Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Saturday, October 31, 2020

UPDATED: ETA Forms From TD 29 Halloween... On a Blue Moon ....Is it Going W into Central America or Head North At Some Point and GO BOO!



Cone the same.

Forecast to be a Hurricane.
Discussion explains the ridge building in...
...that moves it towards Central America.
I want to see some more models before ...
...we see the end game.

Cone, contrast.
The same for now.

Below is from earlier this evening.

TD 29 Forms in the Caribbean.
Short term forecast logical.
Long term more questionable.
It could dip down into Central America...
It could bounce out of Central America

Dressed as Woody Woodpecker for Halloween!

I feel like we came up short.
It would have been cool to have TD 31
on October 31st.
Alas we will make do with TD29
Zeta down the road.

Models diverge a bit.

A few models get away from the pack.
That's a concern.
History has had many November Canes do that.

Generally low confidence.
The NHC seems unsure.
But they leave the door wide open.

Hey, it's a start.
We all have to start somewhere.

Dabuh weighs in here.
Presents a Jack-O-Lantern for Halloween.
Goes BOO!!

How bout we all enjoy tonight.
The Full Moon Weekend.
Blue Moon... 

Sweet Tropical Dreams...
..or whatever dreams you'd like.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Friday, October 30, 2020

Invest 96L Forecast to Be Tropical Storm ETA in the Caribbean. Let's Hope it Stays in the Caribbean


Really short on time today.
Just a crazy, busy day.
And not much to say...
...until it actually forms.
And we see where formation is...
...then run the next model runs.

Currently forecast to crash into Central America.

BUT.. many ensemble members show it...
...dipping and bouncing back North again.
Or it could go into the Pacific.

Earlier models had different solutions.
Again depends where it forms.
How far South does it stay...
...away from Cold Fronts that lift it up.
But it is forecast to be a depression soon.
Then comes Tropical Storm ETA

I'll update Saturday Night.
I'm not sold personally on the models.
Something seems off and it's better to wait.
Enjoy the weekend without any tropical drama.

Let's hope what forms in the Caribbean...
...stays in the Caribbean.
Otherwise it's bigger trouble.
Pray for weak, westbound at this point.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Thursday, October 29, 2020

Updated 70% RED AREA in the CARIB Invest 96L - Zeta Moving Forward Speed 39 MPH .. 60 MPH Winds Still.The Morning After Zeta Makes Landfall in Louisiana and Mississippi Zeta is in Carolinas With Wind Warnings Here.

Zeta Not Tropical Anymore.
Red Area in the Carib 70% in the 5 day.
Yes, the season is not over.

You can see the cloud swirl associated with Zeta.
And the tropical wave moving westbound.
Into the area where a new storm will form.

Introducing Invest 96L 
We will look at models Friday Morning
Then a long arduous week of watching, waiting.
Debating where exactly it will go.

Both the EURO and the GFS see the system.
Both see a storm "here"
EURO is weaker, takes it more West.
GFS keeps it stronger, further East.
Saturday, 8 days from now.

Wind layers below... 
...that's concerning.
Especially for Cuba and Florida.

The EURO takes it West...
...towards Central America and weaker.

Time will tell which is right.
It's more than a week out here....
... but we could have a hurricane a week from now.
And it may move more towards Florida than Louisiana.
I wouldn't bet on it but...

For sure an issue for Jamaica and Cuba to watch.
A bit more iffy for Florida and the Florida Keys.

Too soon to tell.

That's not a black and white picture.
That's full color.
It was very dark and windy.
You can see winter is on it's way.
I like winter so that's okay.

By sunset, the sun was out and it was blue skies.

I have to tell you I had a really wonderful time today out staring at the sky, layers upon layers of gray streamers streaming across the sky as if they were on their way towards a battle somewhere. Like cloudy troops marching into battle. Wild wind, really the strongest "winds" I think I've seen up here since Matthew. ISAIAS was more a wild cloud event and briefly windy, this was several hours of gusts and around Noon we had guts near 50 MPH and I mean long, tugging at you watching people have problems trying to stand upright. A forceful wind, stronger than I expected. Awnings flapping, trees violently dancing and things went flying in the wind. Some trees were down here, though most of the downed trees were way West of Raleigh, oaks fell on trailers and homes and power went out in many places. Will see tomorrow how much color is left on the trees but it's early color for Raleigh so there should be more than further Up North where color is peaking and probably gone with the wind in a lot of places. Sometimes you need to take the time to wander around and be in the weather, feel the wind and stare at the Fall Color both on the trees and flying caught in the tropical breeze. 

