6 PM Update. GOM 20% -The Search for Francine and Gordon Goes On...As We Cruise Into September. First Week of September We Should... Have Something Official To Track. Invest? TD? TS? Hurricane. 2 Areas We Are Watching!! Labor Day Weekend... Enjoy IT!

Nice graphic.

20% Yellow in the GOM.

If you have already read the blog...

..you know I went long on GOM 

...the last few days.

Has a look.

Maybe it's just a look but....

... it now has it's own yellow X

Ensemble models show the orange circled area...

...moving into Caribbean 

And likely being a landfall threat for USA

As I mentioned but now models supporting what I said.

Stay tuned.

Lots of food used for hurricane supplies...

...will be on sale Labor Day Weekend.

And after Labor Day maybe on sale!

2024 Hurricane Season alive .... 

...are you prepared?

Keep reading if you didn't.

And, thanks for reading!

* * * 

Sticking with this until we get a Cone ;)

Shows what this is all about.

Tropical Atlantic.

Faux hurricane SE of FL

Illusion, just heavy rain.

No circulation.

IN the MDR

we have so many contenders.

Can count 5 little areas in that mess.

Messy mass of convection.

So what did the NHC do???

They dragged the orange further West.

Makes sense.

Forms later. Moves further West.

Orange 40% whenever - 20% yellow

7 days not 2 day...

X marks the spot NHC looking at.

Sometimes that spot jumps in real time.

Other times.... it develops at that spot.

All a matter of time...

..as the song goes.

Being honest this is what tracking in the tropics is all about and forecasting is about tracking. Now days we have modeling and usually modeling is awesome and helps us greatly see into the distant future. Sometimes when there is a messy area of convection with competing centers of development it takes longer to develop and models try so hard to grasp onto what will happen but they are run from a certain perspective and place and point and garbage in begets garbage out. Models are bad at picking up very small centers until they become stronger signals and sometimes close in development of a not purely tropical kind is missed as well. Once we have a center, a well defined center and we get information from recon and other satellite sources we get way better, more reliable models. Deep Down South we'd say "more better models" but til then everyone online is going to run with every model run as if they are playing Fantasy Football and this is not Fantasy Football. 

IF this is Francine and that name can easily be stolen if this wave complex dawdles along westward. Only time will tell. Until that time when one cell within the convective mass finally finds it's MOJO we are just shooting the tropical breeze. And, may I add we have a Labor Day Weekend without a Labor Day Hurricane. Well, not yet as I don't want to tempt fate as the original Labor Day Hurricane formed very close in and went through Rapid Intensificaitons so not counting my weekends until they are in the book and the book is closed with a smile and one last sunburn! 

Rather than freaking out that the NHC didn't move on up the ladder of colors to red with our orange circle, stop and remember what that means. That means as the long orange blimp shows that the longer it takes to form and the weaker it stays the further West it goes. Further West is more a player for the USA coast after the Islands. 

Remember Debby.... early analysis based on models showed Debby forming faster somewhere off the FL coast near the Bahamas and the Carolinas were watching. Formed way further West off the coast of Key West almost ....furtehr West than where the early models indicated it could form. Formed in real time. Will add the area off of Florida and the Carolinas known as the Georgia Bight did get tropical weather but that was not a cone but a formation zone of possibilities. Something was wrong with the early modeling and yet even though many thought Debby might never form, Debby did form and made landfall and went further inland into the Carolinas after leaving Florida than original models indicated. 

They are models. When models do not line up with what is happening synoptically and offer possible solutions that are not verifying, it's not a time for wishcasting but analytical thinking. Saw the word "analytics" today on X when it tells you how many people have looked at your post and thought to myself, this is the problem currently. We need more analytical thinking as well as looking at the synoptics and remembering models are making a guess and that guess, that possible forecast is only as good a model run til the next model run. With no defined center each model run has a very fast expiration date. Don't invest too much energy into any one model run at least until we have a real Invest. That said the GFS Club 384 definitely adds some spice and entertainment to our day ...especially when it's quiet.

