Sunday Night With Drudge.. One Last Time and Bobbi's Tropical Update

First off ... weather wise... it is raining in Miami... it is windy in Miami, tropically so but not very wild and not sure anything is really forming in the Bahamas except for a mass of wind and rain that may be called a Hybrid or a subtropical or a wanna be Tropical Storm. As always in the tropics you just sort of watch, wait and feel the rain on your face and smile.

Yes, I know sounds like we are a bit nuts down here in Miami but then... no snow, no dust storms, no twisters to speak of and no earthquakes. Trust me... the feel of rain on your face or wind rushing at you wildy while you stand outside in the velvety night watching the lights far off on Collins Avenue twinkling like a backdrop made for a movie set being filmed far away in Hollywood or Canada on or on location in Hawaii somewhere... They don't look real. Sometimes my friend Miami is too beautiful to describe, as palm fronds dance in the tropical night and squalls blow by and disappear in the warm darkness which caresses you as you spend a moment outside at midnight giving thanks for living here in Miami... and no volcanoes blowing their top into the northwestern night.. i love Miami...

But..tonight I'm listening to Matt Drudge give what seems to be his last scheduled broadcast (giggling... boy can that man qualify his statements) on KFI online, a link to the past in far off Los Angeles a city that I lived in, loved and never could figure out how to spell it's name properly. LA.. The City of Angels!

Yeah, I lived there in the 80s... great place, from Signal Hill to Rolling Hills to the top of La Cieniga down to the Odyssey disco on Beverly or somewhere like that.. I loved LA. My ex-husband and I used to go out for long rides at night while listening to Randy Newman sing I love LA lol and I did... we did. Worked at this job on the edge of a studio, watched the Space Shuttle re-enter with a bang and a boom overhead while the studio truck came and delivered my coffee and morning snack. Worked on Wilshire Boulevard.. how many people can really say that and used to share a tofutti on Sunday afternoons with my best friend at the Rodeo Collection when we needed to get away and talk, good old Tofutti.

Funny how many places Drudge and I have lived .. must be some strange cosmic astrological connection in our strange charts but well...

I'm reflecting tonight a bit on oddly same things he is while I am talking, yes up Santa Monica.. Sherman Oaks, driving the Ventura Freeway in my mind and remembering watching the hills in Hollywood go up in flames one night as we drove back from the Valley into Hollywood late at night... the fire on the mountainside to our right so warm you could feel it before going through the canyon.. back into the city. Yeah, LA in the 80s was great and then............I ended up back home in Miami but I still Love LA.




Like Dorothy landing back in Kansas except well Miami isn't exactly Kansas anymore than Smallville is filmed in America lol.

I'm digressing.. I'm lost tonight in memories and thoughts.

I can't believe Drudge is going off his regular routine and yet I believe it, he needs to.. we all have needs and right now Drudge needs to attend to his life and his needs, his priorities... not ours. I'm sure once the election heats up he will be back.

I remember the first time one of my Steves sent me a link ... Steve is a lot like Drudge. They have the same "hmmnnnnn" lol and well, anyways and then there is the other Steve or Stephen or Steffan lol who has the great music which fills my closet, my drawers and every place I hide them with CDs filled with great music and more versions of Windmills of My Mind and Fields of Gold that I can imagine anyone has... and summer in the City and Wichita Lineman, smiling... oh lord it's not easy being Bobbi and I am sure it's not easy being Drudge either.

So.............where was I?





Bahama Blob... B O R I N G. For now anyway but I am grateful to the nice system that is sending me a windy night. Funny, my ex-husband always hated the wind and I always loved it. Not grounds for divorce but figures but then I understand why he didn't like wind. Not important here but I'm like the perpetual little puppy, probably some cute annoying cocker spaniel sitting in the car with my face into the wind and my wavy ears flapping about and I look happier than a pig in shit. Pig in shit.. rolling eyes, stupid phrases.


Bahama Blob.. b o r i n g.

Karen... wow, is she something else.. still going somehow. I don't know how but I find it hard to figure out how there is not some center there somewhere...





http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html
(nice isn't it? find me the center and I will find you the head of Alfredo .ol.. oh lord I am lost tonight.

I have spent more Sundays of my life the last several years listening to Drudge. I have given up football games, given up other events to sit, go through bills, go through my writing and organize my life for the week while listening to Drudge.
And the music... even when he annoys me or briefly bores me... I love the music.

Drudge is an original, like Holly Golightly, he is an original fake and that makes him more real than most people out there in the world.

As a librarian I have used his father's site www.refdesk.com more times than I have watched the fog roll in when I lived in Long Beach, that's a lot of times. Do you know how beautiful a full blooming jacaranda tree looks against a pale white gray foggy morning filled with late night clouds and early morning low clouds? Do you know how beautiful the Pacific looks from the top of PCH or up around the curve on Palos Verdes? Do you know how the Valley sparkles in the summer night when parked up on Mullholland? Bet you don't.. I do. I feel sort of blessed in ways. Then again I never walked the beach with someone at Redondo Beach and watched the sunset so there are still somethings to do left I suppose even if I will probably never get to do them. Deep sigh. "Don't look back Bobbi, don't look back" But how can you look back at something you never did?

So... anyways... I'm watching the remnants of Karen. I'll watch the SW Carib because if anything is really going to develop it will probably be there and ride some frontal boundary up into our world in Miami and South Florida.

What is Drudge talking about? Yemen and volcanoes? I'm hearing him wrong lol.

So................not going to bore you how many episodes of General Hospital I watched this morning with my daughter Dina on Youtube but now she knows why Scotty has always hated Luke and I realized how much I loved watching it for years.. and One Life to Live. God bless Youtube lol and google.

So................. enjoy the wind if you live in South Florida and be glad you don't have to worry about foggy nights and volcanoes in Yemen (???)

Know that as amazing as your life has been (all of you) there are hopefully amazingly beautiful things left to see and do. Maybe the love of your life is around the corner or the chance for you and the love of your life to sail off on a yacht to Greece or Katmandu.

When I was a little girl with my cousin we used to read the "for sale" ads for yachts in the Miami News or Miami Herald. I wanted a yacht. I didn't want a car, I didn't want a plane, I didn't want a bike.. I wanted a yacht. I still do. Yet, I have never sailed to speak of and am not the world's greatest swimmer. I'd like one of those cute little blue houseboats that are anchored in the Garrison Bight in Key West. I want to walk hand in hand in Santa Monica... or stay in some cute little bed and breakfast in St. Augustine or maybe some neat place near Savannah. I want to watch a nor'easter from Nags Head. I want to see if Martha's Vineyard is really as nice as Key West and... I want to stand with my crazy friend and watch a big jet zoom overhead or watch them bitch that they have to "go find a bathroom" lol rofl.

Oh lord.. oh lord..

And, KFI is talking about Torrance Blvd...and I do remember the patch of land where the people would farm their fruit or veggies and the mall where the merry go round went round and round and the horses they went up and down while I stood feeling funny watching the children go round and round and feeling like there were way too many people watching.

The past is past... the future is around the corner, I'll have to find something else to do on Sunday nights and I'll miss Drudge's giggle, his sense of humor, his love of the news and his "hmmnnnnns" while he wonders on the wonders of the weirdness of news in the world.

From Santa Monica Boulevard from one end of the world to the other... we will all miss Drudge on Sunday nights, but part of life is about watching people go .. people come, people we love who change, grow old, grow ill, move on... in an ever changing kaleidoscope of colors, sounds, shapes, scents and songs that echo through the windmills of our minds.

Me? I'll be just fine, but I will miss Drudge.. on Sunday Nights.

No.. I won't call in ... I've sent my thoughts, I've said whatever I am going to say and ... I only call Jim when he makes his broadcasts and when in the mood, we all have our priorities. Sometimes I enjoy just listening and right now tonight I am enjoying listening to Drudge.. on KFI online.

Watch that blob, keep an eye on Karen... two months left of the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season and thank you for indulging me in this long, rambling post on my blog.

Thanks for the memories, thanks for the music.
Bobbi

A Wet Day of Watching in Miami

Gonna be a really wet day of watching and waiting to see if anything develops out of the Bahama Blob currently creating lots of rain and wind across the South Florida landscape... a wet, windblown sort of gray day landscape too.

Woke up at 4am to heavy rain, tropical rain... windblown rain, torrential rain, sideways rain and strong lightning, flashing crazy lightning. Rained for hours and now there is a break in the rain. Gray cool skies and intermittent gusty winds.

