Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Bobbi Storm on Models, Life and the Difference between Men and Women..

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Another view of "Juno" departing..

There's so much I could say about this snow storm that was forecast the majority of the A Team Weather Models to be one of those storms of a century and yet... it was just another New England Snow Storm. New England, predictably with or without the models, is getting a big snow storm. New York City was predictably on the edge of it and barely in it. The further west you go on Long Island the deeper the snow...

This is a typical pattern for something called:  WINTER

As I said days ago it would be just as easy to see "JUNO" (rolling eyes on naming a winter storm Juno..or even naming a winter storm......) going right with a track much like Hurricane Arthur.

Truth is I thought it would do exactly what it did and go right... but that was my gut based on weather knowledge learned from great meteorologists and a feel for the water vapor loop. I couldn't see how it could hook in that much with so much energy pulling to the right away from the storm. Eastern Long Island into Cape Cod was pretty obvious if you just judged it in real time by the satellites not the models.

As for whole model discussion the updated GFS model performed pretty well all in all and that's good. They have tried hard to upgrade that model and whatever tweaking they did may be working. The new GFS argued that the EURO was too much too soon too west...

People complain about the discussion on the models. It's human nature. Okay, maybe it's male human nature as I have yet to see women doing a shoot out between Estee Lauder vs Elizabeth Arden.

I'll be honest it's a guy thing I think. Ever have children, babysit children or teach pre-school. Little boys like to show who can ... project faster longer.  Girls stand there looking confused while boys giggle while teachers run to the little show off boys who are doing a ... little boy version of a spitting contest. OH BAMN... another thing boys do that girls rarely do. The teachers put the little show offs in their perspective time outs and one smiles like he won the Olympics.. obviously the winner.

Girls compete, but in different sneaky ways... less obvious.

So... I think it's just normal as most weather people are men (something that is changing) that they will compare their favorite ... model.

The EURO has been the best for a while, the favorite kid on the block or in this case the globe. It's great at predicting long range the development of weather systems. This works wonderful in tropical meteorology as hurricanes sometimes form from distant, weak tropical waves on the other side of the world. The EURO is the best TOOL we have had in predicting when one weak wave will go further than all the others, wrap and develop into a formidable tropical cyclone. American snow storms that form in real time off the Outer Banks and travel in less than one day to Long Island are a hard weather system to predict that far out.  We can see the pattern and the possibilities but unless it hooks up just right with the tropical moisture and depending on where the jet is at any given moment can mean the difference between New York City getting slammed or predictably being on the edge of a snow storm that slips away wide right towards Nantucket. Connecticut always wins the snow lotto in this case... as does Boston. Maine... well it's ... Maine for a reason.

It's really all about the money honey and until NOAA gets the money it needs to upgrade it's models, research to refine forecasting we will lag behind the other models sadly.  We do make up for what we lack with incredible forecasters. But, it today's world of every model and satellite image being available to every kid in middle school who can write great discussion in 140 characters or a 7 second Vine Video who can second guess the experts cause... he or she saw the EURO model predict the end of the world.  

Bottom Line: No forecaster wants to go against the EURO and discount it. Some imply and suggest and favor the possibility that the GFS or NAM is doing a good job, but they don't want to tell the Emperor he's not wearing any clothes....

The Euro is a long term tool that works really well for hurricane forecasters to see which wave will form into a viable hurricane. It sees patterns with 4 D X-ray vision that is often clearer and better defined than the GFS. But, that will eventually change. Once upon a time Bryan Norcross argued he didn't trust the prediction that Hurricane Andrew would miss the trof based on the bright, shiny new Aviation Model.  No one uses that model these days for any real forecasting problem...

The one constant in life is change.

One day we will look back at the Euro and GFS and laugh...

The upgraded GFS really just worked out a few of it's many kinks. Only time will tell.

