Tropical Update ALA BobbiStorm :)

To start with... the NRL site has the "poorly organized" Puerto Rico system on INVEST again back up with the name 97. Something to think on.. they didn't need to point out it was POORLY organized as much as it was ORGANIZED at all. The area has moved along never looking like much but it has maintained it's individuality despite shear and unfavorable conditions and the models have consistently aimed it at Florida so... it's worth watching. Most likely it will look much more poorly organized after taking a bite out of Puerto Rico and possibly the North coast of Hispaniola but it can't be counted out.. especially with that bizarre Canadian model yesterday with something developing close in along the Florida coast.




Also..............although the building Bermuda Ridge may tell the immediate story with Karen, any system that could manage to pull off development would need to be watched to put any kinks into the steering currents that are far from set in stone.

Speaking of steering currents... a long, Neptunium sort of Tropical Discussion was written earlier on the weak steering currents for TD 13 in the Gulf.

"All model guidance agrees that the cyclone should move little during the next 12-24
hr...with perhaps some small-scale looping of the center. "

There is the system around Florida that is not really officially a system however it sure is raining a lot!

Officially from the TWO (tropical weather outlook) at FIVE... they did call it a system, they didn't not say it was poorly organized however they said it had circulation in the mid or upper levels (an innuendo that it could work it's way d o w n to the surface in a few days) and its going to rain like crazy all during Sukkos. Okay, I added that part but it's a salient point for me as I debate whether I should go buy a cheap spare small table to keep in there vs moving the dining room table in like I normally do. My bigger concern with the Florida Rain that is NOT on Invest is..........IF anything were to develop down around PR or just to the nw of there in the Turks and Caicos it could be drawn towards any low pressure that develops around Florida. A lot of coulds, shoulds and maybes but this is a forecast... not a certainty. When you have a Hurricane Warning or a Tropical Storm Warning.. it means you WILL suffer hurricane force winds within 24 hours.. not kinda, maybe, could happen.

This is simple a forecast of possibilities.

Now... we move on to KAREN which is the real game in town for most of us who are not living on the SW Texas coast.

Karen has moved west more than wnw for a good 24 hours and the NHC has finally gone with West vs WNW in their official forecast. That being said.. it will finally probably pull wnw lol. BUT...........this is a very big BUT here... everyone read carefully. BUT...what this shows us is the models that kept predicting the WNW to NW movement in the shorter term were wrong... when one piece of a mathematical formula is wrong, the whole solution is wrong. You can't have one part wrong and get the rest right.. Something HAS to be adjusted or something that has not been noticed is affecting Karen. Could seriously just be the size of Karen. A storm of this size is less likely to be buffeted around by minor steering currents.

Let me say this about Karen's size.. it makes her move a bit slower and be less prone to jerk about as small storms can. It's also harder for her to be shredded by shear. Look at that north band of Karen.. we have seen this in so many Cape Verde storms. It's as if the NW band sort of runs blocker for the whole system so as shear comes at it.. it keeps sacrificing that area a bit and the lower center lumbers along to the West in a sort of "prevent defense" game (which i hate usually but often wins the game). It keeps gaining short yardage moving a bit lower and more to the left of field than forecast and closer and closer to the End Zone and towards running out the clock. This is basically what Karen is doing and I have seen this over and over in large systems that take a long time to set up and get it's act together before exploding down the line.

For the non-football minded here. Let's say you are baking a cake, a small one. You can't mess up the ingredients. Oops... an extra cup of flour is gonna make that baby hard like a rock. BUT.. if you are making a large pot of soup which is going to simmer on the stove for hours... like a good gumbo, it doesn't really matter if you throw an extra onion or carrot in and a little more dill or a little less thyme isn't going to kill it, you can toss an extra parsnip in or a bigger piece of squash and... it sort of just gets richer, won't throw off the overall taste the way it would if you were trying to make lace cookies which need to be made just so or they don't come out right.

Okay.. I think we have covered Karen from most angles enough for most of you to understand what I mean.

BIG STORMS work differently than small ones. It takes longer for them to really come together... it takes more to rip them apart. IF such a storm were to go Major.. it would carry one of the largest high pressure areas in the Western Hemisphere with it.. a real big IF.

Speaking of high pressure... there was high pressure north of her all day yesterday oriented in such a way that there was no way she could go wnw... yet for some reasons the models didn't pick it up. Go figure. Drove me crazy, could see she was going west.

Lastly...there is a beautiful little low latitude system behind her that keeps on trucking. Can't believe it but it does. IF it develops or just hangs in there the outflow over the top of Karen should keep it low. I don't think they are that close that they can't develop... reminds me of 95 or 96 when we had storms spaced out there like this but it will keep it checked for a while and IF it develops, IF .. a big IF it will stay lower than what is currently being forecast for Karen.

So..........bottom line.

Gulf is a big story because of it's proximity to land and the tendency this year for storms to blow up fast just before landfall.

