Hurricane Irene 7 PM Friday Night... So, what really will be?

Track:


I think basically most of New York will have a strong tropical storm. It is possible it will make landfall as a hurricane, but it's unlikely. The winds are decreasing in intensity, however the wind field is growing wider which is normal for hurricanes as they move north.

North Carolina will get a solid hit out on the Outer Banks, however they are pros at this. It is part of their lives, their history and as routine as going to the store is for some people or preparing for a Nor'easter in the Winter. The roads will wash out, a few houses will slide away and parts of the beaches will be rearranged. The outer banks get a secondary sort of storm as water washes over from the Atlantic to the Sound side and back again. Then again, that is why the Outer Banks look the way they do, as that has happened over and over since time began.

The big problem is that even if this storm comes in as a strong Tropical Storm or possible borderline Category 1 Hurricane it still can and will do a lot of damage in the New York area. People forget that Manhattan is an island, Brooklyn has a beach and both Queens and Brooklyn are filled with lots of bays and inlets and marshy areas. Staten Island is...duh an island. Both major airports are ON the water... which could put JFK and LGA out of commission for a day or two best case scenario. The subways can flood. The Holland Tunnel could flood. It will be a massive pain in the neck if the rain does fall and the flash floods do happen. It doesn't have to be a Category 3 Movie Disaster sort of storm... just a good strong Tropical Storm and or Hurricane is enough to make life a real pain in the Big Apple.

Everyone is erring on the side of caution and I am sure many instead of being grateful will be pissy and cry hype and complain. Be happy if all you get is a big mess and not terror at midnight!

Currently she is not strengthening but she is moving steadily towards multiple landfalls.

Here is a great site with intricate detail on flooding and maps down to street level and individual neighborhoods of NYC.

http://googlemapsmania.blogspot.com/2011/08/new-york-evacuation-zones-on-google.html

Use it if you need it and if you don't but know someone who might, pass it along.

http://project.wnyc.org/news-maps/hurricane-zones/hurricane-zones.html

Here's a good link from the Huffington Post on how to stay connected in a storm or try to....

http://project.wnyc.org/news-maps/hurricane-zones/hurricane-zones.html

Good luck...if the towers go all the fully charged batteries in the world won't help you...

From Bobbistorm: Remind loved ones you will call them and let them know where you are staying and not to worry if they can't get through, it usually means the circuits are busy and/or the towers are down. Keep your phone changed nonstop up until you lose power, keep it plugged in and then TEXT don't talk as it uses up less power.

A visual cornucopia of hurricane links and images from "Mike" :)

www.spaghettimodels.com

NC site: www.wral.com <---- the site everyone goes to in the RDU area and beyond.

Again...this is NOT Hurricane Floyd. This is NOT the Great 1938 New England Hurricane.

This IS Hurricane Irene.

From a historical perspective I want to show how storms that have hit the NE and Mid-Atlantic can and have done devastating damage from domes of water that were pushed inland on beach communities and where rain fell in amounts that caused flash flooding.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Hazel
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gloria
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Donna

These three ladies did huge damage up and down the coastline both inland and at the ocean.

Another thing to remember about this storm is although it's satellite signature is of epic proportions it's mostly a massive rain event with tropical storm force winds. The cloud cover is only cloud cover far away and the rain and storm winds are closer to the center and the wide area around the center that is rapidly getting wider and the winds decrease in intensity.

Also.... NJ is getting it before NY so all those beach cities such as Atlantic City, Cape May are all under the gun as well.

Lastly.... I really think that it was overkill to insist this would come in up north as a Cat 2 and 3 as now people see it getting weaker in wind speed and they are less likely to prepare or take it seriously. You can't put the milk back in the container so easily so it is what it is... live it, enjoy it, remember it and stay safe in it!

As for me.. I'll be back after Shabbos and will be hoping my kids who are strung out across the Brooklyn area will be safe. As for my NC friends... I think they will be fine.. i hope..

Remember that cell fones go out... they go out fast. Stay calm, don't panic and watch the storm. And, if you never bought a battery operated radio (remember them...) or Weather Radio now would be a really good time to get one and while you are there.. buy a lot of batteries.

Besos Bobbi
Ps...a pic of the beach in Miami as Hurricane Irene passed by offshore. Very South Beach in a storm. Check out the jellyfish up and down the beach in the front of the pic.