Nothing on NHC Main Page. Tropics Quiet Waiting.... Carolina Coast Maybe Homegrown. Old Wave Visible Running Naked. New Wave off Africa Models Like.

EPAC busy again.

New Wave coming off Africa red & bright!

Fronts sliding aross the top of the USA

Large sprawling big naked wave...

..swirling, lumbering Westbound 

Extra credit Carolina dark red convection.

Almost like a black bloody red color!

Sorry but true...........

As far as the big lumbering wave that is sort of swirling, despite losing it's promise a few days ago it is still easily recognizable and until that "naked swirl" stops swirling it's always worth keeping an eye on it as once past the SAL and if it gets into a favorable area sometimes they spin up fast... especially if the general spin signature is still there. 

What bugs me is it always has a dot at the center.

Not much but on loops flares up.

Stubborn huge Wave.

Running with SAL

Next big wave rolling off Africa and models do seem to like it but they always like the new girl on the block if you've noticed.

This bugs me as a few of the local Mets along the coast have been showing off their wild lightning storms, dark skies with wild cloud formations and heavy rain.  This flares up and it's right where some or at least a few of the models insist something could form along the coast and slide up the coast and eventually out to sea. As we are still in close in season it's worth keeping an eye on it kind of curiously. Low chances but in line with Climo and Homegrown Season!

 

BOOM! 

There are long range models....far out.

Shows all the possibilities.

Lots congregate off Carolinas Coast.

Small chance small yellow circle coming?

Maybe.....

I know the Gulf

Not going there....

Maybe the wave?

Time will tell.

My son was in town with my daughter-in-law on their way to pick up the kids in camp up in the mountains of Georgia and had a good time yesterday. Hot outside for sure but we went to the Art Museum and the Farmers Market. A lot of Ice Cream and many cold drinks were involved. Levi is fun, gives great hugs and yeah he's tall and fun in a chilled easy going way. I do notice he's taking a liking to Charleston lately as a favored vacation spot.

In Raleigh it's supposed to rain for 2 days and then a drop of coolish weather with highs hovering around 81 or 82 and lows in the 60s and yeah it's a tease but I'll take it. Will warm up again but could really, really use a break and open up the windows and enjoy being outside again! Hopefully no more "excessive high heat warnings" for a long while!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather... elsewhere whatever!

Waves Thirsty For Moisture... Quiet Morning in the Atlantic Basin. Tsunami Stealing Headlines. Pacific Got Canes & Tsunami Go Figure

 

Compare and contrast this photo...

..with the one below.

Oh......

Waves struggling.

Thoughts on that below.

The infamous AI models that developed these waves did not develop them until closer to August 1st when they just begin to show their face beyond the pale of the SAL. Can't say if they are right, but either way you have to wait til they get through the shear and past the wind shear. For now... nada...nothing.

Still watching off the coast of Carolinas as a small chance, especially after frontal passage coming up!

Second of all ........this is huge news. State of Florida putting permanent Sales Tax Exemptions on disaster preparedness. This includes some important products used daily living in the tropics. Sales tax on a portable generator is a lot of money $$$  Sunscreen!! Check into it ...it's awesome.

My c button not working fantastic on this laptop. I'll have to clean it. Oh well... happens.

I have family in front out of town so keeping this short. News yesterday was the earthquake and tsunami. Go figure Pacific has hurricanes and tsunamis at the same time. Hmnnn

Oh and 

Have a great day. I'll be back tomorrow. 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

Elsewhere whatever

Tropical Waves Looking Good in MDR Still..... Home Grown Always Possible & the "feature" N of PR is Still There. Goal Now Is For a Wave to Survive. Almost August.

When do we see a yellow circle.

Looks like a healthy wave train to me.

???

Another day another blog. Another day watching more model runs. Another day of Water Loops that are I admit mentally so refreshing. Another day of Iced Coffee because it's so damn hot! Maybe warm coffee next week when the "cooler" air filters in to the Carolinas.

Listening to Mike talk while I think and debate what to say. Maybe I'll just go with the flow and be honest and not try to be so politically correct here.

This is a healthy wave train.

Maybe yellow circle by tonight?

There are some very good, strong tropical waves in the distant Atlantic that have shown a tenacity to hold on despite riding with the worst of the dust, and yet they have little model support by the "reliable models" though they are beginning to notice them. The new AI Models have long range fantasies that may or may not come true. Some of the AI Models did well last year in long range development, sniffing out things it took longer for the EURO or GFS to show and they were fairly good with intensity forecasting. But we are not at a point where we can rely on them and the NHC watches but follows their game plan as always. Ps the NHC is the last to make a change in behavior.