GOM is still producing convection and there is a small mid level sense of circulation there and remember this all started with an Upper Level Low moving inland and dropping anchor. Off the SE coast of FL is an area thats a huge convective cluster that's upping the ante for storms over Florida and I mean every day someone texts me "I'm telling you this storm is stronger than most Tropical Storms" and I look at the video and nod. Florida in September is all about September rain any time of the day.... 

There's a front taking it's time moving towards the Carolinas. Every single day they push back the forecast arrival back by a day or so. That is because the models are not handling the frontal boundary any better than they are the tropical wave. IF a front pushes through then High Pressure sets up for a few days. Everything is timing with tropical analysis ....especially. Doorways open and slam shut often in real time. One could make a case for a late forming system, finding it's MOJO in the Caribbean similar to Debby and then what does it do? Depends on when it forms, where it forms, how well formed the center is vertically and what is upstream once it forms. Lots of variables. Let's say it forms in the area below that has been ripe and juicy. It won't be Debby, might be Francine unless the African Wave or something close in forms first. Francine and Gordon are the next two names and we do currently have two contenders. Maybe it becomes a cross between Debby and Ernesto. Time will tell. Further West it gets the stronger a front it needs to ride unless it just shuffles off to Central America, doubtful but definitely a sliver of a possibility tho not probable currently. 

Now we look at our 2nd area.

The Wave.

If you look closely there you will see...

... a slight twist.

Earthnull shows a vague circulation.

That's at 850 vs regular.

Regular shows it but this shows it better.

Where does it form? Is it vertically aligned? Could it take a more Ernesto track while the lead wave does more of a Debby? But it won't be Debby or Ernesto, it would be Francine and Gordon we could be tracking when September rolls around. In truth models have been backing off from September 4th to September 5th to September 7th in the Islands.

Analytically speaking the models are not currently handling this well, but then again they won't until a center forms.

That's it.

I don't post on Saturday so I went long today. And, I'm thinking I'll be out and about enjoying Carolina life on Sunday so wrote long today.  I love writing. I love watching weather especially the tropics and winter weather. And, I write long because I can and I have the time and I love it. And, I have friends that like to read what I write and if I don't post they check with me to make sure I'm not sick or there's a problem. Fans, friends... friendly stalkers lol and I enjoy writing though editing is not as much fun even though believe it or not I've made good money editing and writing.

Happy Labor Day.  Oh gosh, just remembered I had a child literally born on Labor Day haha on September 1st and because Amazon I'm sending him something now!!

Lastly, despite no hurricane barreling towards a coastal town the beach towns along the Gulf of Mexico and Florida will deal with lots of wild weather this weekend and perhaps beach goers will go inside and spent money at some of those beach based businesses that need that last big weekend of the Summer before we move into colder weather and only people like me head for the beach.

Today is a 2 for 1 song fest.

Because the first song showed up.

But wasn't the song I wanted.

But it's all good as I love it.

2nd song was the one I was thinking of...

Just being loose and grooving to the music.

While looping, typing and thinking out loud here.

Sweet Tropical Dreams, 

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Twitter mostly weather

Insta whatever...

The song I was thinking of...

.... but hey both work perfectly.

Not a forecast................

.............just my musical mood today!

40% Orange Area in MDR. New Wave Off Africa Rocks with Color. Convection in GOM. Islands Need to Watch as a Tropical Depression May Develop as the Wave Gets Closer In.. Models, Thoughts and Discussion on 2024 Hurricane Season.

 

Yes colorful African Wave & color in GOM.

Further to the West in the MDR is a wave.

40% orange with models all jumping on board.

NHC Main Page has an X marks the spot.

MDR ... African Wave may get it's own circle soon.

But today we are talking on the 40% AOI
Somewhere in this area a center should form.

If models are correct and I believe they are.

Pattern this year so far has been....

...development closer to the Islands.

East Atlantic ...African Wave.

Ignore the glitch as Tropical Tidbits was down.

Happily it's up now.

A reminder to donate to a site you use often.

Yes, it's free...

..but as Mike says "good to give a tip"

There's a real sense of "there" there with new wave.

Questions still abound in GOM

Consistent convection is always a question.

When it persists sometimes pressures lower.

As for models this morning.

@hurrtrackerapp on X

Models move around before a center has formed.