Dolphin game at 1.. sort of kills the day. Don't want to watch and don't want to miss it. Might have gone away for the day but I am too die hard of a fan to get stuck on the road somewhere with cruddy reception on my little gizmo and not be able to watch some Dolphin Debacle unfold before my sad little eyes.

As for the tropics...

Karen lives, I don't care what anyone says. She is crawling along firing up strong convection and somewhere there is a center because it's not erratic, it's constant and consistent and that much colored convection means there is fire somewhere. Old adage you know.. you can't smell smoke without there being some sort of fire. This isn't virtual tropics we are playing, it's not paint by the numbers and these satellite images are not paint shop they are REAL.

So.... this is my take on Karen.
The upper level low is enhancing her convection and keeping her in the show. The shear is lessening but is still a factor. Water temps can't be that bad. IF she has any center there she will go for it.. she has a real will to live and glad she is entertaining you ;) and I know you really hate to write this one off ala Ingrid who was basically a cold hearted bitch compared to Karen. So.... I know she is the underdog of underdogs but if any "wave" can come back to life it would definitely be this one. Time will tell... so we watch. She might not make a comeback.. but while there is color... concentrated color... we may as well watch. Not much else to watch unless you want to stare at a blob in the Bahamas which will probably become some Hybrid storm with some name just so they can keep the numbers high... and issue advisories... got to give Avila something to do so he stays out of the fruit department at Publix talking to managers or the media..

Love you all... going to watch the fins and old TV and then think on what to do for the rest of the day.

As for Sukkos... it stopped raining just in time to go have wine and challah in the very wet sukkoth and then the rest of the 3 day holiday was beautiful, relaxed, spent time with my friends, family... good books, magazines, watched the clouds and it was good.

Now.. I'm watching the rain... I'll be back later today when there is something to really talk about tropically speaking.

For now.. enjoy... the great Karen at her best..

5PM Update on Karen and Tropical Systems

To start with close to home...

It's still raining but it's beginning to lighten up enough to think maybe we will be able to make kiddush in the sukkoth. Wine, challah...whatever, important if you are reading this and understand. Partial street flooding here and there. See picture a block from work on Collins Avenue.

Now.. quickly, as for Karen... IF Karen is affected by shear and stays weaker expect her to make it further west than everyone is expecting. At some point she will have a chance to go more to the north but already models are starting to bend back to the west at the end of five days so... we are a long way from knowing the end of the story, it hasn't been written so you can't peek.

Note this paragraph: However...if the shear continues to adversely impact
Karen's ability to maintain symmetric convection...then the cyclone
may be significantly weaker than predicted here.



As for the system over Florida known as 98... it's supposed to move off to the NE .. and one model, GFDL even has it looping back a bit. Stay tuned.

Steering currents are not very set as I have stated.. TD 13 keeps looping in the Gulf.

Enjoy all the Tropical Pandemonium and I'll be back at posting on Saturday night.

Having great food, various delicious dishes and lots of healthy vegetables.

Heart of Palm Salad, Bean Salad, Babaganush (eggplant)and Cole Slaw.. Salad.
Stuffed Peppers, chicken, turkey legs... chicken soup, vegetable dishes...
And... lots of fresh fruit. Mangoes and Strawberries, Blackberries and Pears.
Pick one..choose one... whatever people bring or I find at the store.

Nice holiday... change of the seasons, hurricane, football, fall in Florida and such and such and such... lol, giggling. I don't know why... just in a fairly good mood I suppose.

Everyone stay safe, enjoy life, love and laugh and be happy.

Bobbi

Links 4 FL, KAREN Nears Hurricane strength

Amazing how things can change so fast, they were writing long discussions on why Karen wouldn't intensify fast and then they up her to 70mph. Meanwhile I am going to SWIM if I have to later to Starbucks ...

Good links to look at Fl System:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-ir2.html
http://weather.cod.edu/loops/KeyWest-VIS.loop.html

If you live near this mess.. keep a weather radio handy.

Florida Invest Up

Thank you powers that be! Okay, now I am smiling!

Circulation in the Keys? Pouring and Flooding in Miami

Pouring down here, dark as night. If I didn't know better I would think we were having a solar eclipse that is how dark it is.. and distant thunder. Lightened just enough now to look like its daytime.

Picture is from Miami Beach and driving down Indian Creek around is UP OVER the sea wall, picture doesn't show it but it is. And around 30th street water ponding in little pools at the roots of the mangroves there.. and inching up over the seawall on the houses on the West.. this is bad, really bad..

So... what gives? Radar, any radar shows a circulation spinning on itself down in the Keys training rain up over the same area and satellite imagery makes you go hmmmmn

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=amx&product=NCR&loop=yes

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/OneKM.aspx?location=USFL0244&animate=true



Took this pic above just now while rain slowed and sky lightened.

So...what gives? Would like some answers.. while watching Karen and others spin..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Tropical Update ALA BobbiStorm :)

To start with... the NRL site has the "poorly organized" Puerto Rico system on INVEST again back up with the name 97. Something to think on.. they didn't need to point out it was POORLY organized as much as it was ORGANIZED at all. The area has moved along never looking like much but it has maintained it's individuality despite shear and unfavorable conditions and the models have consistently aimed it at Florida so... it's worth watching. Most likely it will look much more poorly organized after taking a bite out of Puerto Rico and possibly the North coast of Hispaniola but it can't be counted out.. especially with that bizarre Canadian model yesterday with something developing close in along the Florida coast.




Also..............although the building Bermuda Ridge may tell the immediate story with Karen, any system that could manage to pull off development would need to be watched to put any kinks into the steering currents that are far from set in stone.

Speaking of steering currents... a long, Neptunium sort of Tropical Discussion was written earlier on the weak steering currents for TD 13 in the Gulf.

"All model guidance agrees that the cyclone should move little during the next 12-24
hr...with perhaps some small-scale looping of the center. "

There is the system around Florida that is not really officially a system however it sure is raining a lot!

Officially from the TWO (tropical weather outlook) at FIVE... they did call it a system, they didn't not say it was poorly organized however they said it had circulation in the mid or upper levels (an innuendo that it could work it's way d o w n to the surface in a few days) and its going to rain like crazy all during Sukkos. Okay, I added that part but it's a salient point for me as I debate whether I should go buy a cheap spare small table to keep in there vs moving the dining room table in like I normally do. My bigger concern with the Florida Rain that is NOT on Invest is..........IF anything were to develop down around PR or just to the nw of there in the Turks and Caicos it could be drawn towards any low pressure that develops around Florida. A lot of coulds, shoulds and maybes but this is a forecast... not a certainty. When you have a Hurricane Warning or a Tropical Storm Warning.. it means you WILL suffer hurricane force winds within 24 hours.. not kinda, maybe, could happen.

This is simple a forecast of possibilities.

Now... we move on to KAREN which is the real game in town for most of us who are not living on the SW Texas coast.

Karen has moved west more than wnw for a good 24 hours and the NHC has finally gone with West vs WNW in their official forecast. That being said.. it will finally probably pull wnw lol. BUT...........this is a very big BUT here... everyone read carefully. BUT...what this shows us is the models that kept predicting the WNW to NW movement in the shorter term were wrong... when one piece of a mathematical formula is wrong, the whole solution is wrong. You can't have one part wrong and get the rest right.. Something HAS to be adjusted or something that has not been noticed is affecting Karen. Could seriously just be the size of Karen. A storm of this size is less likely to be buffeted around by minor steering currents.

Let me say this about Karen's size.. it makes her move a bit slower and be less prone to jerk about as small storms can. It's also harder for her to be shredded by shear. Look at that north band of Karen.. we have seen this in so many Cape Verde storms. It's as if the NW band sort of runs blocker for the whole system so as shear comes at it.. it keeps sacrificing that area a bit and the lower center lumbers along to the West in a sort of "prevent defense" game (which i hate usually but often wins the game). It keeps gaining short yardage moving a bit lower and more to the left of field than forecast and closer and closer to the End Zone and towards running out the clock. This is basically what Karen is doing and I have seen this over and over in large systems that take a long time to set up and get it's act together before exploding down the line.

