Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Saturday, January 30, 2021

Winter Weather ... The Beat Goes On and ON ... A Definitely Maybe. I Love Winter Weather... Tropical Weather... Any Weather


This was snow on the oak tree near me earlier this week.
The snow turned out to be real where I live.
No asterisk... real snow flakes!
We had close to 2 inches :)
My neighbor's roof still has some snow on it!
I just love that - it makes it feel more like winter...
...when you look outside and see snow on a rooftop.
Most of the snow melted fast.
But not before I took some pictures...
...and a walk around the neighborhood.

Yes it snowed at night....
That's the tree beneath the street light.
It was beautiful in the morning...
...and a little bit of snow flurries fell around sunrise.

Tonight and tomorrow there's another chance.......
...a chance of winter weather.
It's very iffy and interesting.
This finger of winter weather pointed this way.
Models for a few hours from now..

Reminds me of some song..
Straight from the heart??
Anyway... We will see.

This model avoids Raleigh like the plague.
If only the plague avoided Raleigh!!

Raleigh seems to have figured out how to hide ...
...from winter weather.
After the Snow Disaster a few years ago...
...we obviously figured out how to stop that mess.

Maybe we have a snow force field??
Being silly.....
I'm hoping for frozen precipitation personally...
The NWS discussion is all over the place.
In theory it slides to the North of us... maybe.
Who knows?
What I've learned living here is this rule!
Maybe yes, maybe no. 
Watch in real time!

Time will tell.
As always I watch the local weather people I trust.

Is that kind of strange or what?
But totally logical.

And the beat goes on...

I like winter and I am unapologetic to those who dislike snow and thought moving to Raleigh would save them from snow, they should have moved down to Jacksonville Florida if they really wanted to avoid snow though sometimes they get a few flakes. The slightest variation in any one of several parameters can change the forecast and we could have more than expected or be robbed of frozen P Types while Roxboro NC gets all the winter weather. I'd think on moving there but it's a bit far from my coast and less likely to get hurricane impacts but just like Greensboro it gets more than Raleigh usually.

Have a wonderful, happy and very HEALTHY weekend and eventually sooner rather than later we will be talking tropical. As for me my son gave me money for my birthday to buy myself something and I bought a Cashmere V Neck Sweater in black on sale from somewhere and I'm loving it and living in it these days so let's keep talking winter weather for now. I love SNOW ... can you tell??

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Twitter is usually weather, Instagram is whatever

Wednesday, January 27, 2021

The Promise of Snow - In Raleigh It ALWAYS Comes with an Asterisk


Allan tends to be my "go to" source in Raleigh regarding models.
Over time he has been very consistent.
But snow forecasting is always an edgy proposition here.
Between the mountains and the sea...
Elevation matters but so does location of the system itself.
And they set up in real time... like flying in under the radar.
Until it's either bust or "oh my God!!"

Not like tracking hurricanes........

The "King Euro" is shown above.
It's not always right but people ask so there it is..
All of these are from
A fantastic site to while away the hours on....

....the GFS below.

Similar but a bit different.

And since we are in the "overnight" window...
..the NAM weighs in below.

Seems like a "sure thing"
But snow is never a sure thing in the Triangle.
But trust me I am sure hoping we slammed.

Yesterday the high temperature forecast was pretty much a disaster as cold air damning set up and cooler than expected temperatures by up to a ten degree difference. A cold wedge set up and won out over the expected warmer temperatures; worked for me as I do not want warm temperatures in January unless I'm visiting Miami but it made me feel the chance of snow this week was definitely a possibility. I actually stay here in the winter and go to Miami in the summer... I know crazy.

The models play this "maybe yes" "maybe no" "oh it's going around you" (yes that happens in Raleigh) and the Weather Apps change their snowflake to raindrops graphics every six hours based on new models. What they put in days ago they took away and the one small snowflake next to two raindrops began to creep back in. I've lived here long enough (now longer than I lived in California...) to know that until "it" sets up in real time we are basically making the best educated guess and it's not a "thing" until snowflakes begin to continually fall from the sky. I've been burned so many times that I've learned not to wear my snowy heart on my sleeve and keep it inside where I nourish it and keep on hoping with the knowledge that it's late January going into February that the odds are on my side that one of these systems will actually produce some form of frozen precipitation. I'm not picky, I'll take any of them but I'd prefer snow falling in the daytime to sleet any day, but I'll take sleet if it's on the menu.