What can you say about a storm that 24 hours ago was down near Louisiana and is now off the East Coast? Some odd mix of a hurricane gone derecho and one more moving faster than even it's winds were blowing. I understand having one such storm in a season but two this far apart? And, what will the next storm be like? As for me if the front barrels through tonight as expected I'll be thrilled as it was hot, swampy and tropical today and not in a good tropical way. 

Several people died in this storm, the number goes up and down and once I saw five people died then they lowered it and then put it back up again. Tomorrow the number should be reliable and the power crews are working hard to get power back up, it's not an easy job.

So stay tuned to see where ETA forms and know that it's also possible something forms at the tail end of a front off the East Coast later this week, it's that time of year where trouble can pop up everywhere.  I needed to rest today when I got home as I was seriously wind blown and I love the wind but allergy season and windy days don't agree with me but wow it was so worth going out. The first freeze and frost help me a lot and they may be a week away at this point. 

From earlier today, please read if you have not done so and thanks for reading my blog, my online weather diary.

Song for tonight would definitely be a classic... 

* * *

Moving at 39 MPH forward speed.
It's basically moving as fast as...
..tropical storm force wind.
Think about it!

More important than the Cone.
The map from the NWS

That's a huge area now feeling impacts from Zeta.

Impacts being trees down, power outages.

Think Global but Act Local.
See how windy it really gets.
Probably going to rip our fall colors away.

My absolute favorite pic from Zeta.
Mike, only Mike would do this.

You wondered what Mike would add to the show.
Being Mike.
It's important in life to "be you"
No one else is YOU.

As for Reed he looks like he had fun.
Recorded and collected data.
Reed helped me with something once.
He's a good guy.

As for Zeta.  What can I say.
It was making landfall at sunset. it's in the Carolinas at sunrsise.
How cray cray is that?

Barely 18 hours later after that picture.

And Josh got to chase from his front porch.
Amazing end to his Summer in Mississippi.

Epic Hollywood ending.

BUT....hate to tell you but
Hurricane Season 2020 NOT over.

My thoughts below.
Any typos sorry... 
...going out.
Will edit later.
And update later. 

Short post this morning, because to be honest I was up late following Zeta and friends chasing and I've been outside a bit following the weather here locally as Zeta is a fast moving crazy storm moving NE at 39 MPH with 60 MPH winds. That's a meteorological math problem that creates a stronger punch than just the storm alone and how wild is it that a tropical storm is moving at almost tropical storm force wind speed. Think about it.

The damage reports are coming in, power is out and at least two possibly three deaths have been confirmed so far and others are missing. Hopefully not all who are missing are death just sleeping it off somewhere and without cell phone service. The financial hit from Zeta will be huge. New Orleans survived, of course, but power it out and it raced through faster than the train the City of New Orleans and clean up will take a while. The hard hit beach areas and pool level of hotels and casinos will be muddy and messy and Zeta will be a employment producer as insurance cat adjusters and construction crews crawl into the area from every direction as everyone tries to put life back together again. It is worth noting this could mess up election issues in some areas but we don't need to go down that road right now.

As for me I'm going out and about to see the stronger winds that should come through Raleigh in a bit, before the second punch of cold wind comes through tonight. Again we had a Isaias sort of storm earlier in the season and this is a similar set up as the front ran away with the storm.

The next storm could form in the Caribbean or possibly off the SE coast as the next strong front goes flat leaving behind an area that could develop into something. Time will tell.

I'll update later this afternoon, I want to be out and about right now and see what Raleigh sees.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Wednesday, October 28, 2020

Updated 6 PM - Landfall Terrebone Parish Louisiana - Strengthening 110 MPH Hurricane Zeta Speeding Towards Landfall - Louisiana Mississippi - New Orleans and Inland Alabama Georgia Etc... Fast Moving Weather

110 MPH Hurricane.

COCODRIE Louisiana.
Where is that you ask?
Terrebone Parish 

Mostly a fishing village.
That's New Orleans to it's NNE/NE
New Orleans is getting strong winds now.
Looks beautiful.
I love New Orleans... seeing it makes me smile.
But this will be way omre than they usually get.

