Hurricane Irene at 2pm 80 MPH moving WNW at 12 mph

Quick update here.... and I will post at length later this afternoon after the 5pm comes out.

The Navy puts out a map that is most excellent and worth keeping an eye on:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/pages/tc11/
ATL/09L.IRENE/ssmi/gif/full/Latest.html

With every jog west or north the track will change a little bit. it is important to remember that the 4 and 5 day forecast is prone to errors of over 200 miles which is why the cone is so wide at the end of the cone. The 3 day cone is excellent and if you are in the 3 day cone... prepare.

Everyone from Florida to Long Island seems to feel "they will get the storm" and yet there is no lock in on the track. No "for sure" track. Many possibilities and probably closest to what the NHC says currently.

Personally, I feel like if it pulls north it is more likely to pull further north than the Charleston and landfall would be closer to Wilmington. IF the high digs in and the fronts weaken, she will move closer to Florida.. much closer. It's an either or scenario.

It's really a matter of climo vs the storm. Very few storms have taken the track from where she is now to where the NHC has her coming in around Charleston in their current map. I am not saying that couldn't happen, am just saying Irene would be the first it seems.




I'll be back later. If you are not in the 3 day cone... relax, think, watch and stay prepared because again if this one does not get you.. the next one might.

Besos Bobbi

Ps note that this is predicated to be a Major Hurricane... and a Major Hurricane can and often will change the steering currents which becomes a factor down the line.