BLUE SKIES.. BLUE OCEAN... Blue Blue... Blue... Nothing Happening Day 7,591 of nothing

BLUE....


BLUE...


okay...it hasn't been THAT long... well actually been at least since November 9th of last year I believe ...give or take since we have had anything with a name to talk about.

This is the sucky list from 1997. If I had my say I would have ANA taken off the list. Change it to ANNE or ANNETTE or ANN maybe...ANN-DREW, OH MY... Oh help. I am doing stream of consciousness these days. I think I am losing my tropical mind :(

I have done some good writing and have learned much about the Carolinas. I have learned that they are grasping at straws off the coast of the Carolinas watching that frontal boundary for something tropical to talk about on the weather up here. At the bottom end of that trough in the Keys they are probably also talking.

But...the rest of the ocean is blue... blue... blue... no orange, no red, no magentas... very little color anywhere except for collapsing cape verde waves and frontal boundaries that keep firing up afternoon thunderstorms.

I am still think late September or October storm in Florida as tropical weather catches the trough express that is parked across the Southland as some thing shoved the Jet Stream South this summer... I am wondering if I will get to see an Ice Storm this year.

OH LORD... help.

So this is my song for the day and no it's not too tropical but neither is the Atlantic.



Otherwise I keep watching The Weather Channel. I cannot bear the Al crap going on. I am sorry, I don't mean to be mean. It's nothing personal. I am sure he's a good guy, nice man but I don't want to see him on THE WEATHER CHANNEL and do not like their constant depressing news stories with live "breaking news" and fluffy dumb down the weather with the most over used footage of people being interviewed on some dock and holding up signs that read "we wake up with AL" Help me lord, just take the channel off and replace it with a channel that plays non-stop Hannah Montana videos!

My daughter loves Hannah Montana. Doesn't bother me. I like her show more than the Wake Up with Al but....then I had the biggest crush on her big daddy ;)



Besos Bobbi
losing my mind waiting for something to track... don't even want to think on the last time we had a year like this.......... gonna go make expresso with my beautiful expresso maker from my beautiful, crazy friend!!!

rolling eyes...

could that guy sing or what???

It Didn't Form. Back to Square One.

I guess that is the best way I can put it.

I spoke to my best friend Sharon tonight who is online finally and she said it is a Long, Hot, Slow, Boring Summer. She is the original "El Nino's Gone Girl!" so trust me.. she knows what happens when El Nino is back.

Slow season so far.

Still watching this loop, fits my mood. Still moisture in the Bahamas and a set up in the Carib that makes me think something could form.. but probably won't. Lordy, Lordy as my brother Jay says...

There is a thin, stream of convection along the ITZ but I refuse to even look at Africa tonight.

You look at the image from above. You find me something that is going to spin soon and you win the prize. The NHC has Avila on tonight and he has erased all the Yellow Circles and taken command of Starship Enterprise.

As for me I am going to write an article about El Nino and then go to bed. No, not for my blog or any website, just because it's all I can think of to write on and have 27 more bottles of beer on the wall lol.. I mean articles to go.

And, gonna stare at this loop til I see something...

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/index.php?region=tropics&channel=wv

Here's one of my favorite songs by two of my favorite singers and let's say we are playing it for the biggest player on the loops tonight... El Nino.



God, I love Willie. If he ever passes away from this beautiful blue-green earth I am going to get drunk on Tequila until I puke and then do it again..... seriously...

Love that song...

Maybe Something Coming Together in the Bahamas... Bahama Mama Dancing??

First of all I just want to say this is one of the weirder Yellow Dot Specials from the National Hurricane Center. A little Top Heavy if you ask me. Wouldn't you say? I mean.. well.. Does that mean if this forms it would be a Top Heavy Ana or a bit of a Flaky Bahama Mama a little over the top and drunk on too much Myers Rum?

The point here is... something IS going on. Is it too little too late or is this the development the models have been insistent on for the last few days?

Check out this water vapor loop courtesy of the LSU site:

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/index.php?region=tropics&channel=wv

Starts off looking like a hobby horse rocking back and forth in the Ocean and suddenly some metamorphosis starts to happen and it's no longer a hobby horse but a round, ball of intense convection. And, it seems to be just sitting there trying to come together. Shear is dropping over the region I believe and water temps are high. Even the winds are picking up in the Bahamas and pressures are not that high ...