There is NO center... 

...so we look at ensemble models.

Westbound, forming slowly.

We've seen this dance a few times this year.

Patterns persist.

Islands in the path now.

So remember that and keep watching.

Again orange and red deep moisture.

Down the road it could be a real player.

And, behind it another player.

Hurricanes stay away from High Pressure.

They seek out low pressure ....

...think of the orange as cookie crumbs.

Follow the cookie crumbs.

Again til it has a center...

...models are taking a stab in the dark.

As of Thursday Morning.

From Alan Synder 

Note there's a system behind the one in Carib.

High in place to the North.

A Low over GOM coastline.

That's it for images and models and facts.

Note there are fronts and so that matters.

Fronts can pull a storm in...

...or sweep it out to sea.

In GOM it means it tracks far inland..

..as it runs with the frontal boundary.

Below are thoughts on where we are today.

August 29th on the edge of September.

Busted forecast or busy backloaded season?

Really so hard to stop and put down thoughts this morning as so many thoughts are racing through my head. Some tropical and others regarding what to make for dinner and a to do list a mile long that's gonna probably sit there as I loop loops, look at models and listen to thoughts online. In reality THIS is the time that being online talking with friends about possibilities is the most interesting, as once we have a well developed system even without models those of us who know ... know where it'll go in the overall flow of the atmosphere.  At that point there's a ton of NHC Cones littering X & Insta as everyone is just posting the newest Cone and it's a different ballgame. The name of the game then is to get the word out and hope that what you say and how you say it will help someone in the path of a hurricane prepare better and take the proper precautions. 

How things can change on a dime in the tropics as we end August and move towards September. That's the rhyme.. September Remember. And, it's that way as many times we sail through July and August with not much going on but when September comes around it's important to keep in mind the old rhyme, September Remember...   

Most of this week there was a litany of how the season was dead and all the models were off and the forecast for a busy season was a bust and a lot of whining and complaining with great amounts of angst. One group was annoyed we told them to prepare and the other group annoyed chasing pickings were getting slim and slimmer in the Atlantic Basin. The rest praying for more cold fronts to come down and debating how to decorate for Halloween not afraid that any hurricane will go blow their goblins away.

As much as I LOVE Hurricane History, if I saw one more video or image yesterday of a hurricane making landfall on that day in history, reminding everyone how slow it is this year.... I might have lost it. That said maybe it was good as one of my kids sent me a NWS discussion before Katrina explaining what those in New Orleans in it's path would see as the wicked, wild hurricane made it's way towards New Orleans and it's neighbors in Mississippi. Everything East and Northeast of New Orleans IS Mississippi not Louisiana as seen in the map below. Again Katina did NOT make landfall in New Orleans, but further East on the Mississippi coastline ....but the levee failure that was always predicted to be one of America's worst case scenarios actually happened in the same way Hurricane Andrew made landfall in Miami Dade county as a worst case scenario. 

And, maybe that was the important message for now, he's one of those kids who is sure all hurricanes turn before Miami as Miami has been magically lucky for a long time now. In truth Mother Nature doesn't give a damn about what might be good or bad for you living in hurricane country, she will do what she wants to do and worst case scenario be damned even if it means the dam actually fails and the levee lets loose and floods an entire area that was spared the eye and stole the attention of the world from places such as Waveland Mississippi that took the brunt of the eye of a Cat 5 monster. Over 1,390 people died from Katrina, that's the official figure given...at least.

Memory is strange ...what we remember and what we don't remember... and how we remember it.

Forecasts were made for a very busy hurricane season. The question is how do you define a busy hurricane season?

All names will be used up by named storms?
How many Major Hurricanes there were in 2024?
You were hit by a hurricane?
How much ACE we had in 2024?
There will be multiple storms and areas of interest to watch (tho they could be mostly weak but named)
There were strong, long tracking storms like Beryl that bumped up the ACE?