For the non-football minded here. Let's say you are baking a cake, a small one. You can't mess up the ingredients. Oops... an extra cup of flour is gonna make that baby hard like a rock. BUT.. if you are making a large pot of soup which is going to simmer on the stove for hours... like a good gumbo, it doesn't really matter if you throw an extra onion or carrot in and a little more dill or a little less thyme isn't going to kill it, you can toss an extra parsnip in or a bigger piece of squash and... it sort of just gets richer, won't throw off the overall taste the way it would if you were trying to make lace cookies which need to be made just so or they don't come out right.

Okay.. I think we have covered Karen from most angles enough for most of you to understand what I mean.

BIG STORMS work differently than small ones. It takes longer for them to really come together... it takes more to rip them apart. IF such a storm were to go Major.. it would carry one of the largest high pressure areas in the Western Hemisphere with it.. a real big IF.

Speaking of high pressure... there was high pressure north of her all day yesterday oriented in such a way that there was no way she could go wnw... yet for some reasons the models didn't pick it up. Go figure. Drove me crazy, could see she was going west.

Lastly...there is a beautiful little low latitude system behind her that keeps on trucking. Can't believe it but it does. IF it develops or just hangs in there the outflow over the top of Karen should keep it low. I don't think they are that close that they can't develop... reminds me of 95 or 96 when we had storms spaced out there like this but it will keep it checked for a while and IF it develops, IF .. a big IF it will stay lower than what is currently being forecast for Karen.

So..........bottom line.

Gulf is a big story because of it's proximity to land and the tendency this year for storms to blow up fast just before landfall.

Florida Rain will make many a commuter and many a tourist crazy the next few days. It also makes for a wet sukkos in my world but that's okay... in Miami you learn to expect that even though it's nicer when the weather cooperates. IF you want nice weather for Sukkos... try LA, Santa Barbara or San Diego... a SURE THING! Well, usually. :) So few sure things in life. That reminds me, I need to email someone a L'shana Tova still. In Miami if we get to keep the Sukkoth and not go into Hurricane Supply mode we are happy if wet.

Puerto Rico... oh it's a definite maybe :) Keep watching, something down there is rooted enough that it doesn't die like Ingrid... so that alone is as compelling as the models directing it this way...

KAREN: Wow, beautiful big storm that struggled yesterday organizing itself and trying to get rid of a pocket of dry air that was entrained in her circulation and she kept moving west. This is one of the situations where IF she had developed better, faster then she might have pulled more to the wnw but since she struggled along yesterday she moved more west. With each gain in yardage west, each first down picked up the cone will be tugged just a drop more and more to the left at 5 and 11. That's the name of the game.. 5, 11, 5, 11... working it's way across the Atlantic westward with blood pressure checked every 6 hours to check the progress of movement and to realign the track in concordance with the actual movement of Karen vs forecasted movement. A beautiful, big... storm that could be more of a player than originally predicted by many who wanted to write off her whole life 10 to 15 days out based on early models. She may go out to sea. She may dance in the Sargasso Sea. She may come to dinner for Simchas Torah... she may take one teasing swing at the Outer Banks before recurving out to sea. Stay tuned because the bottom line is she is still a long, long way from land and in my opinion... Just Bobbi here............steering currents are not real set in stone as witnessed by the Florida Rain milling around the looping TD13 in the Gulf.

So.........watch the fronts progress across America... watch the dips in the Jet Stream, watch the Bermuda High build in and watch the shear out ahead of her. You have a whole lot of watching to do for a whole lot of days with Karen.

Here from wunderground.com is a pic of historical tracks for storms like Karen..
sure a lot of possibilities, we are far from a sure thing on any track.. Karen will have some real tricks up her sleeve if you ask me... and be very entertaining:




As for me... I won't be around much the rest of the week. I'll be here today and this afternoon but I will be away for the Jewish Holiday of Sukkos when I am off school and relaxing, watching clouds build, rain fall and reading through recipes and magazines and maybe a novel or two. I'll be giving thanks for what I have and dreaming on what I would love to see happen in my life and the life of my loved ones. Laughing, "off school" that's funny. I feel more like a college kid now than I ever did years ago. I run on semesters these days, on and off and semester break. I always wondered what it was like to work in an Academic environment, now I know. Figures I would love it as I always loved school.

I was one of those smart, happy, popular girls who smiled too much and even the faculty sent me flowers on Mum day or Rose sales. And, that's good... I loved learning, I loved my friends, I loved causes and clubs and keeping busy and cheering on the football team and watching the guys do band practice. Hate me for being popular or love me for being happy and cute, people are like that sometimes. Why do people hate or make fun of popular people? Poke fun at them or make assumptions? There was this group of girls who were in a club with me and my best friend and they pouted and made snide comments at us like we cared... like they could hurt us by whispering whatever they were whispering and giggling and the only thing I honestly thought was how badly I felt for them that they had to be mean. I mean really...there Linda and I were .. sitting under the palm trees, writing our novels, waiting for the guys to come get us to go off to some place or another, happy in our own world and our being happy upset someone who wasn't happy with their life and that is sad... really sad. When I see someone who is lucky or happy.. successful, I am so happy for them, happy they are blessed and I'll never understand how people are envious of other's happiness or success because I just don't have it in me to be that way. Okay, so I can be like little Mary Sunshine sometimes, rolling my eyes and smiling but I don't see how being envious or jealous of others makes the person jealous any happier or more successful. If you want something in life.............GO AFTER IT, with all your heart.. ALL YOUR HEART and SOUL and enjoy life in the process. Focusing on what you don't have will not get you what you need or want or desire.

I know... a long strange rant but I just realized why yesterday bugged me I guess so I am sitting here wondering on life and people.

Truth is darlings... we all have times in our life when we are up.. times we are down, times we are sitting on top of the world as the Carpenters would sing and times when we are down we are down.. No one is on top of the world all the time, to every person there is a season in the sun and if you are lucky... you have a few seasons in the sun, so enjoy them.

So... after trying to figure out what to post.. gonna post this song because well.. Karen may take a while getting her act together but once she does, once she finds her groove... watch out.. she may be a Star.. she may be the next star on the 2007 Hurricane Season. Let the models talk, let the forecasters forecast, stand back and Let Karen Entertain you and wonder about her little sister or brother out there watching waiting for her or his time in the spotlight.




Besos Bobbi ;) sometimes being a muse is good, and I'm fine Jay lol

Karen... Lonely View, Far Away from Florida Home Brew?

Dissecting the 11AM and wondering if we know for sure where the center of Karen is out there.. far away.... so far out of view.

Wondering if the planes are going to go in and find the exact center or if we have a good handle on it.

Seems more west to me than wnw but well.. hard to say.. really would like some hard good data because it is what the models are driven with.. good gas. Garbage in...garbage out.

In such a fluid situation where the wave to its west is firing up and possible development in a few days around the Florida/Bahama Trough axis... I'm wondering.




Look at that graphic view for you... 4 areas to watch.
With such a fluid situation can anyone say for sure that Karen with swim with the fishes in the Sargasso Sea?

Far from a sure thing... and as always in the tropics everything is fluid and constantly changing.

Enjoy the loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-rb.html

Enjoy the song and keep watching:

Here It Is Come And Get Her.. Karen

So... if you want it.. here it is...come and get it...
but you better hurry because it may not last...

For you Cape Verde Lovers... here it is come and get it..
but you better hurry because it's going fast

Where is it going? That is the 64 gazillion dollar question..
Wouldn't you like to know?

You see I have this cute little Tiki Hut in front of my house for the Jewish Holiday of Sukkos which always coincides with some hurricane to our south threatening..

a similar but different one:




Asking the ever present question? What do I put on the top? Will I have to take it down and put up shutters or do I figure it's made of bamboo and oh hell.. just let it blow away to Timbuktu..

September Rain in Miami.. heavy morning downpours and it's so dark I couldn't even get a normal picture of the skyline. Biscayne Bay is higher than I ever remember it being.. swollen, almost over washing the banks onto the grass on Collins Avenue in areas where there isn't a high bank or dock. Really, really swollen. Have I ever mentioned this before? No.. don't think so. I saw it yesterday, today it's higher..

If we were to get some storm after a week of this: OUCH!

Here's a cute model we call the Canadian which blows up a storm down in the very warm waters of Florida Bay .. I imagine from this system but pressures will have to drop as Jim Williams says on HurricaneCity..and Jim knows.

cute model on speed for real disaster lovers:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007092500&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

As for me.. I'm freezing from getting soaked running into the building and waiting for the Columbian coffee to finish brewing that Carlos put up a while ago and looping loops and for some reason.. I had this overwhelming need to hear this song this morning so... I youtubed it! God I love youtubed. After Google... it's like an Aladdin's Lamp... or crystal ball you can look in and learn or hear almost anything you want.. while looping the water vapor loop, of course..