If you want a really excellent kick ass discussion which is one of the best you can get online, on tv or on the radio... Check out www.hurricanecity.com and hit the little Tropical Update in the upper right hand corner. Best thing is you don't have to wait til 10 minutes before the hour like on TWC... you can watch it now or as soon as you finish my blog.

No, I am not paid by Jim Williams to promote his tropical update..I promote it because no one does it better than Jim. Really...

http://www.hurricanecity.com/update.htm

Excellent discussion.

Or..you can follow the yellow bouncing balls from the NHC and read their well written but detailed discussion for yourself. But, Jim explains it in a way you can understand all the mumbo jumbo.

Discussion below from the big boys at the NHC.

As for me, I went to the library here and got my library card and checked out Jay Barnes "North Carolina's Hurricane History" to read. Otherwise... writing and watching and doing what I am doing while I sit unemployed trying to think what I am going to do next with my life. I also organized my novel and started putting it back together into some form I can work with and ... finish writing it.

http://www.amazon.com/North-Carolinas-Hurricane-History-Barnes/dp/080782416X

Gee... I so love the way Jim says "North Carolina" lol.. check out his update and he explains what may happen if it continues to develop as it seems to be doing.




000
ABNT20 KNHC 221746
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION
OF THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS ARE MERGING WITH THE ACTIVITY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/ROBERTS

(Thank you Mr Beven and Roberts for all your hard work.. relax and hear a Bahama tune)

Will Something Tropical Finally Form Close to Florida?

This is what Ole Joe at Accuweather likes to call "Home Brew" or something like that. Maybe he comes from a long line of moonshiners I don't know but often things do form close in just off the coast of Florida. One minute there is nothing but stormy weather and the next something has a name suddenly. Other times its just a lot of stormy weather.

The models have been begging for something to form in the area between Cuba and Florida somewhere just west of the Bermuda Triangle and coast along the coast..or just transgressing the coast from Florida to the Carolinas. I wasn't sure we haven't had a Martian Mind Meld and they were just trying to amuse me during this slow period in the tropics.

But...no as if just in time for the Prom the NHC puts up a YELLOW circle over the area that Steve Lyons has shown a few times the last few days between his surf reports and other Lyons Den trivia.

To use a term I like to use, a Bobbi term.. there is a "weather boundary" along the area near South Florida at the end of what was a long, dangling frontal boundary. The frontal boundary is not as noticeable. The above big round ball of weather IS and there have been constant tropical downpours all week. I know it's the rainy season but this season has been longer, harder than many in a long time. And, if there is any kind of hand off of energy from the moisture that flew off the top of the wave to the South that got transferred into this tropically unstable region..

Something could happen close to home.

Remember...the Navy Invest for the WAVE below has a track which right now shows a pattern that would take it up into the area where the NHC has posted it's second yellow circle of the day.



Something to think on and watch the next few hours and see if something pops.

Trust me...somethings gotta give in the tropics soon.

Besos Bobbi

Wave Still Alive in Tropics Battling Shear.. Eclipses and and rain in the carolinas

Listening to the rain fall outside this morning. Have figured out that when it starts to rain that loud, annoying, throbbing sort of bug sound stops! Bless the rain.. thunder too though very light rain. Not real Miami boomers..

The wave in the tropics is still there, battling shear and moving slowly westward. Surprisingly looking good today, deep, concentrated convection. Just have to wait it out and see if it can make it past the wall of shear that exists this time of year in that region.

On another front the sky will be putting on a show tomorrow.. a long one in fact but it won't be going on over our part of the world. A long, total eclipse of the sun will be seen over India and China. You can watch it via the wonderful world of the internet.

http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/eclipse.html NASA site.. or try the one below

http://www.solar-eclipse-live.info/

Not sure if this will work but will check it out tomorrow... or later today.

Take care and keep watching and enjoying life...

Besos Bobbi

Yellow Alert Up for Tropics & Severe Wxr in Oklahoma and Vermont along STRONG Frontal Boundary..and pics from my new home..

Okay, long title there but hey... it's late and the crickets are out making some sort of obscene noise and my mind is all over the place...

