Wilmington, NC that is one of the closest places to where this "system" may come off of land into the water. Also, they do one heck of a job with their forecast discussion.

".SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...REMAINS OF A FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA
ALONG WITH LINGERING OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION WILL
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
SAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE BETTER OF THE 2 DAYS WITH DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN OVER 2 INCHES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO THE SPECTER OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE COAST ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. WHILE THE CHANCE THIS
SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IS LOW IT WILL ENHANCE
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...FURTHER INCREASING MOISTURE AND
POTENTIALLY ADDING SOME LOW LEVEL FORCING. BUILDING MID LEVEL
RIDGE...WHILE NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT SAT...IS
LIKELY TO RESULT IN A DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE SUN...AS WILL THE
SOUTHWARD/EASTWARD DRIFT OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD.

MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT DUE THE BUILD RIDGE.
THIS WILL KEEP STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE WEAKER SIDE...LESSENING
THE WIND/HAIL THREAT. IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE
ON THE ORDER OF 5 MPH AND POSSIBLY LESS. DEEP MOISTURE...SLOW STORM
MOTIONS...AND DEEP WARM LAYER(FREEZING LEVEL REMAINS ABOVE 15K FT)
MEAN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
FLOODING."

Notice their concern on localized flooding. A real concerned even if this system does not get a name. I think it's possible "something" spins up fast and then sits around possibly looping back and forth off shore until the drama is ready to play out. That means it may drift SE a bit towards SC and the Florida/GA line and then back up towards the Outer Banks or places north.. or it may do nothing but rain.

Charleston NWS says a bit more on their thoughts as to what does or doesn't happen.. high pressure builds in and it slowly falls apart. Hmnnn

"A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA AND PASS

OFFSHORE BY LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN LINGER OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN SHIFT OVER THE AREA MIDWEEK...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE AREA LATE WEEK."

Notice they both are NWS offices, but they do their own discussion.

SAT-SUN...(MODIFIED PREV DISC) WL BE WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE INITIALLY OFF THE GA/SC COAST SAT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTHWARD TO OFF OF THE NE FLORIDA EAST COAST SUN.

You see all the NWS offices have one thing in common. They are watching the weather for their particular area. The NHC watches the tropics for everyone and they do get the bottom line when and if advisories begin on the A storm.. be it this system or the next one.

A great place to get up to the minute information is Twitter. You might want to bookmark them.. they do a great job.

@NWSWilmingtonNC

Earlier post showed what needed to be shown.

And, lastly may I say Jim Cantore as always does the best tropical updates. Not to say the official one isn't good, but listening to him discuss the satellite loops on air is more fun than than watching him at the beach. You always learn so much. His emphasis this afternoon on the light shear that would enhance conditions for development of a system if one gets going. That is what I said this morning. The MAIN reason we are watching this system is that the conditions down the line due to light shear give this system that could become Arthur a sweet spot to sit and spin a bit.

Besos Bobbi

Ps... check out my last post for more thoughts and some good song links. Any surfers or just plain old weather lovers may want to check out this link for a good look at the once and future possible Arthur from the perspective of a surfer.

http://dabuh.com/latest-possible-homegrown-development-east-ne-florida/

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2014/06/iffy-maybe-system-forming-off-se-coast.html

Great Book to read... heavy reading but excellent look at history.
http://www.amazon.com/Once-Future-Terence-Hanbury-White/dp/0441627404