93L Naked Center Hovering Over FL Coast While Wxr Mass Moving Thru Gulf. Stormy Weather and Heavy Rains for Some Places. Follow Local NWS for the Best Local Info

Officially 40% chances.

Perhaps if it gets over water.. 

...note NHC has the X over land.

Keaton Beach (really)

But there's no weather there ... 

...the weather is further to the South.

A conundrum 

Loop below.

The NHC marks an X as the center. Until that X goes poof completely the NHC like a loyal hunting dog refuses to blink or look at anything else. They are tracking a center or a possible center or even a naked center. The NHC is very focused on the center. That's why there is always a disclaimer at the top of their Cone that weather can be outside the Cone. The Cone is for the Center. 

I am not the NHC I am BobbiStorm and I'm saying while it's important to remember a naked center is over the coastline, some beach somewhere it's important to follow and remember the weather. Especially with No Name storms and wonky Invests that have the potential to rock your world and flood your roads. Weather is what can disrupt your world and kill you. Don't turn your back on severe weather warnings, flooding warnings or tornado warnings because it does not have a name. Chantal, downgraded to a depression, killed 6 people in NC and tore up many stores and the financial cost of downgraded depression Chantal will be staggering when it shows up.

NHC staying with 93L currently.
NWS is on top of it.

Remember the GFS was right.

I know it happens.

GFS insisted nothing big was forming.

So give the GFS some credit here.

Every model gets it right sometimes.

Mimic shows the issues ...

NHC says there's a chance a Depression can develop. So we watch it officially. Elsewhere there is not much going on. There are great waves coming off of Africa but the sea currents are as dangerous for them as the Saharan Dust. Canary Current and others make a difference. It's not all about Saharan Dust. That said let's look. Sometimes they are split and partly lured away on what seems like a cruise to somewhere not Westbound.  Again it's July not late August and things generally go by the Climo calendar. 

I took the day off yesterday and watched online without blogging. I was a bit under the weather and watched vs blogging as the reality was there were too many intangibles and it was not far out at sea but close in and watchable on radar. Feeling better a bit and watching it on radar still and we will see what we see but there's not much to say for now. 

I have some thoughts on where this season is going but I don't want to go long on them. Many times we have weak storms until late August and September and then things change. I'm not sure if things will change as a side from the crazy large High there have been fronts nonstop on the move. Not COLD fronts but fronts never the less and they are game changers. We often wait for the fronts to show up and now they won't go away. Need to do some research on a few years in my head that are more analog than what many have put out so far. Check back tomorrow. Til then you can't go wrong with Mike's Weather Page. He has everything in place in one spot to check up on Invest 93L and the rest of the tropics. 

Models. Radar. Satellite Imagery.

NHC position top right!

Have a wonderful day...

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

Elsewhere whatever mood I'm in.

I'm moody. 
So who knows ;)

Luckily I have other interests!!

I found this YT video online yesterday.

YT must have decided I needed to relax.

Watched a bit.

Slow tropics. 

Slow jazz.

I prefer slow jazz over fast jazz....

Beautiful imagery.

Enjoy