(NE not NC but good Tweet)

Tomorrow at this time we will know just what this part of North Carolina that's kind of the Piedmont but at the base so it's less of a sure thing than say Greensboro that always wins the snow or thunderstorm lotto. It's good to have a sense of humor when dealing with snow possibilities in this particular region. It's been a weird year, let's be honest, Texas has had more snow than most of New England and NE got all excited last night because it actually snowed. The storm track down by Louisiana that was set in tropical stone this past hurricane season is still creating a storm track this winter that may amp up this Spring once Tornado Season sets up but they had a taste of that in Alabama yesterday with a deadly EF3 Tornado. Yes, I always think on the Hurricane Season but hey with snowflakes in my forecast that's on the back burner.

Note the bottom line...
They aren't brining the roads.
Because rain is expected first so...
...that always sets us up for "huh? what happened?"
Time will tell.

The truth is I love living here and yes it definitely took a while. I'm a Capricorn, so I love that cold, dark winter look that this region gets this time of year punctuated by dark green pine trees and always stunning magnolia trees - when the sun comes out and the sky is Carolina Blue it's beautiful! I also love the way naked trees look each with their own unique pattern of branches that this time of year can look so white they look like twisted ivory. Spring is never far off in the future in this region so I savor ever moment of "winter" be it a wintry look, fresh cool air, a chance to wear boots or leggings and yet not be encumbered by heavy winter gear such as gloves, mittens or scarves though at least once a year we drag them out. I get a chance of hurricanes and a beach close enough away that I can go and play in Tropical Storms taking images and finding a restaurant somewhere open in Wilmington on the River Walk and one of the best Trader Joes anywhere. But I do wish we had just a little more snow and I do wish I could rely on any forecast, even by the experts, but I've learned Winter Storms in these parts set up in real time so I've learned to go with the flow and just keep praying it will snow.

2 to 3 inches....
..a definitely maybe.

Stay tuned.
Tomorrow I will be either heartbroken weather wise..
...or excited beyond words to see snow on the ground.

Let's hope my snow flakes don't turn into asterisks.
Stay well, stay happy and stay in touch.

Besos BobbiStorm
@Bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps .... I'll tell you once more... don't bring me down!
Going to live in my "maybe" snow bubble dreams today.
Malibu got snow and so did Arizona.
When my bro in Greece gets snow as he did the other day...
...I've noticed we get some snow and vice a versa.
So here's to hoping... 
...don't bring me down!

Monday, January 18, 2021

2021 Hurricane Season? Too Soon To Talk About It. It May be Similar, Yet Differences Always Abound. A Look at 1995 and 1996 Similar But Different.


The winter sky yesterday in Raleigh, North Carolina.
Magnificent really.
Just a blanket of clouds, rippled and wintry.

It's been a while since I blogged and I keep saying I will blog more often, but it's the "off season" for me and not much going on tropically speaking and winter wise we are in a mild sort of mode of "really cold days" "not so cold days" "warming up" and then some "really cold days" starting the cycle over again. Weather is by nature cyclical and it has it's ups and downs be it winter or deep in the hurricane season. As Cranky online would often say "rinse and repeat" and so far 2021 has been very "rinse and repeat" indeed.

I don't want to write "coming this 2021 Hurricane Season" blogs in January, as long time followers of my blog know how much I dislike pronouncements on what the season will be like in March and April so I definitely am not going to go there in Mid January. The news cycle has been so heavy the last few weeks and I've seen many leave Twitter and other social media platforms, I'm guessing many will rejoin with another name possibly or not - don't know so can't say and that's how I feel about the 2021 Hurricane Season it's too soon to say. I'm just doing my thing and that's watching those I respect, enjoying pictures of the weather related kind and following the news with one eye closed and the other squinting. I'm that person who turns off the local news when they do a horrid story on some child dying or drowning or a car going off the .... (don't know I turn it off) as I really am a bit fragile on subjects that upset me considering I have a very good imagination. 