Everyone has their own thoughts. A bevy of named but weak tropical systems sputtering across the Atlantic shipping lanes with names as we move all the way past P to me isn't the most memorable hurricane season even if we broke records for most names used or on the map at the same time. Neither 2022 or 2023 will be remembered name by name for all the ocean spinners, yet both will be remembered ironically for the 'i' storms Idalia and Ian. 2021 will be rememebered for many storms, but Ida the "i" storm also rated as one of the most memorable. Perhaps we should start worrying on the "i" storm as much as people in NC and FL are worrying on the F storm Francine.

I storm this year is Isaac. Keep that in mind, just saying.

So long story short.

Perhaps the models and forecasts were correct, but they were translated by humans as a hyperactive, seemingly neverending hurricane season with every name being used vs intense long trackers building up ACE and endangering many cities along the way leaving large swaths of devastation and destruction. I mean any year with Beryl in it is not a quiet or easily forgotten hurricane season. And, while we did have Debby on the map a long time as well as Ernesto, they were center stage mostly with little competition from colorful areas of interest in fall shades of yellow, orange and red.  Perhaps the forecast based on the models were not so off, but how we interpreated them was a bit off. And, maybe we will have a late season, what we call backloaded with lots of hurricanes all through October and activity into November but the season didn't pick up in quantity until September the way the old rhyme goes. However, we sure had quality with Beryl.

Something to think on ...while wondering if this new area we are watching is a problem for Florida and the Bahamas and ultimately Carolinas or it gets into the Gulf of Mexico....

Today we wonder and watch. In a week from now we will know and have hard facts and probably lots of Cones posted online.

And we will also know if this awesome new wave leaving Africa is the player many think it can be or we turn our attention closer in to the Caribbean and late blooming waves that flare up before the Islands the way this season began.  And, what will come out of the deep SW Caribbean later in the season? And will strong cold fronts call to those Caribbean cruisers and will they take rides on the fronts the way Wilma  did as well as countless others where fronts became the driver of how a hurricane gets out of the Caribbean and where it goes. Wilma in South Florida was remembered for a rare hurricane passage that brought comfortable cooler air but that was October 25th, not August 25th. 

Stay tuned. It's not over til it's over and it's definitely not over. 

A friend said to enjoy the ride. That is true in that years ago when I was little first tracking hurricanes by coordinates given out on the radio and listeing to the weather radio for each new detail... it was a process and ships at sea would give information on a vigorous tropical wave that the NHC would relay to the rest of us as we marked our hurricane maps tracking along as the NHC posted new information. Every little detail mattered from barometric pressure to forward speed to actual coordinates.

Then we moved into the world of online tracking and everyone was able to access satellite imagery as if we were a fly on the wall of the NHC. Note they have many computer screens on each desk, but we had the one in front of us and we were excited when the image finally downloaded and sites online showed the advisories with all the info we desired for tracking on our maps at home. Then MEMES and GIFS came out and people tracked online or watched sites that track online and everyone went wild with watching the models, now accessible to everyone online. Then people began to argue models :( and on some level many online now, do not appreciate the slow process of waiting to get information and the analysis by experts who weren't using models that they could argue over. 

I loved it when I was little. I love the way it is now. I love having access to satellite imagery, models and even recon information in real time.  I also appreciate how we got here today. I very much appreciate the exchange of information from professional meteorologists as well as those who have made it an almost full time hobby while doing their jobs in other fields. I've had young kids reach out to me in meteorology school to talk on how they navigate the future with their careers and I've had many a person who got a degree in meteorology tell me why they are doing another job as it's easier to make money, pays well and yet they still love meteorology telling me how many hurricanes they have gone through or chased.

Just remember models are forecasts made by a machine with data that's put into them. Long range model forecasts are stabs in the dark. When we have a center, a closed center there is more light to see better where it will go and well as always garbage in ...garbage out. Dropsonde data in almost always means a more reliable forecast.

The season is memorable already. We already have a lot of ACE. We are just getting into the heart of the season. Remember that.

CLIMO shows we begin the climb now.

As we move towards September Remmeber.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Twitter mostly weather.

Insta whatever.

Tropical Opportunities. Does Mother Nature Capitalize on Them?? African Wave .. .MDR Wave Showing Signs of Life. GOM Filled with Moisture. Is This Going To Be a CV Season or Caribbean Season?

Let's look at this cool image. TWC

Hard to ignore the right red near Africa.

