Home in Miami... or as my "friend" calls it "Ground Zero"
He has such a good sense of humor....
To be honest, this far out most of Florida is Ground Zero as is Nassau and Bimini.
It's just too soon to tell and that's the truth.
It's not too soon to stock up on hurricane supplies "just in case" and make a plan.
And, that might just go for you folks up in Charleston as well:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/GFSTROPATL_12z/gfsloop.html
Every model is whacky this afternoon. One takes it into the Gulf and the other zooms it up offshore Florida into the Carolinas.
Today Miami is "Ground Zero" tomorrow it might be your town...
As the plane landed this morning, the pilot announced a gentle breeze out of the Southeast. And, I thought to myself... "damn" as beautiful as the Southeast breeze is in South Florida it is that very same Southeast Breeze that could bring Irene this way...
This is why we love www.flhurricane.com...excellent discussion and analysis as always:
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=91345&page=0&fpart=2&vc=1
The 12Z Model Run Down:
GFDL does not really grasp it at all, and shuffles it to the west and keeps it an open wave.
HRWF takes it over eastern Cuba and the run ends just before approaching South Florida. as a hurricane
EURO In caribbean, south of Haiti, through Eastern Cuba, up into South Floida and along the spine of Florida along the eastern side of the state. as a hurricane
GFS Operational: In Caribbean South of Haiti, Through Eastern Cuba, up into the Keys Friday, and straight up the center of Florida, leaving the dirty (NE)( side of the system in S. Fl, E CFl, and Jax. as a hurricane
Canadian: In Caribbean, Over Jamaica, over Western Cuba into the eastern Gulf. Run Ends before US Landfall.
NOGAPS: Caribbean, over haiti, eastern Cuba, into Eastern Gulf, and then near Tampa at end of the Run.
TVCN: Into Southeast Florida, and through the Spine of the State, out at Jacksonville.
I can't say it better that that. But, if you live and die by the models you will have a nervous breakdown by Tuesday, possibly Monday... They will swing back and forth and the National Hurricane Center will do the best job it can do to unscramble all the data and put it into a reliable format that we can all understand.
NOTE: That scenario over Florida with the East Coast cities being on the Dirty Side would be a bad scenario and effect many, many people.
People are shopping a bit today. Publix is putting out the water and batteries display, the water is slowly going. They will restock tomorrow. A lot depends, they told me, on what the track is at 5am tomorrow. We take it day by day, sunrise by sunrise in the tropics.
So... until we get to a strong 3 day cone with Miami in it... I'm not going to panic. Just going to do my thing with my friends and watch the storm as she moves west towards Puerto Rico.
Besos Bobbi
Ps...watch for the models that stay the most consistent, not the ones that wildly go right when the storm temporarily "relocates" a bit more to the east or north or etc, you get the idea. Watch the storm and she is forming a CDO which looks a lot like an eye, yet they insist she isn't stronger wind wise... hmmmm. Easy to say some dry air has entrained itself into the storm but in the exact middle of the strongest convection? That's a big "hmmmmmnnn" and I'm curious to see what they will say at 5PM. For now the 5 day forecast in Miami is for "wind" on Thursday and Friday...
Ps sorry for the italics but that's what happens when you post and talk to Sharon at the same time ;)
posted by BobbiStorm @ 11:46 AM
2 Comments:
Don't you feel the least bit uneasy or uncomfortable about wishing for a hurricane to hit a populated area? It's almost surreal reading your posts about how excited you are about the possibilities.
Ground Zero references? Wow.
Nah.... that is called humor or dealing with a scary situation in a way that makes it easier to cope. And, again I said it was for a "friend" who referred to Miami this morning that way. He obviously wishes I was in Wyoming or North Dakota this week but my mother is having a procedure on her eyes on Monday and it was the main reason for this trip. A second procedure on Friday, if the storm is not around.
Miamians learn to deal with hurricanes and usually they slip away, fall apart or go somewhere else. Not always, as I was in Andrew who did not blink and he moved steadily west towards our beautiful city.
My friend calls it "ground zero" I call it one of the most beautiful places on earth.
Understand that tropical systems serve a purpose, they transport energy from the equator towards the poles, they move moisture around. It is the way the world works.
I'm excited at the possibilities and how much we have learned in predicting and forecasting. They are the world's biggest meterological mystery there is... they put Ellery Queen to shame.
There are so many possibilities and it is a very fluid situation. I've been in many a hurricane and tropical storm, the energy in them is amazing to watch from a safe place.
We pray for small storms that cause little damage and prune some trees. We fear Major storms and the annoyances that Category 1 and 2 storms bring.
AGAIN....now is the time to prepare and that is my message.
The local weather radio is blasting that message in Miami... stock up on supplies, renew your medication, buy canned food, etc...
To pretend they don't exist is folly, to believe they will not make landfall is a worse folly and this is the message.
Landfall is what is often thought of as ground zero but the truth is the danger is often inland... such as Floyd in North Carolina taught us.. don't focus on the coastline cities where all the reporters are camped out... focus on the real people, inland and along the way.
Storms are exciting in their way. As natural disasters go they are the one I would chose. You can prepare your home, gather your family or friends, hunker down and hide from the wind and run from the water. You cannot do that with a Twister or an Earthquake ...
I don't wish for a hurricane to hit any area... but I do wish for the people in the area that it will hit to be prepared and that is my message. It's one of the few things you can prepare for in life, don't be one of those "oh it will turn, it won't hit" and realize too late that there is no water left and no wood and you have no plan. Now, that I am uneasy about... and so I try to spread the message.
Thanks for your thoughts
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