Hurricane Harbor: Hot African Wave. Gulf & Off FL Deja Vu Possibiliites. Models Bad at Sniffing Out Homegrown Small Shorties.. They Like Long Legged Storms. Amazon Prime Ends Today ... Buy Weather Radios, LED Cute Lights and Canned Pre Made Coffee Good to Have Whenever the Power Goes Out with the Drinking Water!

What a good morning, able to sit and watch and listen to Mike (one of my favorite pastimes) talk tropics with my coffee during his morning brew. This is my second cup of coffee and it's actually an ice cold La Colombe Draft Latte Cold Brew. If you don't know it's good stuff! A Miami staple up here in the Carolinas.

That Wave is awesome. It's common these early perfectly formed, perfectly located tropical waves off of Africa in Mid July aren't really ready for prime time. Sometimes they surprise us further down the road. If you look at the image above... follow the cookie crumbs to the wave that is now in the Caribbean that managed to survive to get there even tho it looked like crap but perked up when it felt the warmer water. They do that sometimes in a sneaky way but often they will do anything they can to stay alive. They avoided the High, they ride low under the Saharn Dust and if they don't stop doggie paddling along they can get a chance in warmer waters.

That's a classic signature.

Usually arond July 26th ...

...which isn't too far away.

Peeking under the covers...

it has a center, a heart, a swirl.

It spins

Does it dip just a drop WSW.

We are getting closer to Prime Time.

Loop up above shows my beautiful wave that has a nice "bubble" meaning running with moisture, that allows them to get further past the SAL and negative conditions so we will watch. Note the lead tropical wave moving into the Caribbean flared up when it got past the shear and the dust. Also note the convection clustered still around the the Gulf and off the Florida coast at the tail end of yet another frontal boundary. Note we have fronts still in Mid July and fronts always up the ante for close in, homegrown development; something could form there even if it's a short term "shortie" so keep watching!

Note models don't do a good job...

..picking up on fast spin ups.

Small systems

So pay attn!

Lastly many sites have a circle here.

Not the NHC

But other sites.

Slight chance.

Only other thing I want to say today is that do not look at Hurricane Prep as something necessary if you get a Major Hurricane and you are in the cone and suddenly you grab the keys and run to Public with everyone else. In 2025 there's always some emergency from flash flooding to flooding from a tropical depression inland that knock out your power and mess up your water supply. Mebane a town to my West has no water... and there will be a problem for a bit still after flooding from Chantal. Hilsborough another town I love West of Chapel Hill had flooding and the water supply went bad and they were on a boil water order for longer than you'd expect. In a world where power outages happen and many worry on terrorism and even war as somewhere someone is always worrying and Lord knows there's a plethora of things to ignore this year but it's better to be prepared even with the most basic supplies such as extra water and lighting in case you never could afford a generator. Amazon has lots of deals today! Check below. Think like a prepper because it's not just a hurricane that knock out your electric and leave you with boil water order! Just a few examples below.