Enjoy the lyrics and sing along.. while staring at Tropical Storm Karen do her thing, something really special about Karen but.. will it go the way of Ingrid or stick around for the main course?

..................

If you want it here it is, come and get it.
Make your mind up fast.

If you want it anytime I can give it
but you better hurry 'cos it may not last.

Did I hear you say that there must be a catch
will you walk away from a fool and his money

If you want it, here it is, come and get it,
but you better hurry 'cos it's going fast.

If you want it here it is, come and get it,
make your mind up fast.

If you want it anytime I can give it,
but you'd better hurry 'cos it may not last.

[ Lyrics provided by www.mp3lyrics.org ]
Did I hear you say that there must be a catch
will you walk away from a fool and his money

Sonny, if you want it, here it is, come and get it
but you'd better hurry 'cos it's going fast.
You'd better hurry 'cos it's going fast.

Fool and his money.

Sonny, if you want it, here it is, come and get it,
but you'd better hurry 'cos it's going fast,
you'd better hurry 'cos it's going fast,
you'd better hurry 'cos it's going fast.







vs





Well... which ever version you like.. enjoy Karen while you got her because she may not last... or maybe she will. Will she come for Sukkos or swim out to sea??

Miami.. Sukkos.... it was much nicer in California but... it's better than being in New York where you have to worry about keeping the windows tightly shut and the bees out because they can smell the drops of honey on the table from dipping the Challah into the honey... I love Sukkot

http://www.aish.com/holidays/sukkot/
http://www.jewishgator.com/templates/articlecco.htm/AID/115584
http://www.chabad.org/holidays/JewishNewYear/template.htm/aid/4784/jewish/In-a-Nutshell.html

It's a harvest festival.. Jewish style :)
Get With the Program lol.

More on Karen later after some new model's come in.. and more on the rain in Florida... but as always in life a Cape Verde Storm is the biggest priority. Rain is Rain but a Cape Verde that doesn't follow the game plan can be one big... pain in the... Sukkoth!

Tropical Storm Karen

So... as predicted, while we were sleeping the NHC upped the Tropical Depression to a Tropical Storm giving it the beautiful name Karen.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/listImages.pl?m=bnw,se=4,c=IR_108,f=1

Karen is a big, huge storm in the fashion of old classic Cape Verdes. She is not anorexic. Nope. Really not.. and she is getting stronger far out in the Atlantic.

I might say here that Karen is sort of an Indian Summer Cape Verde almost.. only a few days or so past peak of the season storms but most Cape Verde waves have not developed that far out.. it breaks the rule.. and I would ask "why" and what is different about Karen. Is it the conditions, the SAL out there has lessened or it is inherently stronger a system? Hard to say... Size does matter though with storms for many reasons. They take longer to come together and yet they can last longer..then again they can be affected by more things.

Trackers and forecasters though are loving it... for now anyway.

A difficult forecast in the immediate as how many degrees west or how low Karen stays makes all the difference down the line when she is pulled more to the NW and how much to the NW is the question. How much and when?

According to the NHC.. official source or talking horse here they say there is trough that will pull on the storm.. it can either lift the storm faster or it can lift it slower, it can enhance the convection (that hints of possibly explosive growth) or it can shear it more and inhibit it from developing as strong as some of their models indicate and we are talking short term development here.

It's all a matter of degrees. And, without the Gulfstream Jet in there to read the environment the NHC is doing a great job of reading tea leaves and satellite images to get a good idea what this storm will do vs.. climo which would keep it more to the west or at a lower latitude.

Remember ONE thing.. the cone you see is a FIVE DAY cone and not more.. so don't extrapolate where you think it will go.. we will know soon enough down the line.

So..again that old saying which is annoying as hell.. "what does not kill us only makes us stronger" comes into play. Explosive development or... whoosh, whoosh we are gonna blow your storm away.

Watch.. while watching, enjoy the classic song... one of the ones I can listen to and not dwell on other matters. Seeing as I know some of you are real Karen fans..
Enjoy... the comment on yesterday except for the fact.. it is still raining in Miami.

Will update later... a lot of other things to talk on.. a wave closer in and moisture in the Gulf might be doing something but for now... unless something does develop.. Karen is the name of the game... let the games begin ;)



(yeah.. i know... but I've gotten over it.. a long time ago...I can smile just like you..)
Bobbi

TD12 Forms in Far Atlantic

Does it swim like a fish or stall out and bend back under the high?

NHC says swim like a fish...

Bobbi says... too early to be sure.

Why? Speed of system.
IF the models are right TD12 it is a slow mover... that keeps it in the Atlantic long enough for things to change dramatically... Storms that move fast go out to sea faster. So... watch, wait and admire the beauty of a developing storm.

Note question in the discussion tonight:

A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IN 4 OR 5 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NORTHWESTWARD
TURN LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
GENERALLY AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN HOW FAR WEST THE CYCLONE WILL BE WHEN THE TURN MATERIALIZES. THE
GFS...AND GFDL ARE FARTHER WEST...WHILE THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF ARE
ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND LEANS CLOSER
TO THE GFS/GFDL SOLUTIONS.

note: they always go with the gfdl solution...

So... yes shear may develop and try to do to it what it did to Ingrid.. but as always time will tell ...

Watch and wait a few days to see what it really does and for models based on dropsondes from passing hurricane hunters..which is always more accurate than guesstimates.

Note: discussion mentioned quikscat twice.. notice how often it is now mentioned in discussion as making the call.

So... watch... gulf is not a sure thing, neither is the area closer to the islands but TD12 is a SURE THING, definitely a Tropical Depression and possibly borderline Tropical Storm but the NHC will be conservative this far out with the shear that killed Ingrid still lingering in the Atlantic.

nite all...still raining off and on in Miami...
wet and wild
Bobbi

Waiting on the Waves, Just Singing In the Rain

Raining in Miami... and I'm watching the waves. Word is that at least one will be upgraded in some fashion by 11... so we are waiting.

Waiting, and singing in the rain...

Beautiful "wave" TD..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-rb.html
has dvorak and color, center exploding, beautiful..

But...then again if I lived in the Western Gulf I'd worry there..

So again we have a race to see which system gets which number and which name...

Sing..or throw darts on your hurricane map... whatever works..
It's NHC's call... come on with the rain.. I've a smile on my face



( :) okay Dave that was for U... lol)

Cape Verde Wave ... next REAL storm??

There is a beautiful Cape Verde Wave forming far out in the Tropical Atlantic off the Cape Verde Islands and moving west north west across the Atlantic.

Beautiful. Really.

Watch it spin and spin and spin:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-rgb.html

So I've been a bit of a brat and not posted for 2 days. Decided to hold my temper the last few days so that I don't go on a long, boring (but appropriate) rant about Humberto and Jerry......and not wanting to discuss the Fins game for which there are no words that could be used to describe the need for mediocre and how inured we have become here in Miami... I decided to just not post yesterday and wait for something worthy of speaking about.

After a really wonderful, beautiful, sweet inspirational email worthy of much smiling for the rest of my day... I received a Heads Up from the highest hurricane expert I know lol :) to take a look at the Cape Verde Wave I've been hoping would develop.

I looked. Smiling, I'm still smiling.

Amazing.

Know most Cape Verdes go quietly out to sea after dancing their way across the Atlantic but they are the most beautiful storms out there... lots of running room, room to breathe, to kick up their heels and spin... and spin and spin...

The REAL Thang!

So.. heads up to all of you and you and you that somewhere out in the far off Atlantic a Cape Verde Storm is forming!!

A REAL Storm.

Besos Bobbi
(was told once if I don't have anything good to say.. don't say anything at all.. so only my brother Jay knows how I really feel about other stuff lol) Inure, look it up..

Quick Bites.. Tropical and Topical and Blessings

Okay let's try this again.....typed it once, I can type it again!

Subtropical Ten is forming in the Gulf... but first I want to say something here...

First off I want to thank all my friends for their help in my life..and I want to ask forgiveness if well.. I have pissed off anyone in the past year knowingly or unknowingly. That is what we do before Yom Kippur...

We ask for forgiveness for God and from our friends. So...forgive me, as I forgive you.. please.