Using Mike screenshots because why not?

EURO beginning to see what A1 was whispering.

Newest run.

Those are Lows. 

Tropical Waves not hurricanes...

....it's a start in the process of change.

Flipping that switch!

I said I was going to go with the flow and write in real time so I am. Sunday on the 3rd of August, the EURO shows the wave near the Islands in a similar place to where the AI had it on the 1st and but AI developed the wave more than the current EURO is showing. Still close in location to the AI. The troffiness :) to the North is in place. It's a similar set up to what the AI model was trying to sell the last few days.

But  EURO doesn't develop it.

Moisture moves into Miami.

Without the circulation AI showed.

Current vorticity below

Oh blob N of PR has a signature now.

Strong healthy signature.

So the biggest question today is do you trust the new AI Models or do you not? Do you trust AI? Do you trust anyone? Trust is such a big problem in today's world. Went to sleep last night at some point, my friend I was talking to on WhatsApp went to sleep, my eyes were getting tired and the presser from NYC didn't tell much actual story behind the story which in truth they never do. They give basic facts. He's dead. And, my thoughts was "I can go look tomorrow, Lord knows there will be a ton of conspiracy theories all over the Internet'  and YouTube channels will have a field day as no one trusts anyone anymore. And, yet they trust people they don't know on YT suggesting their own conspiracy theories or do they just watch for entertainment?  

What entertains you?

Are the AI Models an entertaining phase we are going through when the regular models are "ho hum I don't see nothing?" Strange times we live in. Yet always strangeness. As Dickens said "it was the best of times, the worst of times" always something going on somewhere then and today!

Tropics sort of strange this year. The flow is all weird. The heat is stuck (happens in July) and the Canary Current is on steroids out in the Eastern Atlantic which bugs me more than the seasonal Sal. Either way the story is like this........... it's late July...........soon we flip the calendar to August. Something, somewhere gets a name. Either it'll be "surprise close in home grown" from a front, a feature or a tropical wave that stayed together enough to get close in. Or it'll be some tropical wave that out performs the negative models and possibly verifies the AI Models that said it could happen and scared everyone with a named storm threatening a popular destination.

Tropical waves below the Highs.

Typical.

There's an area off the Carolina Coast.

There's that feature N of PR that's odd.

There's a healthy wave train in MDR.

I think it should get a yellow circle.

But it's not my call.

Have an Iced Coffee! Splurge on Ice Cream and when the cool air filters in you can lose the 5 pounds on a Keto diet of BBQ Brisket and delicious soups that'll be fun to make when it's not 105 degrees outside. Relax, watch and time will pass and some system will get a name and then after August 20th there will suddenly be a change in the tropical wind and we will be talking about hurricanes not features or coastal lows or whether or not a tropical wave will survive.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X ... mostly weather on X ...elsewhere whatever mood I'm in whatever goes.

I do think one of those waves will survive.

There's more juice than SAL down low.

And one has a twist.

We will see... 

If you rather have some quiet music.

My computer suggested this piano melody.

Weather People. African Wave is it The One? Or Coastal Close In Home Grown? Shop Now While You Can. August 4 Days Away!

 

SAL vs The Wave.

Close in - Home Grown 

or African Waves?

In Journalism 101 you learn....

... what's in your neck of the woods.

Is normally the priority.

Unless it's a huge world shaking news event.

Derecheo Dreams in the Mid West

Interesting area off Carolinas if u ask me.

Wild video below posted by Reed Timmer. While we all obsess on A1 Models doing obscene things with  African Waves.... the real story today is the derecheo in the Mid West and it's looking to be a memorable one! Either way the thunderstorm was crazy wild, you can watch for yourself below.

I have a lot to do today so this will be short of maybe say it with songs not sure. Maybe I'll go long. I write in real time and type fast. We are several days away from really seeing what the next 2 waves off Africa can really do that the previous ways could not. August is a few days away. I can feel it in the wind. Fresh Market put out "Mulling Spices" on display as we all long for those late days of Summer transitioning into Fall. But those days also bring wild hurricanes and it really is the part of the hurricane season we call the Mean Season. 

If the waves were going to FL so would I.

So far most ensembles pull North to NC

European AI

WOW that woke me UP!

Just one model....

...wave barely left Africa.

From West to East

1. Yes EPAC is alive again! 

2. Derecheo Dreams in Mid West 

3. Something off Carolina Coast...some models hinted something might form there fast up and out to sea.

4. Whoah what is that in the middle of Atlantic center stage.

At 8 AM it looked like that.