ITCZ .. mid way wave some color.

Orange in GOM

Little tropical symbol in ATL lol

That's our 10% in 2 days... 

..can't wait to see the 2 PM.

(said sarcastically lol)

20% yellow submarine.

Does NHC put up a new yellow area?

Near Africa?

Let's look at the wave....

There's so much hanging on this wave.  Online people are hopeful or snarky or ready to stick a fork in the whole season.  Why you ask? I mean it's "only August" still and yet honestly the waves over Africa are not very promising. This wave has a sense of circulation to it and that's new as most waves have come off with lots of promising color but no "there" ....there and then the wave is barely there after a day or so.

I've heard people say "waves looking good over Africa" the last few weeks and my head quietly goes "huh?" because the waves haven't been so good. Best waves were way back when Beryl came off to much excitement online even though it was June too soon but not for Beryl. Little system East of Africa to watch but wave train is meh. 

MDR got some pink on Mimic.

That wave is trying to get a circulation going.

Stay tuned... may take a while.

GOM has lots of moisture.

Fast flow due to strong High to the East.

This area has been persistent.

Sometimes pressures lower.

ULL involved.

Upper Level Lows sometimes develop.

They suck in too much moisture.

Moisture gets caught in them.

Works their way into lower levels.

Pressures drop.

Close in surprise development.

Surprise because ....

...everyone watching the MDR

Last thing I will say today is this........I have said this year several times we are running 3 weeks to a month ahead of schedule and Beryl showed that, as did a very cold cold front last week and one expected next week in Carolinas. The MDR may or may not produce, in theory even in crappy seasons we squeeze a few systems out of an unwelcoming MDR. But, what I'm looking at is the very friendly, welcoming Caribbean may produce strong hurricanes many will look back and wish had never formed. The latent heat in the SW Carib or down near South America can produce Mitch and Matthew like systems and storms near the Yucatan can create Michael sort of hurricanes or wild Wilma. 

One way or the other we will have something named to talk about soon nuff. Just a matter of time.

Have an awesome August 28th!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Twitter mostly weather

Insta whatever

love this song....

...reminds me of California days.

A whole lotta ppl were loving this song too.. 

Yellow Blimp 20% - Not SOOO Quiet Anymore. ATL Not Overly Friendly But Models Perking Up. Ensemble Models Easily Excitable

 

From Spaghetti Models.

Top 2 day. Bottom 7 day.

Yellow 20% in the 7 Day.

First off I want to remind you it's a large area, more like a blimp or submarine than a circle. That means they are unsure where it could form and again it's not a Cone it's a "zone" where a tropical cyclone might develop. When you look at the image below, note this other NOAA site colors these tropical waves with low, but consistent possibilities.

Also on Spaghetti Models if you scroll down.

24 Hour on left. 48 Hour on right.

2 Waves in the Tropical Atlantic.

In GOM a growing swath of purple.

What this means is that some models, especially ensemble models take a wave westbound into the Islands or near the Islands close enough that they have raised the level attention to this area should a tropical cyclone form and necessitate putting up some sort of warnings for the Islands within the 7 day should one of these areas develop. 

This is not a lock in on "OH MY GOSH WE ARE GONNA HAVE BIG HURRICANE THERE" as much as a "heads up something could form in the next 7 days, for now just low chances if and until models change" and that's it. But it is exciting to go online and see yellow on the NHC map after days of an empty map late in August.

As I said yesterday, remember the tropics usually come alive in September. Do they come alive with innuendo and clickbait or do they really, really come alive? Most meteorologists currently are being very conservative and reminding people the overall look for the Atlantic is not overly supportive for development. I'll agree with that and remind you that on any given day on the last days of August the tropics can surprise us and come alive quickly. 

Speaking of quickly, this normally happens when there is a low attached to a healthy looking tropical wave exiting Africa. Til recently they have had lots of color, a hint of spin but nothing really there. The new wave coming off has excited many as it does have a small low pressure attached to it and it's large and large waves are harder to lose color once they move from land into the water. And we are moving into September where CLIMO tends to kick in...

Earthnull below.

Definitely ups the ante.