As for the Tropics... the system in the gulf is going to cause MISERY for many residents along the Florida Panhandle and Gulf Coast in the area where it is moving towards the shore. And, yes I wrote it like that on purpose because in systems like this that are not small hurricanes you can sometimes have MORE MISERY because damage is felt along a wider area. A few years ago for instance, and forgive me for not remembering the name of it.. too much to do to google.. a storm came ashore in one town and miles to the east somewhere south of Tallahassee some small town got flooded badly. The water wells up as it moves slowly towards the shore in that part of the Gulf and it has to go somewhere... usually flooding the area with a sort of storm surge even if the storm is not a hurricane. Next... Twisters are a big threat ANYWHERE weather happens or pops up from this system so please, please KEEP YOUR WEATHER RADIOS ON and set for alarm in case the worst does happen.

With a name, without a name or be it Tropical or Subtropical... the damage is the same. What difference does 5mph sustained winds make? What is really in a name. There is weather out there, warnings probably will go up and damage will be felt.

In the Atlantic.. Ingrid is finally dead it seems and we in the Southeast Coast owe a BIG debt of gratitude to the combined effects of Upper Level Lows and Shear that has batted away any chance of a land falling system from the ESE... SO FAR... keep watching.

In the Caribbean there is a cluster of convection and anywhere a cluster persists... watch it.


On a personal level... to two strange men and their very strange friend.. may you all have a year of blessings, kindness, joy, money, HEALTH, happiness and positivity. May you always use your profits from your productivity for goodness and to make the world a better place for you, your family, your friends and the world around you! To... others who know who they are whether they are in Oklahoma, Canada, Smallville or Virginia... may you find love and peace in your lives.

It is true... daughters do resemble their mothers in ways and as they grow older, wiser, up... out... in all ways they look like their mothers. You don't see it at 14 when you look at that lady who is 44 that she really birthed this little baby but she did and ... hopefully at 44 the dear cute adorable hot sexy baby will also look like a mature, beautiful, charming, Sexy Hot Mama! It's amusing when people say to me "Dina looks so much like you" and that's nice.. that's good, Dina is beautiful but I hope and pray when she is my age she will look good, she will take care of herself and feel as young then as she does now. I try, we all try.. we have to be role models to our children and their friends. If I can look and feel young, fit into my daughter's clothing still and worry that they stole my favorite skirt (borrowed) then good.. maybe they will take care of themselves over time, learn more about good health, positivity and smiling... the wonderful skill of smiling and enjoying the sunrise, the sunset and the flowers along the way. It is so easy as time goes by, we have children, we have stress, we have problems to not take care of ourselves and often a woman at 40 or 50 looks in the mirror and can't figure out what happened to that young, beautiful, girl of 18 and frankly it's depressing, distressing and self-esteem goes down and down... and down.

One of the best books I ever read was a long time ago by Elizabeth Taylor on weight loss and she showed pictures of how as we gain weight we slowly stop taking care of ourselves. we put on baggy clothes, big hats, big purses til we hide behind things and if you compare the pictures of before and after you will see what I mean. And... it's true...

Maybe my generation tries harder.. be it Oprah always trying to stay svelte or Sally Field looking absolutely fantastic at any age.

So...let's go back to Sally. Yes, she talks a lot. So do I... BUT.........she looks incredible and I am sure if you look close with no make up she doesn't look 35 but with make up, a smile... spirit she still does even though she is 60ish? Amazing. And, what she was trying to say was HOW IMPORTANT MOTHERS are..and how hard they work and well... part of what we have to do the most is be a role model for our daughters (and sons) and.........so................... if I want my daughters to grow up, be confident, be cheerful, be beautiful and take care of themselves into their 40s, 50s and beyond.. I have to too!

Maybe Smiling comes naturally to me.. I don't know, but if I can give a smile ..which costs me nothing, I can see a smile in return. And, if Carlos lol or one of the guys at works teases me how good I look in the morning... it makes me smile, it makes me giggle and makes me feel alive.

We all need to feel alive.. we all need the Gift of Life this Yom Kippur but what we need MOST after we get it is.................to ENJOY IT!

I read in a prayer book on Rosh Hashanah in Key West that it is sort of a sin to not enjoy the beauty around you... beautiful smiles, beautiful people, beautiful picket fences with little purple flowers poking through and the sunrise in the morning and the sunset at night and the feel of rain on your face.

So... to all my friends in Cyber Land... take care of yourselves.. physically and spiritually, intellectually and emotionally and do unto others as you would want them to do unto you.

Give a Smile!

Love and Blessings..
Bobbi

Ingrid Still Breathing, As We Watch Florida

While most weather people are watching and talking about the the system that is hugging and embracing both the East and West Coast of Florida, both upper and lower lows...

Many of us are still watching Ingrid.. who has a weak pulse and is being followed both on the NRL site as an invest and on floater imagery and by Dvorak.

Keep watching her. She is stubborn.

As for the Florida mess... I would go more with something on the Gulfside vs the East but hard to say.. both sides spin, like an old song ;)

Besos Bobbi

Just Rain or Just Jerry?

Big debate going on in weather circles today as to whether a tropical system is developing off the Florida Coast or.. if it's just rain caught up in an Upper Level Low.

Good question.

I have been given Neil Frank's view that Texas should keep watching it for possible development down the road. Joe Bastardi did a whole discussion on it and his totals for the year this year. He think it's worth watching as this year seems to have a lot of "close in" development. NHC is watching but cautiously so. Jim Williams gave his webcast today. Seems we are all cautiously watching.

It's been a very busy day for me. A lot going on at work and taking care of various things that need to be taken care of.. such as over analyzing the Dolphins disgusting loss last weekend with my brother and other friends. No... seriously, I was so busy today I could barely loop a loop.

I love going to Key West. Love it, love it, love it. However when I do go away like that I lose all my time to do those annoying bizzy work, tasks you need to do and you get thrown behind. But, still.. it's worth it. That place is indeed the fountain of youth and without traffic, noise nor congestion you can enjoy the simple life :)

I don't know. I sort of waited til the house got quiet and all the models came in, loops looped and I could really study it before giving my thoughts.

Will it develop into Jerry? Possibly, probably but as what and will it really need a name? Will this be a tropical system or another hybrid stretching numbers?

Time as always will tell.

There is another system out in the Atlantic that looks good but... I see it being hit by the same shear zone as Ingrid. In the Pacific off the coast of Mexico a storm is forming and that usually puts the kaboosh? (is that how you spell it) on anything in the Gulf or Carib. IF...........and big IF.. it manages to stay off shore a bit longer and the wave develops over the warm gulf stream and becomes a real .. wait let me say this again.. A REAL TROPICAL SYSTEM.. then THAT would be interesting

Either way.. rain in the right season is a blessing and we can use all the rain we can get in many places. Then again... after La Nina is gone... we may long for sunny days.

So..that's my thought today. Too tired to google a song or picture tonight so you'll have to forgive me. Only song that came to mind suddenly was "Sing, sing a song" but I really am not in the mood to think on Carpenters. What I do need is to hear the song, "I love the now" from Jimmy Buffett.. bought a small note pad with that saying on it Key West while trying to catch a cab to get out of the rain by Margarittaville on the way home from Faustos. Go figure I don't have it? I must have it. So many CDs ... somewhere over the rainbow is tomorrow but for now, today...important to love the Now.

Check back tomorrow to see if ole Jerry will once again be an annoying storm and not some famous classic Cape Verde. Why do the Jerry storms always have to be wierd close in Florida storms?

Nite... may all of your tomorrows be better than your yesterdays,

Bobbi

Peek A Boo From Paradise

Hey there.. quick hello from Key West before the sunrises and while the stars are still plentiful in the heavens.

Looking around the boards for the first time in a few days I see Ingrid may make it or may not. May die a excruciatingly slow death in the Atlantic. She may come back to life ala Nogaps and be yet a force to reckon with.. especially if you are a ship. Ships model by the way had a lot to say.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.cgi?time=2007091600&field=
Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

I found out that Florida beat Tennessee yet not the score of the UM game. Guess that says a lot about Hurricane City message board.... I can always try ESPN..

Nogaps also develops a storm down in the Caribbean that rides up into South Florida through the Keys and keeps on trucking. Maybe that's Jim's Key Largo hit lol.