Woke up late.

Wondered how long I'd slept?

Was it late August...

..did I do a Rip Van Winkle?

Whoah.

An illusion and nothing more?

5.  Wavy wave train in the Atlantic. 

6.  "The Wave" is coming off Africa the AI Models are in love with vs the EURO and the GFS.

7. Special mention to Fronts, so many fronts rolling off the East Coast but slowly.

     Front up the ante. They pull a hurricane to them. They stall out and high builds in. Trapped.

     They intensify. Next front pulls them out to sea or towards landfall. So fronts impt in July & August.

The truth is modeling right now is all a wing and a prayer and the wave barely has rolled off of Africa and will contend with SAL and a long road trip. Personally had really thought on going to Miami because the air quality in NC has been bad and it doesn't get along with my asthma and do miss "home" but with more Sahran Dust rolling into Miami on a tropical wind and temperatures will moderate some here I'm staying where I am this week. Maybe later in August. 

SAL forecast. 

Doesn't come to NC just slams Florida

Makes for pretty sunsets but no don't think so.

But in short term waves go where the dust goes.

It's part of the steering currents.

So those models near FL for a storm could verify.

Time as always will tell.

FOX Weather does a great job.

They break it down easy, no hype.

And they talk weather.

Weather, weather & more weather.

No lifestyles or game show formats.

No agenda, no politics if you wondered.

And they have Bryan Norcross.

Good Old Fashioned Weather Channel.

No one like him anywhere!

Cantore comes closest!

Is the Euro AI that good?

Looks like it has something to it.

Is that an illusion or does this have the stuff?

Will the SAL knock the stuff out of it?

Whoah that's kind of got a spin.

I'll be honest. It's been a long hot summer considering it's been a real summer and I don't like summer. When young in Miami we lived in bathing suits and threw an oversized tee shirt on over it like a mini dress to go to the store. My father was not amused when he realized I'd been wearing his comfy white V neck short sleeve tee shirts out side and wearing them out. But we were young and it was fun at the pool with the kids doing things kids do. Even then I used to call the AC "Life Support System" as in when coming in the house I'd put on the "Life Support System" as low as it could go and summer in Miami runs from late April to late November. I do love summer fruits and vegetables in Raleigh. Yesterday I had a "donut nectarine" that was so good, so ripe yet a bit firm and it burst as I bit into it with a bit of juice sliding down my chin and for a few minutes I thought "wow summer isn't that bad" but it passed fast like a baby has gas.

Ordered this shirt today.

Read an old diary recently and the truth is weather people are passionate people who enjoy the beauty of a moment that many barely look up nor even notice. The sky comes alive, the wind blows, rain pours down sometimes going sideways and hitting you so hard at the beach that you realize you are being sandblasted as well by the sand that lifts off the beach in the late season tropical storm and you smile and laugh. You know you're alive. It's like being in love. It's like the world's best sundae. The air moves, flows and watching things fly in the wind is one part horror and one part amazement. I remember some hurricane in Miami with my brother out on the porch that's protected by a wing of the house that jutted out protecting us from the wind and watching roof tiles fly, branches fly... anything that shakes loose fly in the wind. That moment is frozen in my mind the same way the moment we were all outside in the eye of Katrina in North Miami Beach watching the sky clear, birds flying about as well as a few random parrots as parrots are a thing in South Florida and then you could see the edge of the back side of the storm racing at us down the street as we grabbed everything and went back inside while the back side of Katrina rearranged the yard, trees and slammed the neighbors shed against the side of our house all in one piece.

So yeah.......we are a different type of breed. No apologies. Never. Stop. Chasing. And help when you can others to understand the dangers and the need to prepare for the hurricane and we love maps and data and discussion.  Note I had a lot of graham cracker cookies we ate up through the second half of Katrina sitting on the floor spreading what was left of the cream cheese on them. Good memories of a Katrina that was a whole lot nicer in Florida than it was in Mississippi and Louisiana. 

Sweet Tropical Dreams.

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather. Elsewhere whatever.

Enjoy the song. It's not the version I usually like to watch but showed up on my YouTube today after watching a weather forecast video so going with it as I definitely got the message. Where's DEXTER?

We will know soon enough. Use this time wisely! You never know what the wind  might throw at you tomorrow!

NHC Says Nothing for 7 Days. But on the 8th Day......... We May See a Yellow Circle Near Africa Soon. Old Time Models Disagree with AI Models. Stay Tuned.

 

One nice wave, located a drop high.
Otherwise a meager group of waves.

