Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, April 30, 2023

1 Month to 2023 Hurricane Season - Rainy Day in the Carolinas, Storms Over Florida. Cold Fronts Still Moving Past Cuba... Year of Hail and Unexpected Weather. What Will Hurricane Season Bring???

That's a beautiful system.
Caused lots of weather drama.
Huge, sprawling system.
Reaches beyond Cuba....
..into the Caribbean.

Below you see another version.

This is what Dabuh was showing this morning.
In his always artistic and musical way.

There are things you see that once you see you can't unsee. Sometimes we look at the satellite loops and they speak to us in unique ways. 

Mike aka Spaghetti Models has this on the page.
Hidden there... "Bobbi's Loop" I think
No it's not the man in the moon.
It's Planet Earth.
Songs come to mind...

Spinning in tandem.
The atmosphere is always awesome!

A good water vapor loop is better than a crystal ball! And, when you can turn the world around and watch how it all connects, moves in tandem with other atmospheric currents it's as if there is this huge ballet going on while you sleep. Lows go towards Lows, they gang up together and they try and stay away from Highs that try and block anything headed their way. We are month away from the start of the 2023 Hurricane Season. 

So many questions.
El Nino? What kind of El Nino?
Where does shear set up in the Caribbean from the impending El Nino?
Warm water in the distant Atlantic out by Africa. 
How much Saharan Dust will there be?

If you zoom in you'll see it's May 1st in Africa.
30 days til Hurricane Season.
15 days til NHC puts out the Tropical Weather Outlook

And, I'm sitting in Raleigh listening to the rain fall as well as the rolling thunder that was not in the forecast for this time period. We were expecting "light rain" and the system moves out and the cold front moves in. And, yet the strongest thunder of the day ...the longest rolling thunder of the day was tonight when it wasn't expected. I mention this as 2023 seems to be the Year of the Unexpected Weather Wise. Tornadoes flipping cars in South Florida, grapefruit size hail when pebble hail was expected. Cool weather in May after a hot March and a somewhat more pleasant April. Time will tell. 

But day by day we are getting closer to Prime Time... 2023 Hurricane Season.  The NFL Draft is over. 

Calendar flipping pages faster than a kid sneaking a peak at a book to see what happens in the end without reading the whole story. Do you do that? I don't. I like to take things one day at a time.

Stay tuned...
Not going to proof this as I'm tired and just kind of mellow like relaxing and watching everything late at night as the thunder moves further away and the rain tapers off. 

Next 5 days.
Beautiful weather.

Willie Nelson turned 80!
My oh my ...oh my gosh.
Oh my goodness.
Love him.

He's incredible in concert ;)

Stay tuned.
Sweet Tropical Dreams,
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Twitter mostly weather and Instagram whatever.

Love this song... 
... listened so much in LA.
Years ago...
..been listening to Willie that long.

Friday, April 28, 2023

Do You Live in Hurricane Country? Is 2023 the Year of Hail? Wild Severe Weather in the South As We Move Towards Hurricane Season...


If you received this in the mail recently....'s Metro Dade's way of saying "Get Ready!"
As you live in Hurricane Country.

Best part is it's divided into 3 parts.
Before. During. After.

Says it all.
Make lists. 
Divide them into these 3 categories.

Most people do not realize the importance of this and run out grabbing anything a neighbor told them they need to get for a hurricane. Canned food over frozen food, obviously, was the number one item to grab back in the day when canned food was all the rage. Canned Tuna needs a can opener, obviously but not so obvious as I can't tell you how many times someone told me they forgot to buy a hand held can opener for AFTER the Hurricane when the power was out and their electric one was not working. Tuna and Salmon in those little bags you tear open are good to keep and easy to store.

Telling you this now as t's a perfect example of how not thinking properly on how to manage AFTER a hurricane when the ELECTRIC (and cable) is out and you can't get money from an ATM nor can you open your can of tuna can be a real bummer. When the power goes out... you cannot get money from an ATM, you cannot get GAS to get out of town and you cannot open a can that does not have a pull top!