And, I wonder if the shear is going to remain a bit of a player and the westerlies well.. is the Cape Verde Season over at the height of what is supposed to be the Cape Verde Season and we segue into Caribbean October like scenario already? Curious though wouldn't mention it too much on the board.. trackers like Cape Verde storms though Ingrid might cure them of that. Boy, is she a cold fish or what? Just hangs there, swimming around slowly. Models called that one. I mean really called that one. I couldn't see how anything could move that slow but they were right.. in fact I think she's moved slower than the models. And... yet.. she is still there, flaring up nicely on enhanced IR.. very recognizable from outer space. My rule of thumb with a system like that is.........never turn your back on it or forget about it.

So... going to loop some loops, go to ESPN and see if UM beat FIU and if anyone was arrested. My son and his friends were going.. they expected it to be a heated game, word was police were brought in for crowd control. Must not have been so big as to have been covered so well on the weather message boards lol. Smiling. Shaking my head, very funny.

I'll be back later today, back to whatever is normal on the mainland Monday and watching the tropics as always.

I had a beautiful week down here for the High Holy Days as they are called.

B'nai Zion is truly one of the most wonderful congregations in the world. A room full of people who feel as family and join together in prayer. The Rabbi is really wonderful as are the people. Left me with much to think on, ponder, wonder and... well, able to think a bit clearer on life. Inspiring and fun. Great kiddush put out for lunch and time to talk with friends. Incredible story of the Rebbetzen and her early life in Europe.. blows you away how strong and smart some people are.. besides all her grace was a window into a different time told so dramatically around the lunch table. Yes, all in all... amazingly, beautiful, inspirational time.

And... Rosh Hashonnah being the birthday of the world... I sat on the dock at the end of Duval Street watching the sun come up on yet another day, in another year and could start it off down here. Perfect! I'm lucky to have such wonderful, good friends and I do give thanks every day!

Wandered around old time, walked around, stared at the flowers, the trees, the beauty of it all.. gave thanks for such a beautiful world. Walked over to Voltaire's the new book store down here.. great place, might write more on that later. Spent a good part of the afternoon Friday at the library talking history with Tom Hambright and friends. Got back in time to do Tashlich at Casa Marina with the Temple.

It's Biker Weekend down here, thousands and thousands of Bikers on a Charity run. Zoom, Zoom ..vroom, vroom... up and down Truman and Duval.. Wow, sounded like rolling thunder, really did.. but am quietly tucked away here from the noise at the house I am staying at. Just me and my friend's cats, the stars hanging over the pool and a million thoughts floating around in my mind while I float in the pool.

You hear all sorts of things at Shul, friends gave me updates on models for Ingrid, news of the Mayor election and best of all I heard that the Waterfront Market may stay after all under new ownership. :)

That's it. Going to take a quick swim before the sun comes up, finish my coffee and pack up.

I hope all of you had a beautiful weekend, hope your teams won, your homes are safe from windstorms or firestorms and may all your dreams come true ... indeed.

Bobbi Boo

Tropical Storm Humberto forms From TD 9

9 is H, 8 will be I. No..this is not numerology but meteorology on a strange day in the Tropics.

Like when watching the Miss Universe Contest... they say "and the first runner up is" and the other girl FREAKS and SCREAMS because it's apparent SHE WON Miss Universe..

Everyone automatically went...............so 8 will be Ingrid.. lol wow.

Freaky Friday I guess.

Humberto will provide much rain for the middle parts of the country and hopefully not too much flooding. A good example of how rain from tropical cyclones provide much needed rain for the plains and deep south.

As for Tropical Depression 8.. still waiting for a name with any letter...

Hoping that one doesn't provide too much weather here in our part of the world.

Going off for the High Holy Days..will be watching from Key West where I arrived, safe and semi sound and very tired from the trip but very happy to usher in the New Year in Key West.

Good Yom Tov. Good Shabbos down the road.

Stay safe... Blessings, Bobbi

TD 8 is Forming in the Atlantic? TD 9 is Forming in the Gulf..

Short post here but just saying that TD 9 is forming and will be traveling westish.. for a few days far out in the Atlantic. Watch the ridge to it's north to see what happens, watch the fronts coming down.. just watch and wait and enjoy. This is the easy part while it's far away from anyone's home town.

TD 8 formed today in the Atlantic.. minutes almost before TD 9 formed.
Then.. they made Humberto Why the NHC did it that way I don't know but maybe it's topsy turvey Friday? Warnings are up for the Gulf coast and Texas gets a tropical storm. Rain will move up into the country.

As for me.. I am short on time. On may way down to Key West for the Jewish High Holidays where I will be attending services at a synagogue that my great, great grandparents helped start 120 years ago. Is that amazing or what? Really... blows me away when I think on it. What stories they must have had to tell.

I'll be back on Sunday ready to track, talk and muse away about what will most likely be Humberto.. unless Humberto forms somewhere else if TD 9 takes it's time.

My best blessings for everyone's happiness, prosperity and good health. May you all have the time to enjoy those you love and may you be surrounded by love... and the weather you love the most.

L'Shana Tovah
Bobbi

Waiting for a Wave To Come Together

Watching and waiting for a wave to gel or as I like to think in my worst dreams, jellin.. haha. Inside joke, sorry.

Okay... where are we? Tropically speaking..

Watching waves.. and watching models...like this one below



A system in the Gulf might form and there is a wave in the Atlantic that has multiple vortices's that might decide to spin into something BIG and might come to a theater near you soon if you live along the coast.. yeah, I know we've been watching that wave forever.

I'll give you my take on this and that is most of what I will say today as I have waited a good part of the day to try and figure out what to say of any substance other than Trouble in some River City real soon.. if it does develop.

All the models suggest a high is going to dig in later in the forecast period. That is something weather people on air say, what it means simply is: By the time that wave becomes a big bad hurricane a high is going to force it due WEST or wsw directly at your beachfront town...

But..two problems regarding 91 and the Trouble the Models imply...

1... The models can't agree where to start their track, they differ where the beef is so to speak. Center of a circulation..
IF you can't get the beginning right then you can't get the end point right. Garbage IN, Garbage OUT.

2... They show this wave moving very slowly. It could get to the landfall faster by hopping a ride on a tired snail than what would normally happen in the tropics. IF the timing is off.. the track is off. Garbage IN, Garbage OUT.

So... I see the track.. hard not to see the track but without seeing a real spinning center or good data from QuikScat or... Recon going in with their very exciting fun to hold dropsondes.. we are just guessing, which rhymes with gellin, which this large wave has yet to do..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

So.. until it comes together.. we are just "wishcasting"
something weather people do in the shower........
:)



In the life of Bobbi otherwise... pray for good weather this week as I will be praying for a good year for me, my family, all my friends and all of you out there in cyberland. The Jewish High Holidays are Thursday and Friday and then we go straight into overtime on Shabbos. I won't be around and will be away.. watching from a distance, one eye on the tropics and one eye on the palm tree playing peek a boo with the sun and the moon depending on what time of day it is. But, more on that later.

An interesting side note here is an email I received from a Synagogue in Louisiana that is still putting itself back together after being hit by hurricanes a few years back. Just to show you how long it takes to rebuild after a hurricane. They are a Reform Congregation going through a rebuilding and I had been tracking their progress a while back..so reminding you that just because we forget about people does not mean their life stopped but life goes on, as does time.

This year as the Jewish Holidays near I wish all of you happiness, wealth, good health, joy and the gift of time to enjoy with your loved ones.

We are one global family, all races, one world.. so enjoy this link as well:
http://www.earthdance.org/

Love has the power to transform our world.. beautiful message!

Link to Temple that is still trying to put itself back together with the help from the local community:

http://bethshalomsynagogue.org/
- High Holy Days services will be at Jefferson Baptist Church, just
next door. This is due to the reconstruction of our Sanctuary.

- Please park and enter in the rear of building.

- Baby sitting is provided at Jefferson Baptist Church for all
worship times.

EREV ROSH HASHANAH

Wednesday, Sept. 12, - 8:00 pm

ROSH HASHANAH - FIRST DAY

Thursday, Sept. 13,

Childrens service - 9:00 am

Services - 10:00 am

Tashlich - 2:30 pm

Evening Services - 8:00 pm

ROSH HASHANAH - 2nd DAY

Friday Sept. 14,

Services - 10:00 am

Services - 12:30 pm

Proenza Gets His Job Back @ NWS and...

And..........Quikscat is scheduled to be replaced if they keep their word.