As I said yesterday there are weather models for every taste and type of forecaster as there are Kardashian siblings and half siblings to go around. Why do I talk on them? I'm from Miami, lived on South Beach and have brunette bombshell daughters with all the curves, brains and wit of anyone on TV doing their thing. Going to the store with them together is sort of scary... people in line watch especially men who are supposed to be watching their own small children in strollers. I want to say "hey, yeah they are cute... but your kid is drooling . . ." but men are men and oh don't most of us women love that men are men. Well, I do... again women are sneaky while men are comparing their.. weather models ;)

Many people watch the Kardashians and mostly women. I guess they are sneakily trying to watch and learn.......and I keep trying to understand why other than the obvious. Why did some boys like Veronica and why did others like Betty? Comparing and contrasting is the way of the world for both men and women...

So let's say the new upgraded GFS might just be Kylie Kardashdian ... taking some of her sister's talents and refining it to her own style.

No not going to post a pic of my girls as they'd be annoyed and we don't do that... 

So, I'll post of pic of my granddaughter Bella... who asks her Mommy to put what she calls "Bubby's perfume" on her pony tail before leaving for school so it will smell good.  Smart, savvy girls start out young and yet there are no shoot outs for "Love Secret" VS "Pure Seduction"  you know why? We know they BOTH work ;)  Bella lives in a world where she can be whatever she wants.. even a meteorologist. Her father could have been one, he knows his stuff but he also knows it doesn't pay well. So... he went into computer engineering.  We need to pay our meteorologists more money and we need more money put into computer modeling for weather forecasting. If we did there would be more women meteorologists who are studying medicine, law and other jobs that pay more money honey... THAT is the BOTTOM LINE!

As for the Mayor shutting down NYC to be safe rather than sorry?

No problem with that.. because that's the way we do it for hurricanes.

When every weather model shows a big hit on a busy metropolitan area... be it snow or a hurricane.. 

You err on the side of public safety and are better safe than sorry.

That said.. I don't like Pure Seduction since they took the plum out so my perfume of choice is now:

Besos Bobbi

Ps... I'm going shopping...taking a break from the TWC ;) and CNN and JUNO>...

(Why would anyone name a winter storm Juno rather than Janus?" 


Monday, January 26, 2015

How Much Snow Did We Get? It's Not Over Til It's Over... We Will KNOW if it WAS HISTORIC... only in the rear view mirror..

Nowhere in NYC looks more beautiful in snow than Crown Heights and parts of Brooklyn. The snow against the brown stones... Eastern Parkway, Ocean Parkway... stunning always.

Note the snow in these pictures is from this morning's snow before the blizzard began.

The irony of this storm, historic or otherwise, is that it won't ramp up until the most avid follower of TWC falls asleep........

I would say "if a tree falls in a blizzard will anyone notice if they are hunkered down inside??" except you will know when you wake up tomorrow morning and are either snowed in or annoyed it was much to do about nothing.

Easy to laugh this off and say the storm fell apart. The stronger energy part went out to sea and the rest of it is hauling ... winter weather towards Cape Cod and Boston and beyond.You can see in the image the two parts that look a lot like several wayward hurricanes from 2014..

As I blow this while waiting for the next model run to come out... I'm watching the WV Loop.

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You can see the storm winding up, the cold weather coming down the backside.
The snow bands about to move towards New York City... and Long Island.

The NWS for New York City says this about that...

There is discussion that the storm will move slower than forecast by some models and..
it "persistent banding may stall along the NYC & Hudson River"

That is a "may" with a "should" thrown in there...however...

The NWS has the final call & we need to heed the call.
Stay home, hunker down and see what daylight brings.
Unless you are a hardcore weather person you will will be reading this in the morning.. 

You cannot call a storm HISTORIC until AFTER it has made HISTORY.

It is historic in that the subways and streets of NY are closed...

This is what "Juno" looks like............

That's a massive system. 

Put it in motion...

Take a minute... and let that animation wash over you and see what is happening in real time.

One part is moving away, there is a LARGE expansive wind field and it's hooking in to Cape Cod.

New York WILL get snow.... yes but historic I don't think so.

I can be wrong. I'm a hurricane girl more than a snow girl.. but I can read a water vapor loop!

Radar Loop:

Maybe it's hype and maybe it's not.

When you have 28 Million People under a Blizzard Warning...THAT IS HISTORIC

Right now all eyes are all Nantucket that has had winds in the 70 mph range.

Nantucket has sustained winds in 40s and gusts into 60s and 70s.