It's July still, August ramps up.
May & June 

There's not much to talk about. The NHC main page is all blue without any yellow areas of interest. What is interesting is how unusual the pattern set up is this year and persistent; unrelenting and refusing to rearrange itself into a semi-normal pattern for July. And as we sail into August nothing is as it seems and yet everyone online is trying to make sense of it all and explain the various reasons it's been slow and why it should ramp up. Should is a word used when you aren't sure but "yeah likely" which is more like wishcasting than forecasting. But when it's slow that's what we do we banter and shoot the breeze on every statistic that hints at a change coming. 

Speculation!

It fueled the Florida Land Boom!!

Lots of speculation going on.

Regular Models vs A1 Models

Regular models show new wave off Africa...

...may go the distance.

A1 Models spray the SE Coast, Bahamas

and parts of the Caribbean with suggested tracks.

So basically anywhere from Florida to Carolinas

...to Bermuda

Lots of fishy tracks as a front moves off the coast.

Understand long range ensembles is like playing fetch with your puppy and throwing out 6 balls at a time in different directions watching to see which ball it goes after. "Show we where a cyclone might go?" and it tries to oblige. It does what it's told. It runs lots of scenarios. Only one two of the above possible tracks has any real strength but it looks scary.  But hey if it helps y'all get out there and get hurricane supplies before you are in the 3 day cone.... good.

Monday Morning... a few hours away

Will start over then...new models... and "The Wave" is still not off the coast.

It's like you want to play pinball, you are so ready and someone who works there says "no not yet we have to check something" and you just wanna pull it back and watch that ball go through the chute and start to play ball. I loved pin ball. Played really well in very high sexy heels. Height gave me leverage seeing how I'm on the short size. Was a real game changer ;)

Sweet Tropical Dreams......... 

...........of if you're in the Carolina.... Sweet Snowy Winter Dreams!

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather ...elsewhere whatever.

Yeah think of the ensembles like pinball possibilities

Funny I always think of that as an 80s song

Tropics Quiet Today. Models Modeling Wild Scenarios Long Range.. Others Show Fish Storms Way Down the Tropical Road. Will August Flip the Switch?

 

10% yellow shrinking in size

Reminds me of that scene...

Melting.........

Not easy being yellow........

 So people ask me is Dexter gonna be mean?
Or Fish Storm or Weak?

Are we sure which is Dexter?
Everyone thinking Tropical Wave.

Some models show out to sea ...

Others say it with music like Dabuh.

Other models show less of a recurve.

Meanwhile the NHC has the shrinking yellow circle with 10% chances in the Gulf and has not yet put up a yellow circle out in the Atlantic. Models all screaming for a storm, yet they are still very long range.

What do we see above? Depends where you are looking. New wave about to hit shear at the entrance to the Caribbean. Sometimes they flare up from the shear as in we see it flare up fast with a burst of color" then gets the wind kicked out of it. Close to Central America is the remnants of X94L, the lower part of the wave continued on and I've tracked it every day out of curiosity. Often waves split when they enter then Caribbean and get the convection kicked out of them and part floats along with the flow to the WNW smashing into Hispaniola and the other part goes West.  

We see fronts, long fronts moving across the Northern part of the USA and south of that front the Huge Heat Dome is setting up, trapping hot air pressing it down making the air hard to breathe and keeping many indoors with the AC up sipping cocktails in the bathtub... Down South they do I'm not sure about Up North as I'm a Florida girl living in the Carolinas.

Colorful convection near the Yucatan.

Seriously watched every shower left from 94L

Crashes into the Yuke or ???

Just showing possibilities.

SAL is still strong.

Will wane soon.

X94L stage left.  

Center stage wave with no model support

Waves over Africa get model support.

Far away still.

Listening to Mike.

He stopped saying hi to everyone... 

...and playing with cute Longo puppy.

This is what everyone is watching.

Signs in models 15 days away...

MDR comes alive!

And yet looking at Africa today...

African Wave Train looking a bit weak.

Meh? Weirdly ...

Tho wave EURO AI wants to develop....

...maybe be over the Indian Ocean.

SAL strongest by Africa too!

Wave on left side took a bite out of it.

Is the cup half full or half empty? Seriously this is always an issue. The SAL is strong won't let anything through, and yet I've watched Tropical Storms swim with the dust and become a Hurricane further West in a more favorable environment. Most waves it kills. But every single wave takes another bite out of the dust and you see it above. 

So stay tuned. August 1st always flips the page and suddenly something to watch. Half the nation is sweltering under heat domes and seems the other half is stuck dealing with flooding. Hoping August brings a change, especially to the flooding.