Florida Rain will make many a commuter and many a tourist crazy the next few days. It also makes for a wet sukkos in my world but that's okay... in Miami you learn to expect that even though it's nicer when the weather cooperates. IF you want nice weather for Sukkos... try LA, Santa Barbara or San Diego... a SURE THING! Well, usually. :) So few sure things in life. That reminds me, I need to email someone a L'shana Tova still. In Miami if we get to keep the Sukkoth and not go into Hurricane Supply mode we are happy if wet.

Puerto Rico... oh it's a definite maybe :) Keep watching, something down there is rooted enough that it doesn't die like Ingrid... so that alone is as compelling as the models directing it this way...

KAREN: Wow, beautiful big storm that struggled yesterday organizing itself and trying to get rid of a pocket of dry air that was entrained in her circulation and she kept moving west. This is one of the situations where IF she had developed better, faster then she might have pulled more to the wnw but since she struggled along yesterday she moved more west. With each gain in yardage west, each first down picked up the cone will be tugged just a drop more and more to the left at 5 and 11. That's the name of the game.. 5, 11, 5, 11... working it's way across the Atlantic westward with blood pressure checked every 6 hours to check the progress of movement and to realign the track in concordance with the actual movement of Karen vs forecasted movement. A beautiful, big... storm that could be more of a player than originally predicted by many who wanted to write off her whole life 10 to 15 days out based on early models. She may go out to sea. She may dance in the Sargasso Sea. She may come to dinner for Simchas Torah... she may take one teasing swing at the Outer Banks before recurving out to sea. Stay tuned because the bottom line is she is still a long, long way from land and in my opinion... Just Bobbi here............steering currents are not real set in stone as witnessed by the Florida Rain milling around the looping TD13 in the Gulf.

So.........watch the fronts progress across America... watch the dips in the Jet Stream, watch the Bermuda High build in and watch the shear out ahead of her. You have a whole lot of watching to do for a whole lot of days with Karen.

Here from wunderground.com is a pic of historical tracks for storms like Karen..
sure a lot of possibilities, we are far from a sure thing on any track.. Karen will have some real tricks up her sleeve if you ask me... and be very entertaining:




As for me... I won't be around much the rest of the week. I'll be here today and this afternoon but I will be away for the Jewish Holiday of Sukkos when I am off school and relaxing, watching clouds build, rain fall and reading through recipes and magazines and maybe a novel or two. I'll be giving thanks for what I have and dreaming on what I would love to see happen in my life and the life of my loved ones. Laughing, "off school" that's funny. I feel more like a college kid now than I ever did years ago. I run on semesters these days, on and off and semester break. I always wondered what it was like to work in an Academic environment, now I know. Figures I would love it as I always loved school.

I was one of those smart, happy, popular girls who smiled too much and even the faculty sent me flowers on Mum day or Rose sales. And, that's good... I loved learning, I loved my friends, I loved causes and clubs and keeping busy and cheering on the football team and watching the guys do band practice. Hate me for being popular or love me for being happy and cute, people are like that sometimes. Why do people hate or make fun of popular people? Poke fun at them or make assumptions? There was this group of girls who were in a club with me and my best friend and they pouted and made snide comments at us like we cared... like they could hurt us by whispering whatever they were whispering and giggling and the only thing I honestly thought was how badly I felt for them that they had to be mean. I mean really...there Linda and I were .. sitting under the palm trees, writing our novels, waiting for the guys to come get us to go off to some place or another, happy in our own world and our being happy upset someone who wasn't happy with their life and that is sad... really sad. When I see someone who is lucky or happy.. successful, I am so happy for them, happy they are blessed and I'll never understand how people are envious of other's happiness or success because I just don't have it in me to be that way. Okay, so I can be like little Mary Sunshine sometimes, rolling my eyes and smiling but I don't see how being envious or jealous of others makes the person jealous any happier or more successful. If you want something in life.............GO AFTER IT, with all your heart.. ALL YOUR HEART and SOUL and enjoy life in the process. Focusing on what you don't have will not get you what you need or want or desire.

I know... a long strange rant but I just realized why yesterday bugged me I guess so I am sitting here wondering on life and people.

Truth is darlings... we all have times in our life when we are up.. times we are down, times we are sitting on top of the world as the Carpenters would sing and times when we are down we are down.. No one is on top of the world all the time, to every person there is a season in the sun and if you are lucky... you have a few seasons in the sun, so enjoy them.

So... after trying to figure out what to post.. gonna post this song because well.. Karen may take a while getting her act together but once she does, once she finds her groove... watch out.. she may be a Star.. she may be the next star on the 2007 Hurricane Season. Let the models talk, let the forecasters forecast, stand back and Let Karen Entertain you and wonder about her little sister or brother out there watching waiting for her or his time in the spotlight.




Besos Bobbi ;) sometimes being a muse is good, and I'm fine Jay lol