Home in Miami... or as my "friend" calls it "Ground Zero"
He has such a good sense of humor....
To be honest, this far out most of Florida is Ground Zero as is Nassau and Bimini.
It's just too soon to tell and that's the truth.
It's not too soon to stock up on hurricane supplies "just in case" and make a plan.
And, that might just go for you folks up in Charleston as well:
Every model is whacky this afternoon. One takes it into the Gulf and the other zooms it up offshore Florida into the Carolinas.
Today Miami is "Ground Zero" tomorrow it might be your town...
As the plane landed this morning, the pilot announced a gentle breeze out of the Southeast. And, I thought to myself... "damn" as beautiful as the Southeast breeze is in South Florida it is that very same Southeast Breeze that could bring Irene this way...
This is why we love www.flhurricane.com...excellent discussion and analysis as always:
The 12Z Model Run Down:
GFDL does not really grasp it at all, and shuffles it to the west and keeps it an open wave.
HRWF takes it over eastern Cuba and the run ends just before approaching South Florida. as a hurricane
EURO In caribbean, south of Haiti, through Eastern Cuba, up into South Floida and along the spine of Florida along the eastern side of the state. as a hurricane
GFS Operational: In Caribbean South of Haiti, Through Eastern Cuba, up into the Keys Friday, and straight up the center of Florida, leaving the dirty (NE)( side of the system in S. Fl, E CFl, and Jax. as a hurricane
Canadian: In Caribbean, Over Jamaica, over Western Cuba into the eastern Gulf. Run Ends before US Landfall.
NOGAPS: Caribbean, over haiti, eastern Cuba, into Eastern Gulf, and then near Tampa at end of the Run.
TVCN: Into Southeast Florida, and through the Spine of the State, out at Jacksonville.
I can't say it better that that. But, if you live and die by the models you will have a nervous breakdown by Tuesday, possibly Monday... They will swing back and forth and the National Hurricane Center will do the best job it can do to unscramble all the data and put it into a reliable format that we can all understand.
NOTE: That scenario over Florida with the East Coast cities being on the Dirty Side would be a bad scenario and effect many, many people.
People are shopping a bit today. Publix is putting out the water and batteries display, the water is slowly going. They will restock tomorrow. A lot depends, they told me, on what the track is at 5am tomorrow. We take it day by day, sunrise by sunrise in the tropics.
So... until we get to a strong 3 day cone with Miami in it... I'm not going to panic. Just going to do my thing with my friends and watch the storm as she moves west towards Puerto Rico.
Ps...watch for the models that stay the most consistent, not the ones that wildly go right when the storm temporarily "relocates" a bit more to the east or north or etc, you get the idea. Watch the storm and she is forming a CDO which looks a lot like an eye, yet they insist she isn't stronger wind wise... hmmmm. Easy to say some dry air has entrained itself into the storm but in the exact middle of the strongest convection? That's a big "hmmmmmnnn" and I'm curious to see what they will say at 5PM. For now the 5 day forecast in Miami is for "wind" on Thursday and Friday...
Ps sorry for the italics but that's what happens when you post and talk to Sharon at the same time ;)