Twitter feed is ablaze this evening making fun of low snow totals in NYC
(NWS says it will snow stronger overnight & be white out conditions in AM...)

Parts of CT are currently getting 4 inches per hour in a strong band.

It's all a matter of perspective.

From my daughter's deck... drifting snow. 
3 feet in one part, inches in another...

If you are under a band of snow... it's snowing heavy.
If the wind picks up and blows it about... you're impressed.

We can Monday Morning Quarterback on Tuesday Morning...
The snow totals... may be deflated.........

Hey they keep saying it not me... the Patriots caught their plane out of Dodge..

As always the most beautiful view is the global view looking down on Planet Earth.. any season...

Stay tuned...


Ps...sweet tropical dreams...........if you can dream tropical tonight.

History Repeats. 1888 Great White Hurricane. Traffic Problems AGAIN Today in NYC

Port Authority Bus Terminal. Earlier. Worse now.

You see when you tell people to go to work and "leave early" and they DO and they get stuck for over 2 hours trying to get a bus back to where they are going... it's just plain stupid.

I'm sorry but in Florida the place shuts down for a day before a storm. 
That's just the breaks... the way it works.
Mother Nature wins one...

It took my son a good 20 minutes if not a half an hour to pick up his son a few blocks from his house.
Eastern Parkway was not moving ...nor were the streets going in and out.

And, oh by the way everyone in Brooklyn I know is texting me WHY he said "all the streets have been plowed" when many streets in Brooklyn have not seen plows. Maybe he meant NYC?

Anyway.... history repeats and this is recent history. 
If you want people home safe be it in Atlanta or NYC keep them home the day the storm is starting.

Finally this blizzard has started to wrap and wind out off the coast of Carolina...
And trucking fast towards the Garden State Freeway... NYC and Boston

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As for the 1888 Blizzard also known as the White Hurricane people should know it is responsible or the NY Subway System. Yes, if you are reading this trying to get to a train.. know it was because of how poorly the El Trains worked in New York City and Brooklyn in the 1888 blizzard. Granted you don't get blizzards with 50 and 60 foot snow drifts in Brooklyn often, especially in March, but it was enough to push through the idea of a subway system.

It was easiser to walk on the rails than to try and take a train.. 

Snow drifts were smaller than most of the children posing for pictures. 
This was of course after the storm... 

The East River was frozen over. It's said some people walked across the river from NYC to Brklyn..
The elevated trains came to a complete standstill. 
In 1894 they put through a plan for a subway system.
On October 27, 1904 the first subway began service.

Currently in New York it looks like this on one street....

Keep in mind the LOW is still forming down by the Carolinas..........

This "system" is forming slowly and going to move slowly at this rate.
Looks like the EURO might have beat the GFS... 

Doesn't matter which model wins ... it matters the impacts & timing for cities in it's path.

It matters that people, including my daughter, are trying to get back to where they are supposed to "shelter in place"  . . . 

Today BEFORE the blizzard hits......

What will tomorrow bring?

What will the streets of New York look like tomorrow morning?

I can't say for sure but.... I know people who are left work at 3 and 4 and are stuck trying to get home.

History repeats.

2014....  LAST YEAR.


Watch for far the bridge is open. 
Hopefully, my daughter will get across... 

Hopefully everyone will stay safe.. 

History always repeats. 
We need to learn from history.

We need to stop telling people to go out and get home early...
When the person doing the telling is not commuting long distances himself.. 

Good luck... 

I'll update later this evening.

Besos Bobbi

Ps... Look at the amount of MOISTURE that is feeding this blizzard...

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Which Model Wins? Kardashian Explanation of the GFS & EURO Problem. Hurricane Force Winds Forecast for NY to BOS Metro

53 Million People being told to prepare. There is one for sure here in this set up.  Some one, some where is going to be annoyed and yell "over hype" and others aren't going to know what hits them until it does...

Where's the storm now?

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Just about to push off of NC and form off the Outer Banks & ZOOM up to NY & BOSTON Metro.


Keep watching this in real time:

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Currently in Brooklyn it's snowing.......pre-storm snow maybe but snow..

(note there is 100% chance of snow thru Tuesday...)