You know those little packages of mustard, ketchup and mayo that Fast Food places give out that you either throw away or hoard? You may want to buy them online if you are not a hoarder.... they are available at Walmart (this image) or Amazon or anywhere that sells these in bulk. They are great for trips and great for hurricane supplies. If you hoard them... make sure they are in good shape and throw whatever looks good in a in with the hurricane supplies, preferably one that is in a large rubbermaid or plastic storage container as sometimes things in a house can get wet during a hurricane. Don't want to scare newbies to Florida from the great Covid Migration but things can get sketchy during a hurricane and the power may go out and the corner bodega will not be open to grab some coffee from immediately after the storm passes. 

This is your friend unless you like black coffee.
Prepare according.
Has a pull top can opener needed.

Before the storm...
Prepare your property, stock up on supplies to hunker down.
If you are getting out of Dodge fast then prepare what you need to take with you.
Also, board up your home before you go... for many reasons.

During the storm....
Where will you "hunker down" ??? (interior hallway, bathroom, large closet is best)
Keep your supplies where you can reach them where you are hunkering down....
In a dry, safe place far from the window or doors where water may enter...
     (I don't want to scare you but yes that can happen)
Keep cellphone fully charged, plugged in ...until the power goes out and keep them on airplane mode.
Let someone in your family know you stayed and assure them you're okay. 
      You might not be, but no reason to scare them ;)
Follow the news on the hurricane by way of BATTERY OPERATED RADIOS.
      Did I mention you will need A LOT of batteries for during and AFTER the Hurricane.
Even tho you hate using paper plates and disposable things ...they are your friend after a storm.
    Water may be off or you may be told not to use it yet so napkins, paper cups work in emergencies.
            Life is kind of primitive after a hurricane hits.... do what you got to do.
Know where your flashlights are at all times... keep them very close at night.
Keep your shoes on when the hurricane has begun or keep them next to you.
Accidents happen, trust me and looking for the First Aid in the dark with the winds howling...
           Trust me.....keep First Aid nearby and don't wander around the house. 
                          Unless you have experience as a storm chaser, hunker down..stay inside!

After the Storm....
This is when most people get hurt and amazingly die after they survive the actual hurricane.
Accidents from falling off ladders to trying to cut down tree limbs blocking the house...
No one is at their best AFTER a hurricane has redecorated your neighborhood with debris...
     Do not drive onto flooded roads that are barricaded off for your safety.
              They are not being over protective they are trying to save your life.
Take note of what you need, what is broken and keep your kids and pets corraled somewhere safe.
Conserve anything using battery power or any device such as the phone that needs to be charged.
Make sure your generator is safely set up as they are wonderful but there are dangers inherent in their use.
Text a relative you are okay and you'll get back to them and "no you can't talk" but you'll be in touch.
Conserve food use.
Don't be locked in, pretend you are camping out or at a picnic.
Eat peanut butter on the little graham cracker cookies.
Keep the fridge shut as much as possible. 
You get the idea but honestly, unless you have been through a real hurricane you don't really know.
Logical things like don't let the kids try to climb the tree that's tilting at an odd angle after the hurricane.
Don't assume the power was shut off and walk thorugh puddles where a live wire may be...
         After Hurricane Irene in South Florida a mother walking her dog with her son were killed this way.
                It happens often, sadly. 
Treat every downed wire as if it is LIVE... 
I hope you listened to me and bought crayons for the kids for after the hurricane, they have no batteries. 
          If you have been hoarding the little packs from the Olive Garden and Chilis is their time!

Note AFTER the Storm ...IF you are staying at home.........has the longest list.

I'll add what do you do in May?
In May you take stock of things. 
You check out if the hurricane shutters work. 
Are you missing any parts to put up the hurricane shutters.
Does your drill work well?
Do you know where a large blue tarp is... maybe add that to the list as you may need it.
Are those old batteries you have held onto since Hurricane Dorian was nearby still working.
The list goes on and on.