I'll be back as events unfold.
Or blow away.. 
Just being honest.
Real hurricane here.

As for Josh @icyclone he's "home"
In Bay St. Louis 

Buildings at the water's edge.
Follow him on @icyclone Twitter and Facebook.
He writes longer on Facebook, obviously.

Mike on the road...

As the sun sets on New Orleans...
...and Zeta.

Back soon.

Canal Street in New Orleans ...
...the wind is howling.

Still 110 MPH at 5 PM.
Advisory package slow coming out...

110 MPH 
Upped while I was making the video.
Can we get to 115?
I'm beginning to feel like this is an auction.
Why the NHC went down in intensity?
I don't know... but it's upsetting.
Because long term planning needs to rely on it.
And many thought this would be maybe 75 MPH
Now it's 110 MPH.

Preparation for 115 MPH is way different...
...then 75 MPH.

How many might have left?
A lot of questions.
Fast moving so hopefully that's good
Though the fast forward speed adds intensity.

Mike is there riding around.
Hope he's got lots of gas in that tank.
Beautiful part of the world.
Low lying.

Clouds streaming in....
.... one of the prettier rides I ever took.

Glad Mike went chasing.
One thing I know about Mike......
...he knows how to chase a Cane ;)
Don't ask me how I know..

Look at that solid core and eye.

I'll update when NHC does...
...or as it makes landfall.

From earlier.
From Zeta 100 MPH Intensifying!

What a difference an hour makes with this storm.

Wind history shown below.

Gotta give credit to Rob from Crown Weather.

I got the email below as I was leaving the store.

Note Rob had been bullish on it being a Cat 2.

Yeah I went to the grocery store.
Not for very long.
Got back and BAMN!
Despite the NHC lowering intensity forecast.
Zeta did it's thing and is not 100 MPH
And an EYE popped out.
As in "oh my gosh what a big eye you have!!!"

Dramatically so below.
You can't underestimate hurricanes.
Why they went down in their forecast...
... I'm not sure.
Similar up/down/up dance we had before this year.
Anyway just reporting the facts.
The earlier forecast verified.

And it can strengthen a bit more.
Cat 2 is definitely a thing.
As is the threat of tornadoes I've mentioned

From Noon today.
Compare and contrast

2 Hour earlier below.

Another hurricane without an eye.
Without a defined eye.
What's up with that?
2020 thing?

90 MPH moving N at 18 PM

11 AM Intensity forecast lower at landfall.
No longer expecting 100 MPH

As Chick says ...rare to see TS warnings for Atlanta.
Zeta isn't your Momma's October Hurricane.

"Should maintain hurricane strength thru landfall"

Storm surge for the area that knows...
...what's coming.
Been dealing with this all hurricane season.
Louisiana to Alabama.

Alabama to West Florida Panhandle...
... can expect Tropical Storm Force Winds.

Mississippi Valley and East Coast... 
Appalachian Mountains a concern.

Mostly updated from earlier.
Nothing new to see.

Same Cone.

Updating with my thoughts later today.
And any new news.
stay tuned...

Check out that core catching the sunrise

As the sun comes up. Zeta speeds up.

Part of the clouds are already out ahead of it.
Cloaked in the distant outflow.
Solid core at it's center.

No noticeable eye but maybe later today.
NHC forecasts it to be 100 MPH 

Moving N at 17 MPH
Speeding up.
Needs to slow down to .. up to it's expectations.

Then curves wildly to the NE
Love this map it shows the cities... the path of Zeta and weather.

and now for Phil.
Our keeper of Hurricane Records.

I'll be updating throughout the day.
As we narrow down impacts and watch in real time.
Everyone in it's path needs to heed caution.
Take control of the situation as best they can.'
Prepare for outages, trees down.
Some localized flooding.
Tornadoes in it's bands.
And up the way wild windy weather..
All across the USA

Be back after the 11 AM Advisory package.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram