Tropical Storm Gabrielle and an Area of Interest Closer to Home
So, as Tropical Storm Gabrielle heads towards a brush with the beautiful North Carolina coastline... an invest has been started on the area "around South Florida" for lack of a better description. I would say SW Gulf but.. considering it's storming in Miami tonight and I don't mean the UM Hurricanes.. I mean real rain, tropical rain and a wonderful light show put on by God himself... or Mother Nature if you feel better thinking she's throwing the lightning bolts.
As Gabrielle sits out there slowly moving towards land OVER THE GULFSTREAM, shear has taken a funny moment to leave the room. Definitely looking better and fun to watch as she makes her way onto the radar screens.
Beautiful view of the radar posted by Chris over at HURRCITY:
There are waves off Africa although I like the next wave better than this one. And, possibly the one after that.
And.. over South Florida where we are currently rocking and rolling with a great light show.. we have an invest. And, it occurs to me... could this mess up my plans for Rosh Hashonnah.. oh gosh I hope not. But, where is the center in the mass that I thought was just the dirty side of an Upper Level Low? Good question but I'll tell you one thing. When a real weather person senses something you have to listen and believe in their gut. Standing outside tonight on the front porch, watching the rain come down suddenly, in massive amounts of water there was this smell in the air that wasn't just rain... a whisper in the wind that was blowing quite steady and strong, as I gazed up at the rain pouring down at an angle, illuminated by the streetlight I thought to myself "this is very tropical rain" and then I tried to convince myself it was a passing shower flying in fast from the Gulfstream. But, the thought lingered as did the rain and I opened the windows in my bedroom, turned off the AC and lay there listening to the rain, to the sound of life outside the house and wondered why the rain didn't stop like it usually does this time of year.
A few hours later, some time after my son and daughter-in-law drove up and changed their plans for the FIU game to saying hi and going out to a movie. I received an email with the new advisory on Gabrielle, the excellent discussion from the always talented Beven and a TWO... and low and behold... we were mentioned in the TWO. Something about showers and an old frontal boundary. But, still... random rain does not get a mention in the TWO. Nope.
Shortly after that... an invest on South Florida POPS up on the Navy site (NRL) and voila... we are suddenly in it. Suddenly, there is something to think on... afterall.
The point is..when I first saw the rain tonight I knew something was going on yet the brain tells the heart and soul what to think way too often. There is no substitute for going with Gut Instinct often. Options are good. Analysis is excellent. Scientific methodology is the best way to come to any good conclusion but time and again I am reminded of the value of going with your gut instinct and listening to your heart.
Friday afternoon before Andrew made his turn he was headed off towards the trough. I didn't leave TWC on mute in those days on Shabbos and I didn't leave a weather radio on quietly in a drawer somewhere like I usually did that shabbos. It was a busy weekend, the NHC was SURE Andrew was catching the trough and I probably didn't have any good 9 volt batteries to put in the weather radio and leave it on like I usually did so often when a hurricane was nearby threatening. But, when I went out for a walk on Saturday afternoon, late in the day to visit a friend and walked back and felt the breeze, the strong, steady, nonstop constant breeze blowing in from the NorthEAST from the Ocean a few blocks away across Pine Tree Drive I KNEW... my gut knew that Andrew was out there and hadn't caught the trough. I walked faster, almost ran the last block home in the darkness as the stars had come out and Shabbos was over and I ran in the house and screamed lol "turn on TWC" lol... I knew.
So... musing here a bit late at night but showing you how sometimes you know.. even without proof, without data which will be supplied later that something is going on and which way the wind might be blowing tomorrow even without the use of the water vapor from Unisys.
Sometimes... you are walking down a street and you know someone is watching and you don't need that famous song "somebody's watching you" ... you know.
It's late. I'm going to bed I think.
Going to check back with HurrCity one more time and look around the web, if I can keep my eyes open I'll go over to Selichos or read it here or just sit down in my room, with the windows open and the rain falling outside and talk to God a little bit the old fashioned way.
Gabrielle might just make landfall the way things are going tonight.
A wave off of Africa might just develop sometime in the next week or so.
Maybe, just maybe something will develop around Florida.. the Gulf, the Straits, somewhere north of Cuba and West of the Bahamas somewhere.
Maybe this time in life I will learn to listen to my gut, that still small voice deep inside you that cries out to you, trying to get you to listen but you try to go with rational thinking and what makes sense and what doesn't make sense.
As for TWC.. someone please tell the Dodd gal that the NRL just put up an Invest on the SW Gulf and waters around Florida so next time she does the Tropical Update she gives the public better info and doesn't dismiss it as nothing but at least give it a line or two in discussion... hate when on air weather people don't give the most current info on their updates. Dave Schwartz would have been more on top of it. Jeff Morrow said to watch it a few days ago, but he's on location somewhere.. but he knew, deep down in his gut mixed in with a very good knowledge of climo... to keep an eye on it. That's why he is one of the best weather people they have at The Weather Channel.
Nite everyone... I hope one day to get to watch a storm from Cape Hatteras somewhere, it always looks so beautiful, so windswept and scenic and well, for now I'll have to watch The Weather Channel.
For any Gator fans out there... congratulations! I wish the Canes had gotten to play Troy and y'all could have played the Sooners. Maybe next time.
Ps.. I am not saying something definitely will develop around Florida but it is worth investigating which is basically what an Invest is on the NRL site. Just clarifying the facts.