Tropics Quiet Today. Models Modeling Wild Scenarios Long Range.. Others Show Fish Storms Way Down the Tropical Road. Will August Flip the Switch?

 

10% yellow shrinking in size

Reminds me of that scene...

Melting.........

Not easy being yellow........

 So people ask me is Dexter gonna be mean?
Or Fish Storm or Weak?

Are we sure which is Dexter?
Everyone thinking Tropical Wave.

Some models show out to sea ...

Others say it with music like Dabuh.

Other models show less of a recurve.

Meanwhile the NHC has the shrinking yellow circle with 10% chances in the Gulf and has not yet put up a yellow circle out in the Atlantic. Models all screaming for a storm, yet they are still very long range.

What do we see above? Depends where you are looking. New wave about to hit shear at the entrance to the Caribbean. Sometimes they flare up from the shear as in we see it flare up fast with a burst of color" then gets the wind kicked out of it. Close to Central America is the remnants of X94L, the lower part of the wave continued on and I've tracked it every day out of curiosity. Often waves split when they enter then Caribbean and get the convection kicked out of them and part floats along with the flow to the WNW smashing into Hispaniola and the other part goes West.  

We see fronts, long fronts moving across the Northern part of the USA and south of that front the Huge Heat Dome is setting up, trapping hot air pressing it down making the air hard to breathe and keeping many indoors with the AC up sipping cocktails in the bathtub... Down South they do I'm not sure about Up North as I'm a Florida girl living in the Carolinas.

Colorful convection near the Yucatan.

Seriously watched every shower left from 94L

Crashes into the Yuke or ???

Just showing possibilities.

SAL is still strong.

Will wane soon.

X94L stage left.  

Center stage wave with no model support

Waves over Africa get model support.

Far away still.

Listening to Mike.

He stopped saying hi to everyone... 

...and playing with cute Longo puppy.

This is what everyone is watching.

Signs in models 15 days away...

MDR comes alive!

And yet looking at Africa today...

African Wave Train looking a bit weak.

Meh? Weirdly ...

Tho wave EURO AI wants to develop....

...maybe be over the Indian Ocean.

SAL strongest by Africa too!

Wave on left side took a bite out of it.

Is the cup half full or half empty? Seriously this is always an issue. The SAL is strong won't let anything through, and yet I've watched Tropical Storms swim with the dust and become a Hurricane further West in a more favorable environment. Most waves it kills. But every single wave takes another bite out of the dust and you see it above. 

So stay tuned. August 1st always flips the page and suddenly something to watch. Half the nation is sweltering under heat domes and seems the other half is stuck dealing with flooding. Hoping August brings a change, especially to the flooding.

And, lastly worth saying there's a hazy, lazy, gauzy naked center in the yellow X but convection not there and can't totally ignore it. But can't ignore the convection down near the Yucatan either. But models not wanting to play with it. Convection far to the South. Models come, go and change often. Just watching.

Til NHC pulls the plug...

...it's still a thing.

Have a great weekend! Use this time wisely.... get supplies, make lists, check your medicine cabinet that you have enough to get through 3 to 4 weeks of no Publix Pharmacy open. I'm sure even Amazon would have a problem finding your house in a Andrew scenario where it blew all the street signs away and there was no gas to get anywhere anyway. Hurricane Prep!  Don't forget. And, I'm watching the blob near the Yucatan. 

Have a great weekend! Sweet Tropical Dreams!! No hidden message the song just came to me while I was playing around on YouTube so going with it. Cute fun tune still