Pet Food?

Everyone has their own list.
What are YOUR needs?

Do it now as we are almost a month away from Hurricane Season.

Many people have asked me.

Is this pattern of severe weather with unusually large hail and violent winds a sign that we will have bad hurricanes close in around Florida or along the Gulf Coast?

yesterday's reports of hail and high winds!
Today's satellite signature... more on the way.

Hard to say as every sign of a busy season can be mitigated by another sign that would show a slower than average hurricane season. Every forecast for a busy season does not mean it will be busy and every forecast for a slow season is ripe with memories of when a Major Hurricane made landfall.

Blue tracks are usually your friend.
Lack of hurricanes.
Forecat to be above average.
Deaths in Central America from 1 hurricane.
Only takes 1!

Take the 2013 Hurricane Season, it was forecast to be above average and yet most tropical disturbances had problems becoming tropical depressions or storms and they all have problems becoming hurricanes. In fact a few pulled together than fell apart then pulled together again but did not develop much. Never mention 2013 to a Hurricane Chaser, trust me just don't. But it's an example of a forecast gone wrong. And, 1997 was forecast to be a busy hurricane season and then an El Nino on steroids came on fast and heavy and it was a slower than normal season, a very slow but memorable hurricane season.

Don't listen to hype on El Nino making it a slow season.
Don't click on Click Bait articles promising you a slow season.
It only takes 1!

As for our current weather set up...........

Yes, the hail has been horrendous and of almost biblical proportions in Florida. 
Yes, the rainy season may be starting early and if so that bodes badly for South Florida as the ground is saturated (even for S FL) and bugs are breeding in standing water and where Low Pressure exists is a popular draw for anything that forms nearby at the edge of an old decaying front or a weak, early tropical wave that made it across the Atlantic and finds a place with low shear where it has a chance of spinning into a tropical disturbance of some kind. May Hurricanes do happen... 

So prepare.
Don't believe Click Bait.
Check with the NHC and your local NWS often.
Don't throw this away if you got it in the mail, it's not JUNK MAIL it's there to help protect you before, during and after the Hurricane. 

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Twitter mostly weather and Instagram weather and whatever.

Good video of yesterday's event... shows how hail looked as if snow had covered the highway in Florida.
As a child I saw the schoolyard covered in hail as if snow had fallen, yes it melted fast. 
It was as close as I came to seeing snow growing up in person. 
Wild memory.

As for the Hurricane Season of 2023

If you ever went thru Katrina or Donna.
Jeanne or Frances.
You'll know what I mean...
...goes for Georges, Floyd and Ian too.

Tuesday, April 25, 2023

Whatever is in Your Grab Bag In Case of Trouble - Belongs in Your Hurricane Supplies. Easy Way to Start Doing Hurricane Prep


Nate Johnson tweeted this image with the question "what would you do if you had to evacuate in a hurry" in this case if you were in a hotel and there was a Fire Alarm. I'm not one to overly worry though I'm fairly orderly in what I do when unpacking in a hotel room. I don't obsess over a problem happening such as fire, though I lost a close friend in Champlain Towers South and it was a while before I felt comfortable in a large hotel. Yeah, I shaked it off and stayed with my daughter in a beautiful large hotel in Myrtle Beach where we obsessively watched and listened to news on what was happening in Surfside ...but the reality of "what if" seemed closer and more real than it had in years. I thought going away for a day or two might help us, but we were obsessed, a bit emotionally broken and we did have a lot of good quality time together. But I remember walking through the halls and well being a bit morbid.

In truth it's a great concept to apply to Hurricane Season as well as many "Natural Disasters" such as Tornadoes or Earthquakes. Having a Grab Bag or "To Go Bag" in case of an emergency is where you begin when thinking on how to prepare.