That said..........I cannot imagine exactly how this hurricane season will be as it's so far away and there are so many intangibles we cannot imagine yet or conjure up in a crystal ball currently so if I said anything it would be taking a stab in the dark of winter. But I have read many colleagues thoughts and they all basically the same in that the 2021 Hurricane Season will be very similar to the overly active hurricane season of 2020. I can see that as a strong possibility and as far as patterns go.... Louisiana is still getting slammed by winter systems the way they were getting tropical systems several months back. Let's hope that pattern modifies somewhat before May and June. Note this is the main point of my blog today, similar back to back seasons are different in the details and we all know the devil is always in the details.

1995                                        1996

So let's start this discussion with the 1995 and 1996 Hurricane Seasons that were both extremely busy, yet different in many ways. Links are below and most of the images here are from Wikipedia. They look very similar when you click on the images and notice how busy the Atlantic was all the way from Africa to a traffic jam as the tracks approach the East Coast and the Caribbean. But when you look close up at the many tracks you see 1995 drew pretty hearts off the coast of the Carolinas and then curved gracefully away, whereas storm chasers practically took up residence in Wilmington, North Carolina the following year in 1996 as hurricane after hurricane took aim on that part of the coastline. Tell someone in Wilmington or Morehead North Carolina that 1995 and 1996 were the same and they will tell you the many ways that 1996 was way worst and 1995 was busy but not the same. Those in Florida, especially the Big Bend area, will tell you 1995 was way worse than 1996. The details are about the locations, the intensity, the multiple hits as Hurricane Seasons play out in real time. 

1995 ... hearts and landfalls.

Now we look at 1996 below.
Lots of landfalls along the NC coastline.

I was online in 1996 often and watched as one hurricane after another passed Miami by and stayed away from Florida drawing beelines to the same spot in North Carolina on my old school hurricane tracking maps. In those days I often chased storms in the South Florida area, my time being limited by being a young mother and money was short and time was an even more valuable commodity than money so 1996 for a Miami girl was more of "that happened" more than "oh my gosh we got hit nonstop" the way we did years later in 2004 and 2005. Now, 2005 was very similar to 2004 but 2004 slammed Florida so often the jokes were endless, yet 2005 brought the eye of hurricanes right over my house where we gathered in the big circular driveway in lawn chairs enjoying the moment of calm, blue sky and being in the eye. Again it's all perspective in retrospect; both 2004 and 2005 were busy, landmark hurricanes but as different as 1995 and 1996. A good link at the bottom to read on the 2004 Hurricane Season.

So beware reading too much into early discussion that does have value, but remember how fast things can change. My husband showed me in the newspaper the other day (yes he still reads the paper) that on this date in 2020 the Chinese government felt there was little danger of transmission of the disease from animals to human... I believe it said "low" chance but then everything changed.  Not a political comment here, a historical one as it was one year ago and the world changed. Hurricane Seasons can change based on many reasons be it early in the season, mid season or in the end. The El Nino of all El Ninos came on FAST in 1997 and all the predictions for a busy season evaporated like a puddle on the pavement in Phoenix when it's 105 degrees outside. A strong volcano in the Caribbean can be a game changer in some ways, and yes that has happened also. Stuff happens.... 

The pattern is there......
How the pattern varies makes all the difference regarding landfalls.
Are we in La Nina still or flipping to Neutral and where will we be in August 2021?
Yes, the water may be cool somewhere but it will warm up in August when it needs to be hot.
And the list goes on and on....

Both 1995 and 1996 began early and ended late, but there were differences and those are the differences that matter not merely saying "they were both very busy seasons" because Bertha looked like it was gonna take aim at South Florida and then it ran off towards North Carolina, the first of several landfalls that made 1996 an epic year to remember in Hurricane History for North Carolina. And here I am now in North Carolina and Wilmington is one of my places to run off to and hang out in during the summer or any time of year. Go figure.