So... the NHC's newest TWO upped the ante from the nonstop boring "no tropical activity .. " to a slim possibility of tropical development in the Far Eastern Atlantic "several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands" according to the most excellent tropical forecaster known as BEVEN. A small yellow circle appeared on the NHC's wonderful website when I got back from my evening walk.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Yes.. a YELLOW circle. Amazing. July not August and we are looking out far across the Atlantic. Why is that so interesting? I was wondering on my walk why there are so many trees here with yellow leaves and even some with orange. Little tufts of orange leaves? I know I am not into the seasons and have been told it has to do with a lot of rain a while back... maybe the cooler summer temps and nice cool evening temps? I don't know.. how could I possibly know but I do know I watch everything and I wonder.

Mimosa? Is this a mimosa bud? Someone told me it was..




Blue skies with funky clouds that we do not have in Miami in the summer.



And, I walked down the cul-de-sac and up the cul-de-sac to the ridge where I watch the sunset and enjoyed a pretty picture perfect view this evening. I was going to simply come on and post the pics but whoa (as a friend of mine says) there is a yellow circle.



What there also is ..is a whole lot of severe weather across the weather maps from Oklahoma City to New England and why? A strong cold front, an unusually strong cold front for this time of year.

Check out the strong weather up in New England.. almost as strong as in Oklahoma?



So.. I am wondering why it seems more like Mid-August than it does Mid-July both here and across the Atlantic Ocean?

Otherwise...doing fine. We went for ice cream tonight. I got a kid size, no sugar added delicious caramel something covered with chocolate chips treat. And, when I got back from my walk I sat outside on the deck in the back yard and watched the fireflies dance about. I am wondering though if the fireflies disappear when the obnoxious crickets come out to rock and roll?

Don't know.. just learning.

But ...as the tropics go... keep an eye out in the Atlantic on the persistent, stubborn area that is hanging in there and could possibly continue to develop further. Maybe...


Oh...and don't forget the pretty crepe myrtle in all colors... something other than GREEN to look at!

Interestingly... Larry King is doing a story on JFK Jr who died 10 years ago. Amazing how ten years has passed. Amazingly, I was thinking on that night a few times recently. I'll never forget it.. stayed up with a friend.. let's call her Linda and she was talking about it and Martha's Vineyard and oh ... amazing late, long IM online. Amazing what you can remember. Amazing what you find while going through your things. A very sad night for so many, especially those who know that area well. Funny thing is ..about five years ago I was walking at night, looking up at the full moon and I remembered that IM almost perfectly. Go figure... Hey, I do have a life besides hurricanes and the tropics ..ya know ;)

In NC listening to the rain fall... watching the tropics on News14

I have never seen a city so weather intensive and yet the severe thunderstorm was so weak. Channel 14 News is doing nonstop weather on this "severe" outbreak and I have heard one soft rumble in the distance despite what looks like bright orange on top of my house. It's sort of funny, sort of overkill, sort of fun... but the rain falling is so gentle. They are showing some weather cam of a picturesque street and perfect looking church in Fayetteville.

He thinks the severe threat has tapered off... Really, I so agree. But, I am so happy to be lying in bed, listening to the rain fall and watching radar on TV nonstop and it's not even TWC. And, I am wondering what it will be like here if anything actually forms in the Caribbean. Sort of exciting in a way, newness... very cool.

"On the Ones" they show the weather and they show a wide open .... oh wait... I hear distant thunder again... (must be that cell over in New Hope).. they show a wide open satellite image and the whole tropical basin.

Very cool. Have I said "very cool" already, the rain is cool too by the way...

As for the tropics...there is even less going on in the tropics than in this rainstorm.

In the Pacific... there is a busted forecast as Carlos was expected to intensify and hasn't really noticeably and am wondering why..not that it has been so busy there but still..should have intensified some.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west.html

So... that's it from North Carolina..

On a personal note, we went for a ride yesterday to Oriental. My husband knows I miss the sea, and I love sailboats and he heard there were a lot of them there. He found a ferry that went from nearby Minnesot Beach (didn't look like a beach..) and so we took a long drive and a ferry ride that was incredible and saw some of the most beautiful sailboats up close and personal sitting in Pamlico Sound which had the most amazingly incredible smell... so real, so nice.

http://www.coastalguide.com/NCferry/Cherry-Branch-Minnesott.shtml

Check out the gulls flying along with the ferry... trust me a much nicer ride than over to Fisher Island on the ferry ;)







Have a beautiful day... Besos Bobbi

El NINO.. NO Tropical Activity.. Modoki?

