93L Still Dawdling Down Near Louisiana. Will It Get a 2nd Chance Down the Road? African Waves Getting Better Looking. A Look at 2004. Ivan Recurved. Season Didn't Start Til August 1st....

 

Let's start at the beginning. The NHC still has a yellow circle up near New Orleans still with a 30% chance of development in the 2 day. Whether there really is a chance of out of an abundance of caution in the year of flash flooding they want to make sure people in Nola are aware and it's there. I think we all know it's still there. And, I think there "might could" .. maybe is a chance but either way we have Invest so I'm mentioning it. And, either way there's a chance for flooding down in the Bayou so it should be mentioned.  Old Southern saying "might could" meaning maybe there's a chance, might be able to do just that. Until it's gone, we keep watching. 

5 days out and it's got rain still hovering over Nola.

Nola and surrounding areas.

That's a big blob of strong convection.

Hovering, not moving fast.

Let's hope they avoid flooding.

Elsewhere in the tropics we are watching African waves. Getting close to that time of year that a wave will hang in there and go the distance. Listening to Mike talk as I type so I can get this out early in the day and listening to Mike puts me in a good mood so that works. Just after I said "African Waves" he showed a model about a wave. The map below shows the position of a strong tropical wave. When I say "strong" I mean robust enough to get somewhere vs falling apart immediately. I am not saying it's making it to the Bahamas or Bermuda or anywhere other than maybe the rain from the wave will fall on Trinidad and Tobago but it's a step. Step by step the waves are more viable as the MDR goes through changes every year as we move towards August when the waves are more viable and more likely to be able to get to our side of the world as they have more positive, beneficial support from Mother Nature's Climo pattern. Viable and verify are big V words in Hurricane Lingo.

Speaking of Mike and Models.

This is a screenshot of Mike's show.

I have had many friends tell me....

..after watching Mike they learned much.

They were always overwhelmed on model websites.

But as Mike in real time walks ppl thru...

..the models they learn where to go and how to use them.

Some of us live online on computers and ....

...others don't understand as much.

But Mike is a good teacher :)

In real time he brings up models ....

...that are available to everyone.

Knowledge is good.

Regarding the waves.... 

I like they are well spaced out.

When they are too close they don't develop.

Or they crash into eachother... very messy.

Lastly....

There's modeling showing that...

Invest 93L doesn't fade quietly into the night.

Gets caught in the atmophsere.

Circles around.

Gets back into the Gulf.

There's a post with pretty colors

I do so love color.

My friend Whitney reposted that graphic above.

;)

I especially like the way Payton Malone shows the High in the middle as many do not. The High is the driver (always) and shows how it's circulation forces the moisture connected with 93L to circle around and get a second chance of development. Could it happen? Ivan did exactly that, however Ivan was a Cat 3 Hurricane and maintained spin all the way into the Atlantic reclassified Ivan and cut through Florida to get back into the Gulf. I'd say Ivan had more kinetic energy but who knows. In odd years when we have odd systems we often get blocks and ridges and storms stalling out cruising around the Atlantic then coming back as say Ginger in 1971. Do you believe in second chances???

2004

Worth noting I started this blog in 2004.

My own weather diary online.

In June everyone was ready to and I quote:

"stick a fork in it"

"forget about it"

Everyone was sure the season was a dud.

It was not a dud.

Sure y'all remember this cartoon.

Timeline on 2004 Hurricane Season

The A storm didn't form til August.

Alex in August.

Nothing in June.

Nothing in July.

Zero. Zilch. Nothing.

Never judge a book by the cover...

...until it's finished being read.

Until a season is in the rear view mirror.....

...keep on preparing.

Keep on tracking.

Never stop chasing.

This is still sort of Pre Season.

Think Football.

Hurricane Season and Football come alive..

late in August and September.

Now I watch PreSeason games.
I know some who make fun of them.

Which type are you?

Stay well.

Be Happy.

Smile.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

Elsewhere whatever

Not sure why but.......

....this song comes to mind.

So going with it.

I do so love Alan Jackson.

Very summer like song.