Fly in the ointment is it has already started to snow... and some of the snow is blowing around.

This snow is NOT from the real blizzard but it's already piling up in Brooklyn...

A friend in Jersey where it's snowing heavy is taking his "public transportation" into work.. 

He posted this with the caption "Here goes nothing"

The big problem here is that no weather person wants to stake their fame on one weather model.

And, as always there is a shoot out going on between the GFS and the EURO.
IF the storm goes right & GFS wins and NY gets less than expected he wins.
If the storm stays on track and the EURO model wins NYC loses....

I'm going to pass along my explanation to a friend that may help you understand the problem.

Let's say that the EURO is Kim Kardashian. 

She boasts 28 Million followers and counting... 

Then there is her sister Khloe who people love to watch as well ...  12.4 Million followers.

KHLOE is the GFS Model
Every one watches KIM... but they also keep their eye on Khloe.

I hope this clears up the problem the weather people one wants to discount the GFS.

No one wants to make a FORECAST on their OWN without the models... 
.... but there are 2 models everyone watches the most..

And then..............there's the NAM...  we watch but... not the EURO

See.... this is the problem. Conflicting info all good... worth watching ;)

So now I hope you understand the weather models better... just think Kardashian sisters.

Don't think too hard as you need to prepare for #JUNO  

Something to remember and keep in mind while obsessing on why school is open today in New York but the Mayor wants everyone to stay out of the parks and off the streets... go in early, leave early.

Now that we've addressed the models let's get back to the social impacts of this storm:

NYC is on the southern edge of the concern zone for the storm that has not yet formed. The snow you are getting now is a pre-game sort of event. Like a tailgate party that no one is going to.. School in Philly is canceled today at Noon.  NYC has school today...apparently they don't want to cancel any of the regent exams scheduled for today ??? ???  and the wording oddly says "expected storm" vs "predicted storm" or "forecasted storm" with wording that would lead way too many to believe it's not a done deal until it really happens.  NYC Schools not showing the models or the weather people much faith or love here.

If you have a problem with this feel free to let the Mayor's office know how you feel:

Remember keep it to under 300 words. 

The reason I am posting this is because so many of my friends in NYC are at a loss for words.

If you find some words, send them to the Mayor. 

NOTE... they did suspend Alternative Side Parking TODAY.... 

What bothers me here is that the Mayor's office keeps calling it tomorrow's storm...
The storm starts today, this afternoon and this evening. 
That's like saying a hurricane doesn't start until the eye makes landfall..

 What is important to remember is this is a 2 or 3 day event. The early snow is not the actual storm. This is not a hurricane that hits all at once. There is no storm surge. However, IF everyone leaves work at once you will end up with this even if you live up north.

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The above is Atlanta last year.  Every one left at the same time...  SNOW GRID LOCK

Do you really want to be on the Jersey Turnpike  in that sort of traffic jam?

Or worse.... the scene below in Raleigh last year.

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Most people in Raleigh come from UP NORTH... they didn't believe it would snow until it did.
And then...............they ALL hit the road at the same time... 

The good part of the snow falling now in New York (pre-game snow) is it may nudge people to leave before the bigger storm hits late today and tonight.

A simple reminder here that you should get batteries for your old radio in case you lose power..
In case you forgot what they look like... look in the back of your closet, buy batteries.

If you lose power or your signal battery powdered radios still work really well..

Until then you can listen to NASH FM online.. note they are updating on the winter storm!


When they say "shelter in place" they mean "SHELTER IN PLACE"

Hurricane Force Winds are expected. Snow drifts.

Get home... stay home and shelter in place... hunker down...
Stay on top of late breaking changes in your forecast area..

Again...Hurricane Force Winds COULD blow the snow and tides from NY to Boston...

Stay tuned... Stay safe!

Mark Sudduth streaming live

I'll be back later today blogging in real time as events unfold...

Besos Bobbi

Ps... pic of my friend Hesh getting on the bus into NY from NJ...
Check out his music below... he loves to go to the beach during the off season..
Stay off the beach with this storm ... just enjoy the views of it on his video I know I do..