Seems that the man who wasn't a people person enough for the NHC was people person enough for the gang at the NWS where he will return to his job where he is in charge of many more employees than he had at the NHC. Hmmmm. "He once again will manage nearly 1,000 forecasters and other employees in 47 offices in Florida, nine other states" not to mention Puerto Rico..

Article goes on to state that: "In a related development, the agency said it was addressing a variety of other operational issues identified by a special assessment team that looked into Proenza's management of the center.

It said a consultant would look into a organizational issues and morale problems at the center, a team of experts would work toward accelerating improvements in forecasting and the agency soon would develop a recommended replacement for the QuikScat satellite."

So.. he may have won the battle and the war as I am sure his talents and skills as a people person will be better utilized at the NWS where he will be working round the clock, 24/7, 365 days a year tracking stormy weather of all kind vs just duties at the NHC which is mostly busy during the hurricane season only part of the year.

And.. he got a vote in the battle for Quikscat which was used all season to help keep track of Dean and Felix. Many of the forecasts at the NHC were made using the very important sat.

Well... anyways..in the tropics we are still waiting for one of the tropical waves to pop.

Glad he got his job back... shame they couldn't just hire a mediator like most agencies and work out the employer/employee relations at the NHC but well.. maybe he will be happy to see his old job after his stormy season at the NHC.

Maybe...he should have had Lautenbacher's job instead of the government giving some person from the outside who was working in private industry after his retirement from the Armed Services the job...

just a thought...

Anyways... how bout those waves ;)


link to excellent article:

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/breaking_dade/story/232422.html#recent_comm

Tidbits on the Tropics

Not really a lot to write about right now.

Gabrielle is doing the out to sea thing after kicking up the surf and not giving enough rain to North Carolina. Note to anyone reading this who might want to know.. I would love to see the outer banks one day, or a long weekend, maybe perhaps a good week to unwind. Simply beautiful images this weekend of wind whipped beaches and waves all foamy on sandy beaches.

Okay, back to earth Bobbi

So.. the NRL dropped a few of the invests and is up with only the one that was furthest out near Africa but is now around mid-Atlantic slowly pulling itself together.

So.. the invest in the gulf is gone... even though there is still some convection there and the one following the still apparent wave through the islands is gone..

Another one's gone and another one's gone and another one bites the dust...




Sort of like a game of musical chairs and they keep taking them away til one stands alone.. with a name and a destiny.

Watch the wave out over the Atlantic. The models develop it although the GFDL keeps it west bound towards the US coast while a high builds in so strong it even bends SW over the SW gulf keeping the yet unnamed storm on some date with destiny. The HMRF takes it up into the Atlantic and seems to find a path out of landfall and swims its way into the open waters. The GFDL is very slow and the timing is suspect. The Canadian barely blows it a kiss which is hard to believe.

While it is "slow" I am working on an article to be published in the near future on old Miami in the 1950s. Doing research, found some good stuff and am a happy camper this afternoon. Always feel good when you find that one piece of elusive information that your editor wants but it even eludes him (and he's the best) and suddenly, on a whim, on a serendipitous, silly gamble there it was staring me in my eyes with more info than I could have hoped for :) Smiling .. I'm better than Lois Lane! I'm Bobbi Storm! lol.

Asked Sam over at the Main Library if he heard of any historical programs in honor of the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane and he gave his goofy grin and said no... I added, other than any Mother Nature might put on lol. He laughed. Then..some totally strange, random guy walked by and said, "Hi Bobbi" and disappeared into the stacks................... okay...

Great show at the South Florida Historical Museum about water but the better part was the display on Hurricane Andrew. Features footage that is show very cool... on this big screen behind a window that is decorated like a window so that you feel like you are in your own house staring out at Hurricane Andrew ripping apart Homestead. The video is from Jim Edds and anyone interested in really knowing what it is to be in a Major Hurricane should buy the video... put it on your biggest screen, turn the lights out and turn the volume up real high and sit mesmerized by the shrill of the wind and the way that the bric brack of debris increases flying by in the wind until each piece breaks off another piece from some display or building and adds to the drama and signs fall down, poles fall down and palm trees break off and take flight. Amazing awesome video. Buy it, study it and know what a real Category five is really like without having to get up close and personal.

Okay.. the video was from Charley not Andrew but it's awesome.

Go to this page:
http://www.extremestorms.com/hurricanes.htm

Click on Charley.. wow.

So you really want a hurricane?

Be careful what you wish for.. but whatever flies your way, enjoy it and hold on tight until tomorrow..

Over and out, Bobbi

2nd Half of the Hurricane Season 2007 Begins Today

Something about September....

The start of the football season and schools starting that leads us into the 2nd half of the Hurricane Season.

The real season. Prime Time Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Summer is fun time, all the kids are playing online, waves look great and fizzle suddenly and everyone hypes up and wishcasts every wave into existence.

Come September...like the old movie.. things change, and we are prime time on all fronts.

There are 4 invests tonight on the Navy site.. four!
I'm afraid to check..there might be a fifth one as I type this..

So... get out your score cards and root for your favorite wave, your favorite forecaster and buy water and batteries because now we head into the Peak Week...

September Remember part of the nursery rhyme.

Look at this site:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.htm

Look on the top left where the Atlantic Basin is lit up the 4th night of Chanukah!

Look at wunderground: 4.. count em FOUR
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/


As for me... I'm in football heaven here. Got the Giants game on in the background, watched the Dolphins play better than they have for a while.. but still lose, watched updates and parts of the Chicago/San Diego game... and.... listened to Fins Football on the radio. Sigh..............

The fins should not have thrown that last pass and gone long. They had been having problems all day throwing long, dropped passes and near interceptions. They were doing good up the middle for throws of 10 and 15 yards and should have thrown one up the middle or tried running the ball...which granted they did badly all night but it would have worn time off the clock and been safer. After that near interception and that last series the Redskins got momentum going into overtime and found their groove. Not good. And, not going to join the little feel good fest I heard on the radio. The purpose of football is to win the game.. not work on building a team over 3 or 4 years. Not worry on integrity of players and having real, upright football players but put the ball between and under the uprights. The kicker did his job, the Fins offense did not and the Defense didn't show up but ran out of steam late in the game. The Redskins did not play great, but they played better and on their home field. A lot to be happy about but I am still not happy we got Ginn instead of Quinn. Trent is nice but he's not a franchise quarterback, he would have made an incredible back up to Brady or a quarterback to teach him the game. Yes... stars have often come out of the 9th and 10th round of drafts but when you see a player of worth.. with potential you don't pass him over because quite frankly in life.. you sometimes don't get second chances.

Time will tell on the 2007 and Dolphin season but we lost today and even with losing it was great to see them out on the field. Next week.. we better win or you will start hearing the same old complaint that is always made.. where is the Dolphins Running Game?

So.... going to go watch the game and TWC and make some lists for things to do tomorrow.

Pick an invest... any invest but hope that whatever is out there stays away from Miami this coming weekend... got other plans and hate to see them get blown away by Humberto or some tropical depression.

Love and Kisses to all my friends.
Good wishes for a safe, happy, good, prosperous new year and as I have been want to say in the past... May All Your Wishes Come True..

Be well.. be good, be happy.. Bobbi
Ps.. is that not the most beautiful picture up there on top.. looks like a diamond or a sapphire falling off of a beautiful necklace draped across the Altantic Ocean. Art from God! :)

Sunday Morning - Gabrielle Makes Landfall... and Misc musings

Okay, so I just got back from breakfast with some friends and family. Coffee good but not good enough to wake me up. I need Starbucks or Cuban Coffee to really wake me properly. A good cafecito right now would do wonders. Maybe some Verona if Starbucks had though they are usually hawking some new flavor of the day from the tropics.

Read an article in the Sun-Sentinel about the areas ravaged by Felix and the amazing stories of survival.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/nationworld/sfl-flasurvival0909nbsep09,0,2640204.story

Incredible story, sad, heavy, makes you wonder on how some people around the world live. On good days ... it's as good as it gets living in a thatched hut over the water in the tropics.. catching the tropical breeze. On bad days... a race to find shelter in a storm and yet.. most living on the Miskito coast lived, again reminding me how amazing it is that so many survive such hurricanes. Those out at sea were not so lucky.

As for me in Miami... going to kick back, relax, watch the Fins on TV, watch Gabrielle on TWC during commercials and maybe make a trip over to Walgreens or Walmart or Walsomething or other. Finish my leftovers from breakfast with some brown rice and sip herbal tea. Cafecito in the morning, Chamomile in the evenings.

