Tropical Storm Karen

So... as predicted, while we were sleeping the NHC upped the Tropical Depression to a Tropical Storm giving it the beautiful name Karen.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/listImages.pl?m=bnw,se=4,c=IR_108,f=1

Karen is a big, huge storm in the fashion of old classic Cape Verdes. She is not anorexic. Nope. Really not.. and she is getting stronger far out in the Atlantic.

I might say here that Karen is sort of an Indian Summer Cape Verde almost.. only a few days or so past peak of the season storms but most Cape Verde waves have not developed that far out.. it breaks the rule.. and I would ask "why" and what is different about Karen. Is it the conditions, the SAL out there has lessened or it is inherently stronger a system? Hard to say... Size does matter though with storms for many reasons. They take longer to come together and yet they can last longer..then again they can be affected by more things.

Trackers and forecasters though are loving it... for now anyway.

A difficult forecast in the immediate as how many degrees west or how low Karen stays makes all the difference down the line when she is pulled more to the NW and how much to the NW is the question. How much and when?

According to the NHC.. official source or talking horse here they say there is trough that will pull on the storm.. it can either lift the storm faster or it can lift it slower, it can enhance the convection (that hints of possibly explosive growth) or it can shear it more and inhibit it from developing as strong as some of their models indicate and we are talking short term development here.

It's all a matter of degrees. And, without the Gulfstream Jet in there to read the environment the NHC is doing a great job of reading tea leaves and satellite images to get a good idea what this storm will do vs.. climo which would keep it more to the west or at a lower latitude.

Remember ONE thing.. the cone you see is a FIVE DAY cone and not more.. so don't extrapolate where you think it will go.. we will know soon enough down the line.

So..again that old saying which is annoying as hell.. "what does not kill us only makes us stronger" comes into play. Explosive development or... whoosh, whoosh we are gonna blow your storm away.

Watch.. while watching, enjoy the classic song... one of the ones I can listen to and not dwell on other matters. Seeing as I know some of you are real Karen fans..
Enjoy... the comment on yesterday except for the fact.. it is still raining in Miami.

Will update later... a lot of other things to talk on.. a wave closer in and moisture in the Gulf might be doing something but for now... unless something does develop.. Karen is the name of the game... let the games begin ;)



(yeah.. i know... but I've gotten over it.. a long time ago...I can smile just like you..)
Bobbi