FELIX A FIVE... Recon heads back after problems

Hurricane Felix is now a Category FIVE hurricane.. joining a short list of other storms that claim that distinction and place in history. Amazingly, it is the second Category Five hurricane in a row........ Of course that makes sense as you have a similar storm following in a similar area along a similar path just weeks apart at the most so ... you know that old story about if you keep doing the same thing you've been doing and you expect to get different results.. well forget psychology but apply that to tropical weather and you get similar storms and similar tracks.

Example: Jeanne and Frances. Almost the same, not exactly the same but very similar and very close together. Not Category Fives thankfully or I probably would be typing this from a basement in Brooklyn as South Florida might have been wiped off the map if those two sisters were Category Fives.. or Katrina and Wilma..back to back hurricanes happen. Look at 1995.

But....I'm rambling. And, the reason I am rambling is that even I am amazed and speechless.

This is an incredible moment in tropical weather history and people will be studying Felix for years to come. People will compare, contrast and try to understand more about why a storm that the models kept "losing" or didn't even want to recognize bombs out at one of the all time strongest of storms. When a model "loses" a storm it basically means the model predicts the storm will fall apart.. wind shear, mountains over Haiti.. some other phenomenon.. UFOs or sunspots lol, seriously... usually when a model "loses" a storm or refuses to recognize it as an entity it is not a sign that the hurricane is going to do anything great or memorable.

The NHC held back on it's intensity forecast for this storm and went conservative the whole way based on the fact that many of their best models refused to show much interest in TD 6 or Felix as a Tropical Storm. On Friday .. late in the day they were still saying it would be a hurricane on Tuesday..

The NHC has been on the money track wise but on timing and intensity forecasting they have been way off and I will remind everyone AGAIN..that is what Bill Proenza and many others there have wanted badly to improve.. intensity forecasting.

Now..they have to rely on model guidance for a historic category five storm that the models have not handled well in the past with regard to timing and intensity.

Now they have to deal with forecasting for a storm that the planes aka RECON had to turn back and exit stage right fast seeing as... the plane was being pummeled by something called grouple (big fast, flying chunks of ice) and lighting in ALL four quandrants... From what I understand the dropsonde dropped in one area ended up too fast in another area, the dropsondes were getting pounded by ice and grouple.. and well we will know more soon other than tidbits and rumors but... sometimes it's best to stop, go back and start over later. Better to err on the side of caution than to lose a plane in a storm. And, imagine they were not expecting to find what they found when they tried to penetrate the eyewall of Felix......as the saying goes, God allows U Turns and so does the NHC.. hope the plane and the crew are okay.

So... what will the NHC do as the night progresses? Watch like the rest of us with satellite imagery and wait til the next plane goes in.. rely on QuikScat and Dvorak and do it the old fashioned way.

AS for the rest of us.. we will stare in amazement at every slight adjustment and modification the storm itself makes as Category Fives... bobble alot, they wobble a lot and they pulse up.. pulse down and then pulse up again and if this storm is going through an eye wall replacement cycle.. I can't imagine what it will look like if it gets stronger.

Things to remember before I go stare a little longer..

Storms this strong can do whatever they want to do and sometimes defy normal climo or track theory.

Sometimes stronger storms want to go poleward.
Sometimes stronger storms like to continue momentum wise in the way they are going.

Felix won't stay a 5..there will be fluctuations.

Felix has a lot more warm, hot water to travel before it hits land and other things can happen up stream (far to its NW where new weather systems are introduced onto the weather maps and as Henrietta moves further away)... stay tuned.

Enjoy, sit and spell, watch him spin, twist and rock and roll because tonight is Felix's night to shine in the spotlight.

Going to do something I rarely do.. going to post message from Recon, amazing message...

Lastly, thankfully Mike Seidel is on TWC tonight and he is one of the best so enjoy watching him enjoy watching Felix... he's doing a great job, as always.

Bobbi :)
Ps..the 11pm Discussion just came out after I wrote this so.. I'll post it as well.
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000
URNT12 KWBC 022347
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 2/2307Z
B. 13 DEG 40 MIN N
72 DEG 43 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2601 M
D. 163 KT
E. 045 DEG 12 NM
F. 142 DEG 152 KT
G. 056 DEG 12 NM
H. 936 MB
I. 25 C/2745 M
J. 26 C/2806 M
K. 4 C/NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C15
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 0906A FELIX OB 10 AL062007
MAX FL WIND 152 KT NE QUAD 2252Z
LIGHTNING ALL QUADS
EXTREME TURBULENCE NE EYEWALL
SFMR WINDS 163 KTS NE EYEWALL
SLP FROM DROPSONDE

...............11 pm Discussion Below...............
000
WTNT41 KNHC 030256
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

SINCE THE TIME OF THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE PENETRATION OF FELIX AT
23Z...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY...WITH
THE HIGHEST OBJECTIVE DVORAK RAW T NUMBERS REACHING T7.3 AROUND
00Z. GIVEN NO NET TREND IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION SINCE THE
TIME OF THE LAST FIX...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 145 KT.
THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...AND FELIX HAS YET TO PASS
OVER THE VERY HIGH HEAT CONTENT WATERS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW CONCENTRIC EYEWALL
STRUCTURE...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE SHORT-TERM
INTENSIFICATION. THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY LARGE-SCALE FACTORS
TO CAUSE APPRECIABLE WEAKENING UNTIL THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH
THE LAND MASS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/18. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT ACCELERATION
OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AS FELIX MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER
ANTICYCLONE. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN ONLY VERY
SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ENOUGH ONLY TO SLOW THE
FORWARD SPEED A BIT...BEFORE FELIX MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF ADDITIONAL
RIDGING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE CHANGE IN HEADING IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AFTER THAT...IT REMAINS UNCLEAR
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE HURRICANE AND A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND THE GULF STATES DURING DAYS 4-5. MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SIX HOURS AGO...IS MORE DIVERSE NOW. THE MAJOR
MODEL SHIFT IS WITH THE GFS...WHICH NOW KEEPS FELIX OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND OUT OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT SOUTHWARD...BUT STILL LIES IN THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0300Z 13.9N 73.9W 145 KT