So stick around, we have a lot more winter to go before we really need to talk about the Hurricane Season of 2021. In South Florida they have had many cool days and fronts that made it all the way down into the Florida Keys they are really enjoying this winter as some winters pass them by completely. Those suffering from the 2020 Hurricane Season are still suffering, unless they are independently wealthy and even then waiting for work to continue rebuilding their lives torn apart by 2020. In New York people are leaving in large numbers (not a political comment, parts of my family are in Miami Real Estate that's popping hot like biscuits just out of the oven waiting for butter) but will they keep streaming to Florida if it gets slammed by hurricanes ? And those leaving California for Texas could pack up and go back to the land of regulations and earthquakes if Texas gets slammed by hurricanes this summer and fall. So many variables.... so stay tuned.

Personally I love Winter Weather and I love North Carolina in the winter. I'm looking forward to spending many summer days in South Florida and hopefully the Plague will ease up enough for me to feel comfortable traveling again!  But seriously look at that sky from Raleigh yesterday above and know the air was crisp and clean and it was a beautiful "winter" day in Raleigh where real winter weather rarely happens but there's a chance............ a the end of the month as we cruise into February. I'll talk more about that chance later this week - - - if the models keep delivering promises.

Til then I'll be on and off and I am still on Twitter though my communicating apps now include Signal and Telegram as well as Whatsapp and I'm on Instagram doing ramdom stuff enjoying my "off season" while I wait and pray for snow to fall during the daytime for several hours  :)

Sweet Tropical Dreams 
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram 

Ps... To everything there is a season, enjoy the fruits and vegetables of that season as well as the fashion of boots in January and Flip Flops in July and Lattes when it's hot and Frappes when it's cold though it has to be really hot for me to have a Latte ... just saying. Pistachio Frappes are oh my goodness! Links below for the 1995 and 1996 Hurricane Seasons, similar but different. You can Google 1995, 1996, 2005 and 2005 Hurricane Seasons yourselves and see how similar and how different they were in their own unique way. And while there check out 1953, 1954 and 1955... similar but different, as always.

Good song. Oldie but goldie.
The message remains true in 2021!
Some things never change ;)

Monday, January 04, 2021

First Week of 2021! Whispers of Snow & Winter Weather in the Forecast (maybe) BUT in Louisiana the Debris Remains from the 2020 Hurricane Season


I love the wide far away view of the world.
Look at those storms in the Pacific.
The swirls off the East Coast.

For a good while of my life I was a librarian and I was trained to first research wide, then go narrow, then go wide again until you find what you are looking for...  Yes, I know men fantasize about librarians.... I've heard it many times before trust me, but it was really a dream job for me that even I would not have conjured up as a fantasy. My degrees are in loftier things and libraries seemed great places to sit and read in the aisles with your best friend when young or flirt with a cute boy you were doing a project with but as a job? Yeah, it was great and so much time to research and read and play along with helping others find things they need.  I need winter weather so I sit here waiting, wondering and wishing on winter weather. What do you wish for?

It looks wintry.
It feels wintry.
But not seeing any winter weather yet......
...but I'm waiting

Monday Morning, first week of the New Year. 2021 unless you haven't heard, 2020 is in the rear view mirror and we drive fast hoping it doesn't try to gain on us.  People in the Carolinas are wondering on their iffy chances of seeing winter weather of any kind later this week. The Euro shows we have a chance, the GFS oddly puts a "snow shield" around Raleigh but shows some snow falling nearby. The NWS has actually put it in their discussion, shown below, and for me I just go about life as if it's not there until we are three days out and I can see snow in the NAM. That said, I did look at the models and read the NWS forecast discussion. 

All from shown below.

Wow there's possibilities there.

Different days, different models.
Time will tell.
That's how we do it in the Carolinas.
But the chatter is everywhere.

Dressers, cribs all piled high in the street ....
...still waiting for normal after the hurricanes of 2020.

