UPDATED 6 PM. Invest 94L Tropical Wave with a Yellow Circle Weak Model Support But It's an Invest!.......Maybe? Gulf Dreams of a Do Over (Really ...Does Anyone Need That?) Coastal Questions. Hurricane History ...a Look at Franklin. And, You Might All Say Franklin Who?

Statement from NHC.

Straight from the source......

Earthnull shows attempted circulation.

I went to Tropical Tidbits.

Hungry for some data.

Loops.

OMG

The wave got an Invest

with 10% chances.

But models like it.

Hard data thanks to CycloforumsPR

Should these models verify...

...could get a name.

How far can it go?

What's different about this wave?

From the start models show it puliing WNW

vs crashing into Trinidad.

Though it could... 

There's been a change in the force.

No matter what happens...

...somethings changed.

Stay tuned...

....keep reading.

Good discussion today on stubborn waves.

Waves counted out and downgraded.

How stubborn is this wave?

***

8 AM

 

The Water Vapor Loop is funny.

Not meant for this but...

..sometimes it takes a vapor Xray of a wave.

And shows us the bones.

I gave up years ago arguing with people who had more degrees than me in Meteorology that the WV loop shows things prophetically sometimes no other loop shows. Worth noting they often ask me to look at the water vapor loop and give them my thoughts. The Water Vapor Loop is like a muse and it amuses me and I'll leave it at that.  Question is where is the true center of this wave as shown in this screenshot? I like it. I am not investing in much energy in it and there is no other good tropical wave to show. I'm in a tropical wave mood.

As for the what goes around comes around scenario of a mediocre, melancholy system trying to form again close in the Gulf that the models show had potential all I can say is show me the models when we really have something to look at and again there's high pressure to the North and beastly hot weather and that alone can get things going in the Gulf IF there is a center or some there there. Watch the ULL it may be a game changer.

What do we see?

Storms Eastbound again as it's that sort of summer.

Leaving Nebraska for Pennsylvania?

Last nights rain off the coast of Carolinas now.

ULL spinning East of Florida

A small wave sneaking into the Caribbean...

..riding low across the top of South America

The wave of the hour with nice bones.

The wave behind it.

One about to come off Africa hiding in shadows.

Nicely spaced waves.

Beware of waves with multiple possibilities...

Live from the Ballroom Fangdango....

..beautiful waves nicely spaced apart.

That allows them to breathe better...

Another day another heat wave warning.

So let's talk Hurricane History.

I bet you can't name that storm.

NHC seemed surprised it even formed!

Just off the coast of FL....

Poof! Suddenly.

Hey it was a busy year.

20 years ago (oh my God...)

Franklin started to swirl suddenly...

..when we were all looking elsewhere.

"A tropical wave formed west from the African coast late on July 10. The wave entered the Bahamas on July 21 and strengthened into Tropical Depression Six while 70 miles (110 km) east of Eleuthera.^[1] Initially the storm was predicted to move in a clockwise loop and slowly move to the west in response to a high pressure system. Several models showed the possibility of the storm to change westward and move into central Florida.^[2] Anyhow, soon after the depression formed, it strengthened into Tropical Storm Franklin."  From Wikipedia ..send them money they seem desperate, it's awkward watching them beg...

Franklin out of nowhere, being sheared by Gert and they basically came from the same tropical wave. See Dabuh knows this stuff and he screams "fork in the road" all the time. But sometimes, especially in busy seasons, one part of the wave goes one way and the other just keeps going into the Caribbean ignoring the shear at the entrance to the Carib in July and doing it's own thing. You can see this below from an incredible, old school article from TWC showing the many ways storms form and get names. Spoiler Alert it talks on the end of old fronts too!

Salient discussion and a good example.

(always put words in alphabetical order)

Salient and discussion tho flow simplistically.

I digress as it's not hard to write on the tropics today.

More discussion from Wikipedia:

"Tropical Storm Franklin suffered a lot of wind shear related with the development of Tropical Storm Gert, which made the forecasters at the National Hurricane Center to say that Franklin could be destroyed in the next few days.^[3] However the shear stopped as Franklin moved to the northeast, allowing the storm to strengthen. The forecasters now said that Franklin could "attain and maintain hurricane strength" and make a close approach to Bermuda.^[4] Shortly after on July 23, Tropical Storm Franklin reached its strongest point with 70 mph (110 km/h) winds.^[1]"

My diary says it was a Mercury retrograde, I blamed that for the poor model output which was kind of me as I blamed a lot of people for a lot of things that month. Sorry, but I had hit my limit. Laughing but true! Hey now days we'd blame the solar storms or a list of other things. Models are suggestions and nothing more and often they can and will be wrong.

Serendipidously I fell down this rabbit hole.

All I wanted was a map of Franklin.

Like hitting the Mother Lode from TWC.

Wind shear and Saharan Dust eat away day by day at tropical waves that look rock solid and it's assumed they will only last a little while before they give it up to the dust and the shear and yet some as I said in the previous post come alive close in such as Harvey after his mediocre wanderings around the Atlantic and Caribbean then sputtering and stumbling into the Gulf Harvey suddenly found pay dirt and went down in the history books. Like Katrina and Andrew, though few remember Franklin. But this is 2025 not 2005, but we have only just begun to get close to the real part of the Mean Season and usually it comes alive in ways in late July and then Mid August watch out or "look out" as the old rhyme goes that I can hear someone reading out loud. 

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/how-hurricanes-form-20140821

Check back tomorrow. Will the MDR yellow circle still be there? Will a yellow circle pop up again in the Gulf. I'm fairly sure the NHC feels about that scenario the way I do currently, as always time will tell.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather and elsewhere whatever. Duly warned :)

Plays a lot on my YouTube without searching for it.

Good song. Vintage Jimmy ...

....going with it!

Thanks!