I mean what's more important than your license, medical insurance cards, credit cards, medication and yes probably in my case make up?  Sorry, but I really enjoy being a girl in all ways. Change of clothing? Laptop or Chromebook. Phone and various chargers and portable charger or "power bank" that is fully charged are important as is a small radio with batteries and back up batteries. The list goes on for whatever your personal needs are and that would include a diaper bag for young parents, small favorite toy (think stuffed animal) for a little child. Flashlight of some sort that is easily portable and extra batteries. Seriously you do not want to wear down your phone battery using it as a flashlight in the dark....

The new electronic devices with the little cords that allow you to charge your phone, radio, hair dryer and the list goes on are wonderful but they are based on your ability to charge your device to an electrical outlet.

Mike posted this a while ago.
Bought one, not bad. Has the crank device.

I hate to remind anyone who has not gone through a landfalling Major Hurricane that your power may be out for days, weeks even unless you have a generator at home and your home is still in realtively standing order... and the gas tanks didn't blow away ....then you will most likely manage. If you evacuate after the storm (a sometimes timely difficult process) you will need to have things you can grab to take with you as time is of the essence usually.

2005 Hurricane Season and South Florida...

Note all 3 of these hurricanes came close enough to SFL
...for South Florida to have mutliple power shortages.
Especially after Katrina slammed us head one.
Rita was a "Drive By" but trees tilting fell down.
Power Grid, leaking roofs continued.
Then Wilma knocked everything down again.

This is what you call a PATTERN
Variations in the pattern.
But a pattern.

Lessons Learned

Not being funny, but I am, because the scramble to charge our cell phones after Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma blowing away out electrical grid was a never ending battle of wits. Someone in the family didn't want to waste gas that was impossible to find post storm ... all day charging batteries for their siblings. Luckily, he had a job that eventually opened at a local Barnes and Noble that had underground electric so he'd take everyone's phones to work, charge them ( a lot of trust here but he came through) and then return them in the evening and finally we solved that problem. Yes, the house phone in the kitchen did work! I remember that because another son called from New York to tell me that Michelle Malkin was linking to my blog and I wasn't blogging. When I explained to him I had no electric for my computer he told me to "speak slowly" and he'll post the blog for me after giving him the password (so much trust comes into play after a hurricane when trying to live a normal life) and so I slowly, carefully put out a blog post explaining what was going on first hand in Miami from Hurricane Katrina that stole our utilities, trees, rooftops in some places and yet Miami's troubles barely made the news after Katrina went on to rampage her way across Mississippi and Louisiana. 

After the power grid was threaded back together again, trees were cleaned up and stores and work places opened up finally and then we were hit again by Rita and then Wilma. It was a long few months. I barely was able to work as the library was closed and no I didn't get paid for that time! Trees that were standing but leaning came down in the next two storms (including a huge ficus tree across the street that blocked the street for weeks by the time Wilma hit it again) and the power grid that was barely put back together was fragile and gone with the wind from Wilma. At least Wilma rode a diving cold front and the air was blessedly cooler AFTER Wilma than Andrew in August years before. Did I mention rats run wild when the power is out in a neighborhood? You might want a grab bag to go somewhere til the power comes back on if that's an option for you........

ID, Cash, Credit Cards
Medicine (pills, inhlaer, etc)
       Allergies will be off the chart after a hurricane so make sure you have whatever you need.
              MOLD from piles of wet debris in the hot sun for weeks if not months.
Phone batteries, chargers, power bank...whatever you will need.
Change of clothing. Change of shoes. Sweater or Coat depending on the time of year.

In truth I don't obsess on this much but if I lived in Earthquake Country or where Twisters danced across the landscape damaging any semblance of normal I'd keep a Go Bag. And, to add to that North Carolina is prone to Nighttime Tornadoes and a few times I have put my purse in a safe place as well as a pair of shoes. That said...........when I venture out of my apartment into the storm, take photos I take my phone usually not my ID. Hmmn. 

