There's Something About a Cat 4 Hurricane Off of Miami... Irene at 11PM

There's something about a hurricane in the Turks and Caicos that suddenly makes it seem a lot closer to Miami. There's also something about a possible Category 4 storm off the coast of Miami on Thursday that makes even a chatterbox like me quiet.

I've been staring at a loop for a while now, obviously too long and after talking to my best friend and my brother... I'm still not sure what to say except that I have a bad feeling about this and unless she jogs north a lot fast and/or the models pull east fast I think this is about as close at it gets to a worst case scenario for Miami.

Mind you..many a storm has cruised by on it's way north along 77w or 78w. Floyd was such a storm. Somehow though I think this could get closer than Floyd. I remember Floyd well, made several trips to the beach... took tons of pictures and sat late at night watching the foamy surf pounding in. The roar of the wind was the strongest I've heard since Andrew. While taking pics, a wave grabbed me.. I tossed the camera onto the beach and spent the next several days trying to take sand out of parts of my body I do not want to mention on this blog. Got great shots... the sand had a feel to it that I have never felt before. Hard, gritty, churned up from places far away and left behind as Floyd went north. Not your typical Haulover sand...

Reed Timmer tweeted this earlier and it sounded logical and possible. A similar sort of track, though Floyd started out higher and turned faster and it was obviously a different sort of high. Different time of year too.



I like Reed, he's smart and fun and has energy and he's right... similar feel to Floyd.

@reedtimmerTVN
Reed Timmer
Irene reminds me a lot of Hurricane Floyd.. first tropical cyclone I chased. Floyd was initially heading for Florida as well

First storm I got great pictures of myself as it sailed past Miami.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Floyd

Floyd was a really big, huge system much like Irene is and will be.

Miami has the following wind speed probabilities at 11PM tonight, Monday... pretty high odds if I was a betting person:

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)

FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 25(62) 1(63)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 17(28) 1(29)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12)

W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 43(45) 16(61) 1(62)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 13(29) X(29)
W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12)

MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 35(38) 10(48) 1(49)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) X(20)
MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)

I know I am focusing on Miami but Miami would be one of the first cities to be impacted in the U.S. by this storm IF the high built in or the steering currents shifted. The discussion out of the Hurricane Center tonight was not very convincing and they left a door wide enough to sail a cruise ship through as to just where this storm will be on the 4th and 5th day.

Note below:

THE NHC FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND HWRF
MODELS AFTER THAT TIME....

.....IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMIND USERS NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR
AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...
RESPECTIVELY.

So, I'm going to leave you with this question by my best friend a little while ago:
"what the hell kind of a storm turns into a cat 2 storm while still it's over Hispaniola??" And, she thinks it will be a Cat 3 sooner rather than later.

Going to post some links below and try to go to bed.

As for me.. I plan to go to the beach on Wednesday. I also plan on having strong winds on Thursday. I plan on praying a lot. I have a plan, but really who has a good plan for a Category 4 storm flirting with making landfall in Miami? Will see. It's a long ways away. Just looks closer on certain satellite images, and then.. it will look a lot closer tomorrow night at this time.

I predict panic level in Miami to set in around 5pm tomorrow unless something big time changes with this track.

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/goes/Storm/Tropics/latest_wv.jpg

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/index.php?region=tropics&channel=wv

Sort of speechless watching this link:

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/CaribbeanSatellite.aspx?animate=true

An excellent forecaster in Raleigh weighs in:

http://www.wral.com/weather/story/10028170/

A beach I think could get this storm is Ocean Isle Beach, a beautiful south facing beach in North Carolina though it could just as easily could and most likely will affect Wilmington if it affects anywhere. Great place OIB, take a visit and enjoy:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_Isle_Beach,_North_Carolina

Let's see where she is at 5am and how big she is and how her track has changed.

Sweet Tropical Dreams, Bobbi