And, lastly worth saying there's a hazy, lazy, gauzy naked center in the yellow X but convection not there and can't totally ignore it. But can't ignore the convection down near the Yucatan either. But models not wanting to play with it. Convection far to the South. Models come, go and change often. Just watching.

Til NHC pulls the plug...

...it's still a thing.

Have a great weekend! Use this time wisely.... get supplies, make lists, check your medicine cabinet that you have enough to get through 3 to 4 weeks of no Publix Pharmacy open. I'm sure even Amazon would have a problem finding your house in a Andrew scenario where it blew all the street signs away and there was no gas to get anywhere anyway. Hurricane Prep!  Don't forget. And, I'm watching the blob near the Yucatan. 

Have a great weekend! Sweet Tropical Dreams!! No hidden message the song just came to me while I was playing around on YouTube so going with it. Cute fun tune still

Yellow Circle Near Jax 10% Chances of Doing What 93L Did Not Do. X 94L Still Easy to Find Doing It's Thing. New Wave Off Africa. 9 Days Til August

 

Love listening to Mike talk....

This image highlights the game of the day.

Find the Spin in the Yellow Circle

Again there's nothing there now...

Going wider......

SFL convection blowing up this morning.

Naked X marks the spot off Jax

Our old x94L in the Caribbean.

Still moving along, by the way.

Shots of shear in the SW Carib 

Land mass of Greater Antilles...

..unless it stays South.

I'm sorry it's more interesting than yellow X

This is the same set up before Chantal.

And 93L

2 areas of spin on either side of FL

One flaring up with convection in the Gulf

one without convection off Jax

E Gulf blows up 

Small twist near Jax

Look down between FL & Bahamas

Florida Straits

That's the spin zone.

Everything else caught up in the flow

And it's a fast flow.

Regarding X94L

I know I'm impossible.

Would rather watch where it goes

The remnants, it's interesting

Has ramifications down the road.

Black filter shows the ULL

and remnants of X94L

Watch this area

Note the orange convection S of PR

Old Wave.....

Behind it the wave people liked.

I never wanted to argue this....

...94L was the stronger wave.

But waves are waves.

they come they go

they flare up

they bust

Behind them is not much.

Then there's one nice wave but I'm not into it.

Truth is any wave on any given day, like football, has it's day in the sun. Most battle with Saharan Dust and wind shear that's near the Caribbean as well as other places. They are like people. You meet a lot of people in life and they are nice, okay to talk to while you kill time at some event but you don't remember them forever. Others you look up and see from the first moment they come close and know this one IS someone special. Sometimes things work out, other times they go bust. But you remember them as they were different. 94L It had a there there... a bit of a center we could see and attempts at an outflow. We weren't chasing Gulf Dreams......   

That said the Gulf could get a close in system down the road with all the pesky problems of close in developments that are barely organized but deliver tons of rain and severe weather. When we get to that point where there's a definable center developing I'll talk on it more. 

As for the Wave Train..... one close to Africa has that look... maybe. Don't love it as much as the SAL is stronger now than before. SAL comes in busts like strong thunderstorms on a hot summer afternoon, they rain themselves out and the next day another strong thunderstorm flares up again and rains itself out. They are Summer Thunderstorms not a Tropical Storm or Hurricane.

Maybe. Too Soon to tell.

Same family of waves.

Waves of July 2025

August will up the ante.

Always.

Maybe, has that backward C shape.

Next wave comes off after that.

Again they are very well spaced.

If that continues into August...

...watch out!

That's it. Didn't blog yesterday. Can't get with ...the set up again that was supposed to develop Chantal that formed on Florida's East Coast vs the Eastern Gulf nor did 93L form. It's a messy set up, but you never know down the tropical road. I was in a mood yesterday, a bad, sad, mad mood and it came on fast and furious and was hard to navigate but eventually threw it off. Thankfully. Some triggers are always around to stumble over lol which is the only way I can put it. 

Always watch Upper Level Lows (they are game changers) and the curve, the form and the shape of the High Pressure as the High Pressure directs the storms once they actually form. Watch patterns and watch which models for the last Invest verified in ways and which were did not and waiting for the real thing to show up.

Have a wonderful day! August is 9 Days away. August ups the Ante. Old rhyme still holds true.

We may have better satellite imagery.

Better radar and better models.

But still... July Stand by 

(means shop for hurricane supplies)

August ....look out....you must!

Much Love 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

Elsewhere whatever

95L Invests usually interesting...

Enjoy, an old favorite song.