After Andrew I learned one important lesson with children...............
Feed the kids early while the light from outside that filters into the dark house is readily available. The house on Miami Beach had huge windows and we had wonderful light until about 5 or 6 PM when the angle lessened and darkness settled in.... kids needed to have their shoes by them, snacks, toys whatever. Conserving the batteries we used for radio and mini TV (before cable) was huge and frustrating. Years later we moved to North Miami Beach into a house designed for AC meaning there were barely any windows and the house got dark by 4 PM... Try it, turn all your the lights off in your condo (usually limited windows) or home and see how much light you have after the sun begins slowly to set and add in IF THIS WAS A REAL HURRICANE not a drill you would have very little ambient light from outside if all the power on your street was out.

You learn to keep things close.
Be organized.
Corral First Aid Supplies on an easily accessible table.

You learn a lot of things once you have been through such a hurricane season or a Major Hurricane. 

Advice from Google is excellent but it doesn't quite break it down enough. Keep snacks and medical supplies somewhere easily accessible. Guard the snacks with your life if you have children, seriously.

Honestly my kids were great in 2005, they set up a fake BBQ Pit in the driveway with large coral rocks they found ... cooked once frozen defrosting turkeys people dropped off and made cook outs. They adapt easily I'll give them credit. Oh, if you have a child who has claustrophobia and or is a afraid of the dark buy some Tap Lights (and lots of batteries) and let them have their own light to keep with them.. it helps, trust me.

Stay tuned...  37 Days until 2023 Hurricane Season begins officially if not sooner.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Twitter mostly weather... Instagram weather and whatever

Monday, April 24, 2023

GOM Blob Wants to be the BOC Blob. Rain Chances UP Again For Florida. Wave Approaching South America Low But There... 38 Days Til Hurricane Season!


Do you wake up and check the NHC even though you know there is nothing there... just in case... something pops up? If so you may be tropically obsessed. And it's kind of a good habit to do before going on Twitter or your favorite social media group where models and possible pop up storms are being discussed in late April. It's very late April which means it's 38 days until Hurricane Season; I've always liked the number 38 as it's ripe, rich, full...maybe it's just me ;)

Good thing I checked the NHC site first...right?

Definitely "something" there...

That's the EURO... tracks it a bit.
Disappates .... 
Models consistently showed it.
But in "real life" that's intense!

1st image in the loop.......
vs current image in the loop.

Storms crashing into the Bay of Campeache
vs forming in the BOC and moving N
April NOT June.
But what will May bring?

What's actually intersting is that off the coast of South America is a lead tropical wave that has swam across the sea, too early and yet it held together as an entity. That is something to remember as we are getting closer to the real Hurricane Season. And, yes the BOC area sure is bright on any satellite imagery.

Definitely something there....
...and it crashes into the Yucatan/BOC

As you can see... top 3 there's a red Low
Then gone.
Then life goes on...
.........but dangling fronts in May are problematic.

Many a May Storm forms at the tail end of a front.

Stay tuned.

More rain for Florida

Sorry but rain chances are way up for Florida.
Not officially from monsoonal pattern...
...but definitely rainy season.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Twitter mostly weather...
Instagram weather and whatever

Link to that loop I was referring to ... it's one of my favorites.

Thursday, April 20, 2023

Tornadoes in Oklahoma Last Night - 2 Merged into ONE - Rare Fujiwara Effect! Tornado Chasing so Different From Hurricane Chasing...

Last night was all about Tornadoes and almost everyone in the Weather Community was online somewhere watching or out chasing in person. I don't really chase tornadoes though I have gotten very close to one a more than once. I'm a tropical girl and I chase tropical storms, weak hurricanes and wild lines of monsoons coming across Biscayne Bay in Miami with thunder, lightning and looking like the world is about to end! Sometimes you see a funnel cloud, sometimes you see waterspouts but that's nothing like Twisters out in the wide open in Kansas, Oklahoma or even Iowa. In Iowa when near a tornado the sky turns dark, there's few cars on the road and I've never seen corn bend like that...........

Snapped from my son's balcony....
... typical Miami end of the world storm!

