I have received emails from people as far away as Maine and as close as Miami. Everyone seems to have Irene's name written on their house. It's been a long time since I have seen a storm that threatens everyone from Miami north as far as Maine and Long Island.
Truth is there is a hurricane partially over land in the tropics that is intensifying and that to me is an odd thing to happen. Rather than the Dominican Republic taking a bite out of Irene, Irene seems to be taking a bite out of the Dominican Republican as she hovers just off shore and her SW quadrant firmly on land. She has gotten wider, bigger, stronger.
The GFDL had her doing that and I thought the GFDL was smoking something. Now, I'm wondering what the GFDL saw the others didn't see and hoping it's wrong in it's Category 4 Miami landfall scenario. Quietly waiting here for the next run..
Out of morbid curiosity I went down to street level on a fantastic model site and I see it comes in just south of Gables Estates around SW Guadalajara Streets down in Pinecrest, it moves it across Old Cutler Road and up towards SW 125th Street towards Dixie Highway and keeps on going near Dadeland Shopping Center and out towards Village Green off of Bird Road. It's like Irene would be traveling the streets of my childhood. The next run will probably bring it over Miami a bit further to the east near the Road Section and Brickell or destroy Hollywood Boardwalk :(
Of course, there is a good chance that it's going over Raleigh and I'll miss that one while I'm back home in Miami, how's that for irony?
You play with it. Great site Channel 7 has in Miami and a really great job Phil Ferro does going over all possible scenarios. I am very impressed.
What do I think?
I think that Irene is missing the "for sure" trof and I am not sold on the new system that is supposed to lift her sharply north.
And, it's too soon to tell. A lot depends on Irene herself.
A Major Hurricane carries a large high a loft that tends to sometimes strengthen the high and help it build it vs retreating. They also tend to keep on going in the direction they were going due to inertia and other laws of science I am not up to explaining but suffice it to say... they turn slower and continue on trucking in the direction they choose. It's a factor that is a wild card and IF that happens and plays out, then we will see what we will see.
The incredible Gulfstream Jet is going out later and it's going to sample the atmosphere around the storm and up stream of it where it will go and with that data the next set of models should be much better.
At some point, someone round here is going to have to decide if Miami Dade County and Broward get a watch or warning, glad I don't have to make that call.
And, in Charleston weather people are eyeing Irene as seriously as we are with butterflies in their stomach and dreams of Hugo dancing in their head.
Maybe someone is living in Mt. Pleasant morbidly trying to figure out on google earth just what street Irene slams into their town.
And, remember it's a long way out and models shift and cones track and nothing is set in stone, it's fluid and the world's most fascinating reality show happening in front of us in real time.
I only hope and pray that Irene continues to miss making a dead on landfall as she has done so far... maybe come dangerously close to South Florida (like the NAM) and slide past Cape Hatteras and keep on going missing Long Island? What do you say? Can we make a group prayer here.
All I know is since day one... I was sure that Irene would crawl across the north coast of Hispaniola and go "up over the islands" and beyond that... I am still not sure but I think it's gonna be a close call.
Look at her... Category 2 in all her beauty.
Again... why is she getting stronger over land and which model saw that coming?
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011
DATA FROM THE LAST AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AROUND 1700
UTC INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS STEADY AND THE WINDS
HAVE NOT CHANGED DURING THE DAY. SINCE THEN...HIGH RESOLUTION
SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND A
CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...SUGGESTING THAT IRENE
COULD BE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING
Again... the newest advisory confirms that she is strengthening.
"7:50 PM AST Mon Aug 22
Location: 19.7°N 68.7°W
Max sustained: 100 mph
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 981 mb"
That's a real ummmmmmmmmmmm and it worries me that the GFDL called that.
Take care and I'll be back later with more thoughts when we know more.
What do I really know? I'm going to the beach on Wednesday, that I know for sure.. beyond that... only time will tell.
Sweet Tropical Dreams, Bobbi
PS... since I hit send the new model came out and takes the GFDL over my friend's house in Boca.... so glad Gables Estates is off the hook. Is anyone off the hook for sure.
At 5PM the NHC Discussion was as follows:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/2100Z 19.5N 68.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 20.1N 70.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 20.8N 72.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 21.5N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 23.0N 75.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 26.0N 78.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 29.5N 79.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 34.0N 79.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
HOWEVER, in less then THREE hours she was at 100 MPH???
That's a real busted forecast in my eyes, why is the question..
So.... I leave you with this question... I'd like an answer....
The National Hurricane Center predicted at 5 PM that Irene would be a Category 2 in 24 hours. THREE HOURS LATER.... Irene is a Category 2 with 100 mph sustained winds. IF the NHC missed the intensity forecast that badly... I have low confidence in the rest of the forecast. You can't get the intensity wrong and the track right...