Sunday, January 25, 2015

It's All About the Timing... Where & When Does the Blizzard Hit... Prepare & Hunker Down

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Occurs to me how alike blizzards and hurricanes can be in that they are simply weather systems caught up in the upper air patterns tugged this way and that

Remember Hurricane Arthur from last year?

Of course the track for this storm described as a historic blizzard hooks in somewhere around Eastern Long Island and slams into New England more like the Block Island Hurricane. But, doesn't hook in THAT much. Shows you how no two storms are exactly alike!

We do plot tracks for winter weather but they are more guesstimates than forecasts.

Here's one including a cyclonic loop. 

You all remember how hurricanes loop? Sometimes blizzards do too.

They are both..................CYCLONES!

Mind you if we gave a track like this for a hurricane we'd be out of business.
Using crayons on napkins in bars slurping Hurricanes... 

But as winter weather evolves fast in real time they get away with it.

So where is HASHTAG #JUNO now??   (rolling eyes on name)

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As of now it's somewhere over Tennessee... of course if you read this in the morning ...

You'll see it closer to the Outer Banks over NC .. maybe.

Lovely LSU WV Loop..

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The big question here is on timing.

IF it moves faster and doesn't dig as deep it will end up further to the left aka East.

Drudge is taking this serious... it's a drama... it's news... it has legs.

I'm wondering how Superman never gets too cold too fly in bad weather or Alaska..
...but I digress...

I wish I knew what movie that was but I am NOT asking anyone... 
....aww look a happy ending.......... 

Well we know it's not Love Story

Mayor of New York has told everyone to stay off the streets tomorrow.
OUT OF THE PARKS... Stay home.
If you MUST travel take public transportation (??!??)

But.... school is open so send your first grader to school for a hot meal ???

This will all evolve in real time... if you live in the warning areas, set your alarms tomorrow for earlier than normal and check with your local forecasters, news media sites and the NWS.  

I've said it before with hurricanes but it really relates to blizzard. They evolve in REAL TIME, moment by moment and the slightest change in timing or track early on can be extrapolated later to a dangerous degree..........or as the Mayor says "treacherous" which is of course why I want Johnnie walking to school tomorrow.... as Johnnie has to get home somehow if the storm comes in earlier. Parks closed, schools open. Ummmmm

My bottom line. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Make sure you have:

Flashlights. Batteries for Flashlights... think hard you will remember what they are...
Gas. Oh... some gas stations are already out in Queens and Brooklyn... ouch.
Diapers for kids.
Baby Wipes for everyone... always good to have. 
MEDICINE... inhalers for instance and first aid supplies.. all the things you should have.. 
Things to do to keep you busy inside so you don't get bored and go looking for trouble.
Keep your cell phones fully charged... 

It is just as possible to believe that this system will go wide right and the Metro NYC area will be spared the worst of it. Does happen. Just don't bet the brownstone on it... ya hear?

I like this image... shows me getting some snow. Hmnn that's interesting.. 

Jet Stream:

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Watch that moisture due to feed into this system aka blizzard...aka Cyclone

IF the cyclone moves faster it forms in a different spot...changes a lot.

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One last loop..

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Pushing down... going EAST.... more coming down to push it down... 

All a matter of timing...  what a drama...

Are the models right? I mean ...right aka correct... 

(it's a mercury retrograde... can we trust the models?? oh retrograde...hmnnn like a loop...)

Stay tuned. 

I'll be blogging in real time tomorrow so check in often. 

If you know someone traveling the airlines are working their hardest to fix problems before it starts.

Check for AMTRAK

Check in to see if New York City schools have changed their minds...

You can enroll in their don't call us we'll call you system ;)

Hang tough and be prepared... there's another storm behind this one... just so you know.

The always incredible Ryan Mauve is bringing that point home tonight. 
Stay tuned and don't rush off to find the groundhog just yet.

That's right Virginia and North Carolina.. it's not over til it's over.

Newest models doing quirky things... showing snow going lower flirting with NC 

Is it possible the timing is off and the storm is forming faster and therefore going to form... 
not where the models said it would.. which would make it's end point different too?

The models are talking... do you believe them???

Besos Bobbi

Ps you thought I was going to put up All About the Bass didn't you??
With a storm it is about the BASE... the starting point...the timing...