Irene Intensifying ... good news/bad news

I know how my mother feels, she is right and I have to admit it. It's the same old story all the time. The newsmen tell you that the high mountains of Hispaniola will disrupt the storm. As she says, "I'm not stupid, been watching these storms for 50 years and then they come off of Haiti and Cuba and hit the hot water and intensify again." And... she's right.

A weak storm that is not "vertically stacked" falls apart over Haiti. A strong storm that IS "vertically stacked" and that is HUGE can make it across Hispaniola a whole lot easier. Then again other factors come into play, such as forward speed. Georges kept on going...

Vertically stacked means vertically it is "together" unlike some storms where the lower level core is displaced from the mid level circulation. When a storm is properly stacked she is like a Diva.... she intensifies rapidly, she evacuates air out properly, she fans out and become a large round ball with bands feeding the storm with more moisture. She becomes a lean, mean fighting machine capable of setting off the same amount of energy as an Atom bomb... or stronger. Katrina and Camille are two storms that are perfect examples.

I am not saying that tonight at 10:30 Irene is there yet, I am saying she could be there sooner rather than later.

I've watched Irene all night, while dealing with some personal family drama. Sort of speechless at the way she is doing her thing down there and we are doing our thing up here...which is watching and waiting. The weather radio says "possible tropical storm force winds or hurricane force winds Thursday" yet everyone online is trying to wish the storm towards their particular part of the world in some morbid fascination with "I want a storm, I want a storm" and then when it's a Major they are suddenly, "No, I don't want the storm, I don't..." Maybe it's the way we deal with life, some moth to the flame fascination.

I'm often accused of "loving hurricanes" and to that I will agree but I like to love them when they are safely out to sea and just close enough for me to go to the beach and feel their breeze.

My mother is right. This is one of those storms and the forecasters will try to explain fifty ways we won't get this storm when we all know it's very possible we will and the NHC keeps their cone just close enough to not be able to sleep well at night.

Tonight is a good night for sleeping, there isn't much you can do. If you are in Puerto Rico it is a bad night for sleeping and a good night for hunkering down and listening to the wind and saying thanks to God that she did not get any stronger.



I tried to convince my mother to go to bed. She's already got her bag semi packed to go to my brother's house, even though her condo here which is well sheltered between buildings and on a low floor and has an inner room is probably safer than Casa Schwartz as we call it. I tried to get her to go to bed, I told her I was going to bed. She told me, "Aren't you staying up for the 11 pm advisory??"

My father had Alzheimer's. She does not. And, she knows a thing or do about reading between the lines when it comes to hurricanes in Miami. She monitors the weather, tries to read every line on the bottom of the scroll as her hearing is bad. Not so bad that she did not hear them say it might be coming this way.

Run this loop:
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?chnl=wv&domain=bah&res=4km&size=large&period=720&incr=30&rr=
900&banner=mkwc&satplat=goeseast&overlay=off&animtype=flash

You really don't need to wait for recon to send a report nor do you have to see if the NHC will up it to Hurricane at 11 or just let it flirt with Hurricane strength.

But we will wait...and we watch and that is all we can do with a storm this far away.

My biggest problem with this, other than worrying it's going to make landfall at stronger than a Category 2 is the shear size of her cloud shield. She would cover the state of Florida and half of Georgia at this rate. She is one of those really, big classic Cape Verde sort of storms. She has a high aloft and she's got a lot of living to do... to quote a song.

So.... monitor, plan, watch carefully and in between get out there and enjoy life and the beautiful breeze because that same beautiful, non-stop breeze I am feeling tonight in Miami may indeed bring trouble this way.

Great site for tonight as Irene begins to ravage Puerto Rico:

http://www.stormcarib.com/

My prayers go out tonight to the people or Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, they are the ones dealing directly with Irene vs playing a "what if" game.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101110&loop=yes

The question remains tonight, how many times can you hit refresh even when you get the advisory texted and emailed to your account?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#IRENE

Okay.... two thoughts on the 11 PM which is finally in...

1... They kept it a Tropical Storm but I really think that's debatable. Not enough definitive information from recon most likely. 70 mph is flirting with Hurricane intensity.

2... Tropical Storm warnings up for the Turks and the Caicos. That is when people in South Florida begin to listen up...

11 PM

LOCATION...17.9N 65.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM WNW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

3... (extra credit) "TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM FROM THE CENTER. " Tropical Storm force winds extend out really far, note again what I said about this being a BIG storm size wise.

Nite.... from Miami, Sweet Tropical Dreams Bobbi
Ps... I can hear her moving around out there, my mother... not Irene...she's going to watch the 11pm... going to be a long week around here.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/024913.shtml?5day?large#contents