But last night I watched Reed Timmer chasing with others as well as some coverage from KOCO Live and KFOR in Oklahoma City. I watched radars, I watched Satellite Imagery and I watched Reed having fun doing what he loves doing and that in itself is a Joy! Best times in life are often when you are doing something you love vs something someone else tells you will you love doing but you do not. Sometimes you gotta do what yo gotta do whether you like it or not but when you have a chance to do what you love........DO IT!

So rare to see a Fujiwara happen with tornadoes.
It'll be studied for a long time to come.
Reed has a PhD
He's always actively involved in research.
People forget that I think...

I just love weather.
I love photography.
Took this in Raleigh....
...trees always obscure the sky.

Different day... trees in the way always.

I digress. The reason I'm blogging on this tonight is that it hit me last night how different chasing a tornado is vs a hurricane. It's hit me many times before and I've talked on it when lecturing, but again it hit me as such a huge difference. Tropical Weather you watch a tropical wave or the tail end of a decaying cold front and you keep checking it and checking the models and watching the water vapor loop and it goes on and on before a Tropical Depression even forms. Those of you who watched Ian from the first little collection of clouds waving on satellite imagery while models showed horrendous trouble ahead if it pulled together (as models predicted) and made it into the Gulf of Mexico which it did in real time ....and we watched for days and days. 

To try and find a location to chase a hurricane is something that evolves in real time, but during that real time we have watched the named storm for sometimes days, weeks and while it takes aim at one part of the Florida coast or Mississippi coast people who live there have time to get out of the way, get to safety or to hunker down safely before the hurricane arrives with their hurricane supplies that will be needed for weeks to come if not months.  In contrast a line of twisters form fast on a day when the sky could have been bright blue and cloudless and models and a gut instinct help chasers get into place fast for a chase that's fast and extremely compelling, happening in real time. Yes we see the potential is there days out and potential doesn't always pan out. 

Anyone following the saga of gas problems in Miami this week, not to mention certain products in stores that are lacking because Port Everglades was closed due to the rare, strange flooding event. recently should make anyone who thinks they don't need to worry on putting together hurricane supplies in South Florida...think again and prepare! If a day of flooding can shut down the supply chain, think what a landfalling hurricane will do to areas around the landfall even if you were spared the brunt of the worst winds or storm surge.

I also love Hail and Reed works with hail, last night he was excited like a child picking up baseball hail that looked more like a small grapefruits. I find hail fascinating, always have and always will.

Weather is fascinating.

People ask me often "why would you chase a storm?" or "isn't it dangerous chasing a hurricane?" and I always tell them it's way better chasing a storm with friends who have tons of experience setting up in the safest place with good information ...........rather than have a Category 5 Hurricane chase you to your house where your loved ones live. Trust me.... way better. Growing up in Miami I went through many hurricanes when young and I lived on Miami Beach when Andrew made a beeline to us before it bobbled South just a drop sparing Miami Beach a direct hit and slamming into South Dade and the Homestead area.

My pretty Roaring 20s house survived!
As the crow flies it sits 4 blocks West of the Ocean.
House went through the 1926 Hurricane!
I could hear the ocean waves over the wind at times.

So while a tornado is NOW, FAST and intensely immediate.....hurricanes are like keep watching, keep watching, keep watching.... but when they are there in your face they are timeless and forever engraved in your brain as if it's become a part of your very own DNA. Every hurricane you go through stays with you in some way you never forget! You're either terrified of them or hooked! You're either trying to figure out how to get out of town if it arrives or you are waiting on new data in the middle of the night from Recon and waiting on the 2 AM Intermediate Advisory..........

Love the beach on a stormy day.
Best part of living in NC is the beach in Wrightsville.
Ocean Isle Beach, Atlantic Beach.
Pick a much hurricane history!