That's it. I'll talk models tomorrow. There isn't much to say regarding the yellow area featured on the NHC main page.  Too many questions and the answers are mostly the regular answers.

Where does it develop?  Does it develops?

When does it develop? Sooner rather than later... more a recurve possibly.

Later vs sooner.... into the islands.

How strong would it be? Stronger could recurve faster or move up towards Bahamas.

(East Coast and Florida pays attention)

Weaker would be westbound and maybe a player later. (Florida and GOM pays attention)

For extra credit........there's this little area of convection near Florida. I checked Earthnull on every filter trust me. Just after all that talk on Andrew ... I go online pull up one of my favorite satellite views and go "huh??" and hey maybe it's trying to tell us something or it's just a funny mind trick.

Have a great day.

Stay tuned.

By the end of the week.....

..we should have something to really talk on.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter 

Twitter mostly weather.

Insta whatever.

When it doubt....

..always go with Willie.

Why Is It So Quiet in the Atlantic in Late August? Conspiracy Theories Abound. Everyone Has an Opinion. Definiton of Tropical Depression Has a New Weird Meaning... Atlantic Nina? Hmnn??? Maybe. Who Knows?

 

A very quiet Atlantic for the end of August.

This post was inspired by the post above.

Jim Cantore tells it like it is...

...no wild click bait words. 

Tells it like it is...

So rather than try to find something, somewhere to point out to you that might develop in early September as some models are hinting at and I do mean "hinting" and only "something" vs a GFS Fantasy Cane I'm going to write about why many are confused it's still slow in late August. This blog is my journal, my tropical diary and anyone that wants to read along can ... read along. I never expected it to be read as much as it is read...especially when things are busy in the tropics... and I never expected to be living in Carolina not in Florida years later still writing this blog. I write. I am a writer. I love writing and so I am writing today. Read along if you'd like as I discuss the possible reasons that are logical or even out there for why the hurricane season is acting like a sort of normal slow to mediocre hurricane season versus the overactive hurricane season that many forecasts promised back in April, May and June. Perhaps June is too soon to be sure what any given hurricane season will look like in September. Time will tell.

Everybody wants an answer, a reason or some cute catch phrase to write about to explain why this hurricane season touted in the news as a hyperactive hurricane season using up all the letters given to us by NOAA to name storms has gone silent both in action and in modeling. It's hard to even get the GFS to toss us a fantasy cane in 384 hours. But we had wild predictions with long explanations and pretty graphics delivered to the general public online and shared on every social media and now everyone is asking why the Atlantic Tropical Basin has gone quiet. I'm personally hiding from relatives on WhatsApp who are asking me this question lately; hiding here on my blog which they hopefully never read as there was a time I went long on my life not just the weather. 

From Central America and Mexico to the Gulf of Mexico to Florida and the Caribbean below it's quiet. Out past the Caribbean in the Main Development region it's quiet with some waves wandering West across forecast hot water and low shear and yet nothing is spinning. Up in the North Atlantic where it's usually way too cold to have a hurricane, we watched as Ernesto went Hurricane again looking better than it ever did while it swam with the Saharan Dust gulping in dry air making it difficult to find it's mojo. But, hey no problem up near Newfoundland.

It's been a strange year in the tropics. Beryl formed too early, too strong and went long all the way from Africa as a wave to it's final landfall along the Gulf of Mexico after hitting islands in the Caribbean that rarely see a hurricane let alone a Cat 5 Hurricane with 165 MPH winds on July 1st. Anyone can tell you normally that we don't see hurricanes in the Caribbean in June and July, because of the shear at the entrance to the Caribbean....usually there. 

Saharan Dust came on strong AFTER Beryl made it's sneaky moves towards landfall as a historic Cat 5.

And then we had a very weak, short lived Chris and Ernesto that had multiple problems finding it's groove, but managed to make landfall in Bermuda as a Hurricane and then after falling apart it came back to life looking better than ever in the far North Atlantic.

It would be very easy to say that the 2024 Hurricane Season has been really weird. And, when I say weird I mean without a doubt in every way it's been weird and it just keeps getting weirder. The word weird has been overused this year first in the political arena and then everywhere you go to describe music, food or fashion.