Well... today the news has come out from the Climate Prediction Center that says this is an official "El Nino" of sorts and we have not yet sorted out what kind it is..

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring
/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

Neither have we sorted out how strong or what it's name is... but we can hear it quacking.

Modoki means.. "similar but not the same" so y'all might want to remember that for a trivial contest if you are taking Philosophy 101. One could write volumes on how similar some things are but not quite the same.

Not sure which of these is Modoki or it's friend ...because they are similar but different ;)



If it quacks.. it is a duck. Peking, Mallard or White-winged Scouter... it swims, it has feathers and it goes "Quack! Quack!"

http://www.ducks.org/hunting/waterfowlgallery.aspx

I am wondering if some Asian group of lobbyist will complain we have given it an Asian name and will demand we change the name to one with symbols or letters and numbers such as "@%$!! El Nino" or "E42S El Nino" but the point is not what it is called but what it will bring. How it will affect our hot and dry summer or keep the rain falling on places that are already water logged.

And...where will storms track? Where will they form?

So many questions... and we will have to watch to see how they are answered because only this similar but different El Nino will tell the story and give us the answers. And, as they say hindsight is 20/20.

Waiting for Time Magazine to come out with some sort of Anime Cover Drawing for this particular El Nino ... the one in 97 got big play.. how will the media handle this one I wonder? Can't wait to see...

And, why do El Nino Years always coincide with major upheavals in my life? Must be some karma, astrological question I would pose to Miss Cleo if I only knew where to find the charming shaman!!

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,986853,00.html

As for me... I have found out the following trivia about North Carolina.

There is a region known as the Sandhills but I can't seem to figure out specifically where it is... somewhere there was an old continental shelf... well you can read for yourself ;)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sandhills_(Carolina)

Looks like my backyard........ anyways...

Take care and be well and all the best ....Good Shabbos!

Besos Bobbi

Extra Credit Reading: http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2006JC003798.shtml ;)

Not Much Going On In The Tropics...

Have you noticed? I think you have...
Strong winds across the tropical basin are making tracking a thing to remember..

Climo will come around and change things soon.. I am sure.. but for now... the only real storm I could find was this one...



Nothing much for me... trying to get my bearings and figure out what I need to do first.

Went to a Durham Bulls game last night... cute... very cute, nice night. Maybe post pics later but going to take a walk for now and think on life.. not too hard mind you.

Besos Bobbi... if anyone in Raleigh knows where I could get a good cuban coffee... please advise..

Leaving On a Jet Plane... to North Carolina..

I still think its a bit crazy to be moving up north to be living down south. But, I am moving up to the very Southern, coastal state of North Carolina in a few hours where my husband is waiting and my wicker dresser is waiting and my new life is waiting...

So much waiting, waited so long in so many ways and now the moving day is finally here.

Not much going in the tropics but my tropical friends insist things are changing and soon we will have tropical weather to talk about. And, I will be blogging about it from the Carolinas. Actually, looking forward to see how they handle the tropics on the nightly news up there.

A strong high is in place and yet frontal boundaries are still moving across the continental US. It still doesn't look all that friendly to me. And, truth is climo says it doesn't really get going til August. Will see if that new funky Modoki El Nino materializes or just the same old El Nino. As only.. time will tell.

Enjoy the song... enjoy the sentiments except that I am leaving with a wedding ring but every place I go I will think of you .. my online friends.

Besos Bobbi

Flooding Rains & TWC

So, my best friend Sharon is right...that scroll is way too darn slow. By the time you get past the cords they give out and "..which can down small limbs" scrolling so slow you can fall asleep watching it.. by W time it gets to the real info your electric will go out from a close lightning strike!!

Was so hot today in Miami, I mean hot and sort of dry as the high pressure area to our east tries to move in and then the sea breeze and land breeze collide and wham, bam, thank you mam we have torrential rains and the whole sky turns deep purple.

