Updated! Yellow Circle 20% Tropical Wave MDR. Some Hints Tropical Waves Getting More Viable... Further West. Carolina Coastline Coastal Low? GOM ? High Hanging On...

Adding this in here fast before I go to dinner.

NHC went with the tropical wave I spoke on

This is the wave that I mentioned down below.

Models bullish enough.
NHC gave it the nod.

Stay tuned.

*** written at 6 PM keep reading ****

Tropical Waves Westbound...

...nothing evident but models hint...

Currently there is much disccusion on tropical waves from Africa getting further across the ocean and some models are ready to put up an "open for business" sign .... 

And, if you are reading this you know how much I love tracking tropical waves from Africa. So much so I walked into Tobacco Road in Raleigh and they played Toto's song as I walked in ...just for me. But, seriously I'd imagine it's most prudent to believe it'll take awhile til they survive long enough to get into the Caribbean or head WNW towards Florida up and over the Virgin Islands. But, it's 2025 so I don't count much out. 

So let's look at models using www.windy.com as I think they are good for those who don't know how to write their own models nor have flown into hurricanes on Kermit the recon plane.

So that's Monday the 21st! EURO

Vaguely hangs in there but loses color.

Pretty good. 

Again note the front....

Fronts still on the move.

GFS has been set to stealth mode it seems...

GFS watching off the Carolinas.

Sure bet often for a fast spin up low.

NHC is "nothing for 7 days"

Lots of discussion on the MDR.
Main Development Region.

Oh and Kelvin Waves.... 

I'll believe it when I see it.

We had 2 MJOs that were supposed to show...

...and no show.

The high looks like either a parrot

or a one eyed cyclop

There's discussion on little impulses that gets into the Gulf or the BOC or ... I am not going there today.

But think we are about a week away from a good circle somewhere that'll make us remember August is almost around the corner. Have a good weekend!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather, elsewhere whatever

Come Monday we will see what is what.