NHC gives Invest 91L a Red Circle, Ups chances to 80% formation long term.

I'm not awake yet, but our Invest is quite awake...he is just quietly awake and biding his time. A sneaky sort of guy. But, he is there. Watch this loop below and note how the first good morning visible pops out and shows the details. Again, the devil is always in the details. Without the visible satellite image below you would think the system was closer to WPB & Miami rather than off shore of Melbourne. Either way, please note, it went way further South than most of the models showed it would yesterday. That was a slow trot to the South, not a drifting about almost stationary as many online and on air had said it would do yesterday.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif

If you watched the loop you would see how clearly visible the center is and also how partially naked it is on the north side of any real convection.  That should change over time and I emphasize the word "should" as that means it "could" but might not. Should is an iffy, preachy word..but it relates to Arthur this morning.

Sneaky center of the once and future Arthur, but not ready for prime time just yet Invest 91L. I highlighted the center in yellow in case you missed it squinting through the Cumulonimbus to the South of the true center.

The NHC gives this a bright RED circle this morning and expects it to become at least a Tropical Depression. That is what is called by many hedging your bets.   :)

It is given a 60/80% chance for development. Sixty in the short term, 80% in the long term. A friend of my Stuart taught me to think in short term/long term ways. Seems the NHC has caught on to Stuart's advice.

The official line from the NHC is that conditions are improving and surface pressures are dropping and despite a less than stellar presentation this morning they are most likely going to have their first real discussion put out on a Tropical Depression in the next few days.

" Shower and thunderstorm activity remains minimal in association with

a low pressure area located about 140 miles east-northeast of
Melbourne, Florida.  However, surface pressures are falling, and
environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for
development during the next few days.  A tropical depression is
likely to form by mid-week while the system moves slowly
southwestward and thens turns northward and northeastward near the
southeastern United States coast."

What does that mean for you?

Well the Invest did ratched up the level of the Miami Monsoons yesterday. This picture was taken from my once and future daughter-in-laws apartment in the Williams Island area...

One minute it was sunny and bright at the beach................and then it was not.

Down in Big Pine Key, that some call BPK for sure... my friend Pat which I guess stands for P could not keep the door shut against the strong winds. They blew in fast... 35 to 45 mph gusts.

If you watch the Water Vapor Loop you'll see it was as if it was sending down storms to areas to the SW of the center much like King Zeus.

See... Arthur/Zeus sent a big storm down to SW..

you also see that the front is leaving him behind... 

he seems too far south for the next one to get...

which leaves the one behind that one... to grab him..

maybe..

I'll leave the visuals to Mike right now as I'm on the road and short on time.

www.spaghettimodels.com

There is only ONE image I want you to think on right now.. in the short term..

Eventually... "Arthur" goes NE... 

NNE or NE... 

but he is forecast by the NHC to turn back and hook back along the NE Coast.

Again...read the discussion I posted above from their morning discussion...

Now...that could be OBX and not Long Island... 

but....hard to say right now as we are talking models

and storms yet have yet to form..

Easy $ is it goes out to sea... but we will see..

Besos Bobbi

Ps..on the road some where in Mary Land. If you are anywhere near Florida..

Enjoy the rock and roll ... pop up storms that will form and watch

the Invest dance on the radar off shore :)