The High Holy Days are coming later in the week. I am sure I have much to think on but in typical Scarlett fashion I'll think on it tomorrow. Today is Sunday, first Sunday of the Football Season. If I can't clean the house and zone out now.. I never will.

Gabrielle.... her small center is headed nnw even if the majority of her moisture keeps flowing more west and more south. Seems she is developing convective banding and may get upped a little bit at 11. Finally respectable.

In the far distant north Atlantic is a system that catches the eye and hypnotizes which according to a friend might become extra tropical as it approaches the Azores, maybe.

In the area down around Florida, Cuba and the Florida Straits something is going on but what I am not sure. The air feels different here today. Should rain on my old grown son who is helping an old boyfriend of mine move today. Rain is supposed to be a brocho.. a blessing. Then again as a good friend of mine said in email... rain in the right season or something like that. Good quote, good thought. We should all be blessed with the right thing at the right time this coming year.

Over by Africa the waves are rolling westbound towards our part of the world. The Navy site just posted a link to another wave.

Yet, as for me.. I'm still wondering on that small, round, stubborn area of showers headed west towards the islands at a higher than normal latitude. I'm thinking anything that is that stubborn and persists so long deserves more attention that it is getting.

I'll be back later with some thoughts as they and the tropics develop.

Go Fins!
Bobbi

Ps.. might work on my novel a little :)

Gabrielle Not Playing By Rules.. Going more West

Okay, early morning, late night update here while i sit with my friends watching the plane get closer and closer to finding out and figuring out what Gabrielle is doing because she is way off track. She is so off track tonight it's like watching an old episode of Gilligan's Island where Ginger hits her head and has a concussion, wakes up and thinks she is Gilligan.. if you get the picture here...

So... if you hit the forecasted points option on the loops where it is available you will see Gabrielle has wandered west.. some even say south but hey we aren't sure which center this is.. lower, mid-level... ???

Just making the point here that they may have to change the track fast or at least by 5am they should have some idea for sure what is going on with Gabrielle.

Here are some loops.. going to bed soon, fascinating story evolving here and remember she is out over warm water with low shear. Could it be she hit the wall of high pressure and doesn't know what to do while waiting for her trough ride to Greenland or England? Only time will tell :) (you knew I'd say that)

Nite everyone, happy tracking...

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/archive/2007/Gabrielle/HDOB/AF/04/map.shtml
I would go to sleep, I should go to sleep but really nothing like sitting up with friends watching the plane circle around on google lol looking for the center of Gabrielle..

loops to watch
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=MHX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticSatellite.aspx?enlarge=true&animate=true

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

Tropical Storm Gabrielle and an Area of Interest Closer to Home

So, as Tropical Storm Gabrielle heads towards a brush with the beautiful North Carolina coastline... an invest has been started on the area "around South Florida" for lack of a better description. I would say SW Gulf but.. considering it's storming in Miami tonight and I don't mean the UM Hurricanes.. I mean real rain, tropical rain and a wonderful light show put on by God himself... or Mother Nature if you feel better thinking she's throwing the lightning bolts.

As Gabrielle sits out there slowly moving towards land OVER THE GULFSTREAM, shear has taken a funny moment to leave the room. Definitely looking better and fun to watch as she makes her way onto the radar screens.

Beautiful view of the radar posted by Chris over at HURRCITY:
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=zoom&num=6&delay=50&rbscale=0.3978260869565217&scale=
1.000&noclutter=0&ID=LTX&type=N0Z&lat=34.24169922&lon=-77.94360352&label=
Wilmington,20NC&showstorms=31&map.x=466.5&map.y=261¢erx=400¢ery=
240&lightning=1&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0

There are waves off Africa although I like the next wave better than this one. And, possibly the one after that.



And.. over South Florida where we are currently rocking and rolling with a great light show.. we have an invest. And, it occurs to me... could this mess up my plans for Rosh Hashonnah.. oh gosh I hope not. But, where is the center in the mass that I thought was just the dirty side of an Upper Level Low? Good question but I'll tell you one thing. When a real weather person senses something you have to listen and believe in their gut. Standing outside tonight on the front porch, watching the rain come down suddenly, in massive amounts of water there was this smell in the air that wasn't just rain... a whisper in the wind that was blowing quite steady and strong, as I gazed up at the rain pouring down at an angle, illuminated by the streetlight I thought to myself "this is very tropical rain" and then I tried to convince myself it was a passing shower flying in fast from the Gulfstream. But, the thought lingered as did the rain and I opened the windows in my bedroom, turned off the AC and lay there listening to the rain, to the sound of life outside the house and wondered why the rain didn't stop like it usually does this time of year.

A few hours later, some time after my son and daughter-in-law drove up and changed their plans for the FIU game to saying hi and going out to a movie. I received an email with the new advisory on Gabrielle, the excellent discussion from the always talented Beven and a TWO... and low and behold... we were mentioned in the TWO. Something about showers and an old frontal boundary. But, still... random rain does not get a mention in the TWO. Nope.

Shortly after that... an invest on South Florida POPS up on the Navy site (NRL) and voila... we are suddenly in it. Suddenly, there is something to think on... afterall.

The point is..when I first saw the rain tonight I knew something was going on yet the brain tells the heart and soul what to think way too often. There is no substitute for going with Gut Instinct often. Options are good. Analysis is excellent. Scientific methodology is the best way to come to any good conclusion but time and again I am reminded of the value of going with your gut instinct and listening to your heart.

Friday afternoon before Andrew made his turn he was headed off towards the trough. I didn't leave TWC on mute in those days on Shabbos and I didn't leave a weather radio on quietly in a drawer somewhere like I usually did that shabbos. It was a busy weekend, the NHC was SURE Andrew was catching the trough and I probably didn't have any good 9 volt batteries to put in the weather radio and leave it on like I usually did so often when a hurricane was nearby threatening. But, when I went out for a walk on Saturday afternoon, late in the day to visit a friend and walked back and felt the breeze, the strong, steady, nonstop constant breeze blowing in from the NorthEAST from the Ocean a few blocks away across Pine Tree Drive I KNEW... my gut knew that Andrew was out there and hadn't caught the trough. I walked faster, almost ran the last block home in the darkness as the stars had come out and Shabbos was over and I ran in the house and screamed lol "turn on TWC" lol... I knew.

So... musing here a bit late at night but showing you how sometimes you know.. even without proof, without data which will be supplied later that something is going on and which way the wind might be blowing tomorrow even without the use of the water vapor from Unisys.

Sometimes... you are walking down a street and you know someone is watching and you don't need that famous song "somebody's watching you" ... you know.

It's late. I'm going to bed I think.

Going to check back with HurrCity one more time and look around the web, if I can keep my eyes open I'll go over to Selichos or read it here or just sit down in my room, with the windows open and the rain falling outside and talk to God a little bit the old fashioned way.

Gabrielle might just make landfall the way things are going tonight.
A wave off of Africa might just develop sometime in the next week or so.
Maybe, just maybe something will develop around Florida.. the Gulf, the Straits, somewhere north of Cuba and West of the Bahamas somewhere.

Maybe this time in life I will learn to listen to my gut, that still small voice deep inside you that cries out to you, trying to get you to listen but you try to go with rational thinking and what makes sense and what doesn't make sense.

As for TWC.. someone please tell the Dodd gal that the NRL just put up an Invest on the SW Gulf and waters around Florida so next time she does the Tropical Update she gives the public better info and doesn't dismiss it as nothing but at least give it a line or two in discussion... hate when on air weather people don't give the most current info on their updates. Dave Schwartz would have been more on top of it. Jeff Morrow said to watch it a few days ago, but he's on location somewhere.. but he knew, deep down in his gut mixed in with a very good knowledge of climo... to keep an eye on it. That's why he is one of the best weather people they have at The Weather Channel.

Nite everyone... I hope one day to get to watch a storm from Cape Hatteras somewhere, it always looks so beautiful, so windswept and scenic and well, for now I'll have to watch The Weather Channel.

For any Gator fans out there... congratulations! I wish the Canes had gotten to play Troy and y'all could have played the Sooners. Maybe next time.

Besos Bobbi
Ps.. I am not saying something definitely will develop around Florida but it is worth investigating which is basically what an Invest is on the NRL site. Just clarifying the facts.