It's grumbling again to my west as I type this, a deep guttural sort of grumble that bespeaks even more severe weather than I just saw.

My son in Aventura just called and asked me if there was a tsunami or something? There was 2 feet of flood water in Aventura parking lot and in Biscayne Blvd. While we were speaking the mini cooper in front of him stalled out and had to be pushed out of the street.




Barely any rain here at my house just to the south of Aventura.. a stunning rainbow came out and covered the sky.



This is Miami in the summer, in a rainy summer when people look heavenward and worry if the rains will spoil tomorrow night's fireworks.

God has his own fireworks tonight it seems.

As for me, personally speaking, I spent the day cleaning up the house, watching people take furniture that we put out on the street. Sort of like some reality tv show. Everyone inside is going "take the sofa, take the sofa" and when he does.. everyone cheers. I hope Juan and Maria enjoy the china cabinet.



It's amazing to pack up your life and watch bits and pieces sitting here and there, found treasures in the back of the closet my pink Boston Redsox hat, blue and white pom poms, old license plates and things left behind by the kids that they once loved but no longer want.



And, as the scroll goes 2303z 302DEG....and back to blue I notice they must have cancelled the severe thunderstorm warning.

From Cuba, New Mexico to Portland, Maine I wish all my closest friends and family a wonderful July 4th!

Stay dry... Bobbi

Uncle SAL VS The Boy Child - Hurricane Season 2009

Well seriously...every year around July people begin writing the Obit for the hurricane season because ______________________, ______________________ and _______________ are going to be a BIG problem and every tracker, researcher and tropical met gets moody.

Once, long ago we used to say someone needs a long stay at a place named the Neil Frank Home for the Tropically Insane ;)

Thinking now days we need a big Sandals resort on some tropical beach where we can drink Hurricanes and light incense and dance the tango in hula skirts and Hawaiian shirts.

I can tell things are getting bad by the number of texts I am getting in the morning around the time the Tropical Weather Outlook comes out.

SAL:
Read about it here:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/misc/sal/info.html


El Nino:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Niño-Southern_Oscillation

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/elnino/index.html

Both of these things can have a strong effect on the 2009 Hurricane Season.

Trying to keep this simple here as there are so many big words to use but .... dust is moving west as it so often does this year, wrapped up in African waves and along the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone.

El Nino creates strong winds from west to east that tend to blow apart waves trying to develop and move this way.

The waves get caught in the cross hairs..as a friend of mine likes to say.

Doesn't mean we won't have a season just it's not going to be 1995 or 2005 again this year and am sure most of those living in the tropical basin will be thrilled. But, to think you don't have to worry is misleading, you do... stock up on batteries, on water, on supplies and keep watching.

Don't ever let your guard down because when you do..is just when they sneak up on you.



So.......will see if SAL upsets the tropical cart or if El Nino will huff and puff and blow the tops off the clouds ... time will tell.

If you are really losing your mind and/or bored silly... check out your favorite 80s musicals on youtube :)

Here's 3 of mine... that mean so much to me..hey, was the 80s... and I lived it in L.A. No hurricanes of the tropical type..











Night..sweet tropical dreams..

Rainy Day, Far Away Waves. Nothing Happening

Rainy Day in Miami and across many parts of the USA it seems. Even on Cape May it's raining far away.

There is a beautiful wave off the coast of Africa but it's not going to get a name or a number, it's just pretty to look at and reminds you that time is moving on and soon it will be August. And, if the Gulf of Mexico and areas closer to the US are shut down because of the current set up then we will look down the road at storms forming and coming in from the east.

Sort of brief post today just to say nothing, mark time and move on.

Yesterday was my last day at the College where I work. Going in today to get my check and give over some keys and take care of a few things and then I am on vacation for the next week. Working vacation anyway, have to shut down my life here and move up to North Carolina where the rest of my life awaits me.

These last few days have felt like I am away at a Bed and Breakfast in Miami, two suitcases worth of clothes and books and notes and nothing but some old furniture that is being tossed. And, watching the rain fall... and looking for a sunny day to go out and play in Miami one last time.

Great Rain video... great song.. Besos Bobbi

http://www.yallwire.com/player/blakesheltondontmakeme.html?detect_mediatype=flv&detect_bitrate=_700&big=1