TD12 Forms in Far Atlantic

Does it swim like a fish or stall out and bend back under the high?

NHC says swim like a fish...

Bobbi says... too early to be sure.

Why? Speed of system.
IF the models are right TD12 it is a slow mover... that keeps it in the Atlantic long enough for things to change dramatically... Storms that move fast go out to sea faster. So... watch, wait and admire the beauty of a developing storm.

Note question in the discussion tonight:

A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IN 4 OR 5 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NORTHWESTWARD
TURN LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
GENERALLY AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN HOW FAR WEST THE CYCLONE WILL BE WHEN THE TURN MATERIALIZES. THE
GFS...AND GFDL ARE FARTHER WEST...WHILE THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF ARE
ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND LEANS CLOSER
TO THE GFS/GFDL SOLUTIONS.

note: they always go with the gfdl solution...

So... yes shear may develop and try to do to it what it did to Ingrid.. but as always time will tell ...

Watch and wait a few days to see what it really does and for models based on dropsondes from passing hurricane hunters..which is always more accurate than guesstimates.

Note: discussion mentioned quikscat twice.. notice how often it is now mentioned in discussion as making the call.

So... watch... gulf is not a sure thing, neither is the area closer to the islands but TD12 is a SURE THING, definitely a Tropical Depression and possibly borderline Tropical Storm but the NHC will be conservative this far out with the shear that killed Ingrid still lingering in the Atlantic.

nite all...still raining off and on in Miami...
wet and wild
Bobbi