Hurricane Harbor: Tropical Waves Looking Good in MDR Still..... Home Grown Always Possible & the "feature" N of PR is Still There. Goal Now Is For a Wave to Survive. Almost August.

When do we see a yellow circle.

Looks like a healthy wave train to me.

???

Another day another blog. Another day watching more model runs. Another day of Water Loops that are I admit mentally so refreshing. Another day of Iced Coffee because it's so damn hot! Maybe warm coffee next week when the "cooler" air filters in to the Carolinas.

Listening to Mike talk while I think and debate what to say. Maybe I'll just go with the flow and be honest and not try to be so politically correct here.

This is a healthy wave train.

Maybe yellow circle by tonight?

There are some very good, strong tropical waves in the distant Atlantic that have shown a tenacity to hold on despite riding with the worst of the dust, and yet they have little model support by the "reliable models" though they are beginning to notice them. The new AI Models have long range fantasies that may or may not come true. Some of the AI Models did well last year in long range development, sniffing out things it took longer for the EURO or GFS to show and they were fairly good with intensity forecasting. But we are not at a point where we can rely on them and the NHC watches but follows their game plan as always. Ps the NHC is the last to make a change in behavior.

Using Mike screenshots because why not?

EURO beginning to see what A1 was whispering.

Newest run.

Those are Lows.

Tropical Waves not hurricanes...

....it's a start in the process of change.

Flipping that switch!

I said I was going to go with the flow and write in real time so I am. Sunday on the 3rd of August, the EURO shows the wave near the Islands in a similar place to where the AI had it on the 1st and but AI developed the wave more than the current EURO is showing. Still close in location to the AI. The troffiness :) to the North is in place. It's a similar set up to what the AI model was trying to sell the last few days.

But EURO doesn't develop it.

Moisture moves into Miami.

Without the circulation AI showed.

Current vorticity below

Oh blob N of PR has a signature now.

Strong healthy signature.

So the biggest question today is do you trust the new AI Models or do you not? Do you trust AI? Do you trust anyone? Trust is such a big problem in today's world. Went to sleep last night at some point, my friend I was talking to on WhatsApp went to sleep, my eyes were getting tired and the presser from NYC didn't tell much actual story behind the story which in truth they never do. They give basic facts. He's dead. And, my thoughts was "I can go look tomorrow, Lord knows there will be a ton of conspiracy theories all over the Internet' and YouTube channels will have a field day as no one trusts anyone anymore. And, yet they trust people they don't know on YT suggesting their own conspiracy theories or do they just watch for entertainment?

What entertains you?

Are the AI Models an entertaining phase we are going through when the regular models are "ho hum I don't see nothing?" Strange times we live in. Yet always strangeness. As Dickens said "it was the best of times, the worst of times" always something going on somewhere then and today!

Tropics sort of strange this year. The flow is all weird. The heat is stuck (happens in July) and the Canary Current is on steroids out in the Eastern Atlantic which bugs me more than the seasonal Sal. Either way the story is like this........... it's late July...........soon we flip the calendar to August. Something, somewhere gets a name. Either it'll be "surprise close in home grown" from a front, a feature or a tropical wave that stayed together enough to get close in. Or it'll be some tropical wave that out performs the negative models and possibly verifies the AI Models that said it could happen and scared everyone with a named storm threatening a popular destination.

Tropical waves below the Highs.

Typical.

There's an area off the Carolina Coast.

There's that feature N of PR that's odd.

There's a healthy wave train in MDR.

I think it should get a yellow circle.

But it's not my call.

Have an Iced Coffee! Splurge on Ice Cream and when the cool air filters in you can lose the 5 pounds on a Keto diet of BBQ Brisket and delicious soups that'll be fun to make when it's not 105 degrees outside. Relax, watch and time will pass and some system will get a name and then after August 20th there will suddenly be a change in the tropical wind and we will be talking about hurricanes not features or coastal lows or whether or not a tropical wave will survive.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X ... mostly weather on X ...elsewhere whatever mood I'm in whatever goes.