Then issue with Severe Weather is it happens fast and then is over just as fast. Whereas a hurricane gives me days of being obsessed with every detail from structure to it's movements vs models, which model is working better, which satellite I prefer... talking to friends sharing information, staying up late at night waiting on recon data or being at the beach watching sea foam fly down the beach and feeling the energy of the wind, the waves and getting a feel up clsoe and personal for what this storm really has in it. Definitely a tropical girl but love hail, love snow and love the wind!

What do you love?

Sweet Tropical Dreams, 
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Twitter mostly weather and Intagram weather and whatever.

Here... you choose which is more fun to "chase" or watch someone chase? Tornado? Hurricane? Or it's all good because you love weather?


Feel free to fast forward, look around.... compare and contrast or just enjoy! Remember this video is from last night's tornado and is longer than the one that was cut down and shown below. 


And, remember data from storm chasers can be as relevant as other data compiled from many sources. Especially when looking back and evaluating the storm after it is over. 

One of the best storm chasers of hurricanes is iCyclone, his name is synonymous with HURRICANE. His work is everything as you can see from Hurricane Dorian below, but know his data collected and damage evaluation is invaluable especially with intense storms that make landfall in places where few storm chasers dare to go.

Special mention award to Mike who started chasing the last few years. He's hooked! 

Love listening to Mike talk :)

Wednesday, April 19, 2023

Message to Remember! Weaker than Average Seasons Due to El Nino ...Can Deliver Major Hurricanes to Remember. Quiet Tropics Still...Good Time for Hurricane Prep! Cold Fronts Still Coming....


Strong front to the North.
Departing Front.
Tail has some strong moisture near Cuba.

Salient Point for the Day from Tweet below!
Worth remembering........

This is a message that cannot be shared enough, cannot be stressed enough! Especially at a time that news outlets looking for Clickbait that will gain traction, it is worth remembering when you see multiple stories on how El Nino is forming and it is due to be a quieter hurricane season.  While that may or may not be true as the arrival of El Nino is filled with more questions than answers and what we do know from El Nino seasons is that storms have problems spinning due to shear (in certain areas) and so many tropical disturbances do not make it and therefore there is a slightly lower total of storms. BUT sometimes fairly frequently they will put it together closer in to land. 

Weak, fumbling around by the Yucatan.
Mets arguing if it would survive.
Some said it could thrive.
Close to land Michael exploded.
Those of us online late at night remember.
It was wild, a wildly horrific tragedy.
Late in the season.... 

Andrew in August... late A storm.
Weak early season.
From Blue to Orange/Red FAST.
Never looked back .... 
Florida - Louisiana Double Hitter.

As Toren Hynes points out... 
Hurricane Harvey developed close to land.
A long, exhausting track across Caribbean.
Caribbean a bit closed to development.
But close in to Texas... it was easy to develop!
Toren is good to follow, by the way!

It's just a message that cannot be ignored and needs to be remembered. Yes, a strong El Nino can shut down the Caribbean as shear develops ....think of it as an outflow from El Nino.... it happens often but if a tropical disturbance can hold it together until it gets past the shear it can slam into Texas or the Florida Panhandle or anywhere in that area where the GOM water temperatures are HOT HOT HOT and shear down in the Caribbean doesn't tear it apart or stop if from going Major Hurricane.

Lesser than Average Hurricane Seasons are often the years with the worst Major Hurricane that no one can ever forget, so remember that NOW! Not when you tried to find hurricane supplies after everything was already grabbed and gas is running low because everyone has already been filling up their gas tank!

A good place to stop:

If you'd like to do some Hurricane Reading a good place to start is the link below from Jim Wililams who updated the 2022 data base... a long, tedious job that provides us with tons of data!

Euro from

I did say I'd mention models so here is a model showing something there in the Atlantic trying to form or at least to remind you Hurricane Season is 43 days away .... and then a diving cold front reminds you that Mother Nature is not done with Wintry weather yet so don't put those cute boots away and hold onto the hoodie which you need in South Florida always because everyone keeps the AC down cold enough for it to feel like a brisk Autumn Day. If  you know you know........and I know.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,


@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Twitter mostly weather and Instagram is weather and whatever :)