But you know as much as 2020 is in my rear view mirror, in Louisiana that keeps getting dumped on by Mother Nature with one storm system after another is still trying to dig out from under the depths of debris piled high along the streets that have yet to be removed and every day reminds them they were Ground Zero for the 2020 Hurricane Season. Mike, from Spaghetti Models, went to Louisiana recently and drove through areas that look as if time as past them by.

After Hurricane Andrew my block looked like that on Miami Beach until the last week in October, when the trucks came and finally took it away. Understand it was a moldy, mess of layers of tree trimmings and furniture that OTHERS dropped off and piled on top of other things others left so that the sidewalk had a barricade behind it and you could not see the street or the homes across the street. All I wanted was "normal" and to be honest it was probably the beginning of my search for "normal" in odd ways and yes I lived in Miami Beach and the powers that be needed it cleaned up before the tourist season. But there is no "tourist season" on the back roads of Louisiana and the Lord only knows how long it will sit waiting for a system that is overwhelmed by multiple hurricanes and exhausted by Covid so I'm pretty sure for many in that ravaged area it will continue to look like 2020 for a long time.

If you know of charities that are reliable in those areas impacted please give to them as they need more than most of us and as always the Red Cross is a reliable "generic" place to give

Have a great day, a good week and a very healthy, happy 2021!

Mine will be more wonderful if I actually see snow falling out that window in the daytime! But, waking up to snow on the ground would also be acceptable! Daytime snow is preferrable!

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter (mostly weather) on Instagram weather and whatever........

Ps ... Mike talks on "snow chances" and his recent trip to one of my favorite places.. New Orleans.
The beauty of YouTube is you can catch stuff whenever you want no matter what you are doing! Hope that works, if not try here

Friday, January 01, 2021

2021 is here! Pacific Low Pressure Storms That Look Like Hurricanes Edge Closer to the NW Coast. Alaska Low Pressure Records Set. What Starts in the Pacific... Doesn't Stay in the Pacific! Maybe January 10th or so... Real Winter Storms in Our Part of the World.


No that's not the tropics.
But check out those Lows.
Cyclone like weather systems.
Swirling towards Alaska...
... Canada and Washington State!

New Low Pressure Record set!

Wonder where that system ends up???
I've been watching it for a while.
It's true Weather Porn.
Being honest.

Listen when you are watching for hurricanes to form and travel towards the East Coast, Gulf Coast, the Caribbean and North Carolina, you don't watch your backyard pond you watch Africa, the Atlantic and the Caribbean. When watching for winter systems you crank your head around and watch what's coming in from the Pacific and then hope that something begins to descend down from the Polar region...   and that's why we are all watching this Alaskan system. That and it's an awesome, beautiful wound up low pressure system. You don't see that every day and as it's January 1st, 2021 I wonder if that means January may be a lot stormier and possibly colder than December has been in most places. It's raining in Raleigh and trust me I'm not wearing boots today.  

Closer to home it snowed.
Well kind of the middle of the country...
...give or take. 
Oklahoma City had snow.
It's not making it to Raleigh...
...but there's plenty more Winter left.

That's my first Tweet this morning above....
My first Instagram done half asleep down below!

Ya, Dabuh is watching it too.

So let's move on to a new year and personally I'm thinking around January 10th or so... Winter Storms should ramp up and parts of the South and South East, along with the Mid Atlantic may see real Winter Weather ... with possible various forms of frozen precipitation which actually is how I prefer my precipitation.

The real reason for posting today is to say "hello" and wish all of you the weather you love most in 2021 and the health to enjoy it and much happiness.

Keep watching, enjoy the foods and flavors of New Years Day. I'm making brisket and collards and black eyed peas with some rice thrown in there somewhere... a huge sweet potato I've been saving because it's gigantic and it needs a special occasion.

Much love...
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram... thanks for reading and following me and interacting with me and the rest of us on Twitter!

Ps Enjoy the swirly, wildly beautiful show from Seattle when the countdown hit zero while I was sleeping on the East Coast but my brother in Greece sent it to me this morning. Amazingly wonderful world we live in these days in many ways!