"adjective

1. suggesting something supernatural; uncanny.

   "the weird crying of a seal""
2. 
   

It can be used to describle the 2024 hurricane season as there is something uncanny and even some online think supernatural.  You know all those theories on pole shifts and aliens arriving by 2025 as if we don't have enough problems already?

The hardest thing to say sometimes, especially in the world of science and meteorology, is "we don't know" and even harder to say "I don't know" and this is where we are on August 26th saying we don't know for sure why the Atlantic has gone so silent. 

I don't know. I'll say it.  And, I'll add it's a mystery that will take some solving. I love research, I've worked as a Reference Librarian and love trying to learn more and unravel meteorological mysteries.

I can say "September things will change" or I can say "the MJO is coming like the tropical cavalry to save the hurricane season" and I can also say "watch close in for development along an old stalled frontal boundary" but the truth is I'd be grasping at straws and repeating what's logical. And, it's logical to say that CLIMO will kick in at some point and we will have a backloaded hurricane season busy in Mid September through October, but we really don't know for sure. 

Every hurricane season is different. I used to say they were like Care Bears and each one is unique!

Every hurricane season has it's own rhyme or reason ... we often understand once it's over.

Long range forecasts and predictions are just that... predictions, forecasts to use as a guide for what might be and yet sometimes they are very off.

In 1997 there were forecasts for a bumper crop of hurricanes in a busy season and we had nothing for a long time to talk about other than joking around which we did often. Yes, we talked on all sorts of things, but we weren't talking on advisories and there was no bumper crop of hurricanes. Why? Well, looking back we had an El Nino form suddenly that was not forseen, not in the forecast and came on so strong that some magazine such as Time or Newsweek called it the "Mother of All El Ninos."  (Time was like Twitter for those of you who don't know and Newsweek was like Instagram.  A little humor helps right?) 

The beauty and mystery of weather is that Mother Nature still has tricks up her sleeve even though we think in 2024 we know everything. If you want to talk about A1 may I say it sucks on Facebook and Instagram, it's a total fail almost always though it works better on other platforms. 

Some blame the quiet season on a stronger, later SAL outbreak. Okay, that's logical.

Some blame it on poorly formed waves moving too fast and that also is logical.

Some blame it on the higher latitude waves that have been moving off of Africa and okay.. but if so why aren't they forming fast into Hurricanes and swiming up into the Atlantic as Fish Storms?? Oh right the SAL, okay that's logical. 

Some blame it on the "Pole Shift" that has more videos on YouTube than Atlantis and the New Madrid Fault Zone and while bored there's always someone who will watch anything ...especially if there's some fear factor involved.  Hey...who hasn't snuck a glance?

Of late this is the newest theory.

Link below........

Now we have a new reason that is popping up everywhere and that is the possibility of an unusual misplaced La Nina forming in the Southern Atlantic. All La Nina and El Ninos have an impact on traditional weather patterns. We know that an El Nino usually shuts down the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean as there is stronger shear than usual. La Ninas in the Pacific usually up the ante for wilder hurricanes seasons in the Atlantic with less shear and I'll add Beryl in fact went all the way through the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico. 

South Atlantic always puts on a show on Earthnull!

The South Atlantic has been the scene this year of many a conspiracy crime as there have been odd formations, areas heated or cooled that arose to a whole slew of conspiracies online a while back. Now there is talk that the South Atlantic is cooler and creating a La Nina of it's own and that could, would impact the Main Tropical Development zone in the Atlantic and that's logical if indeed it is happening.  Though not sure it would explain why the Gulf of Mexico that was fairly active earlier in the season is having problems now getting anything to spin and anyone who has been around knows the GFS usually likes to spin up a Major Hurricane hitting New Orleans on any given run when things are quiet on all the other models. 

We don't know. I don't know. No one really knows for sure though many think they may know. Looking back from the perspective of December we will know how many storms actually formed, where they made landfall or swam out to sea and why this season was not as busy as expected by all the experts putting out forecasts for a hyperactive hurricane season. And, I'll add we may see that yet.... as we went 60 days in 2022 during the hurricane season without even a tropical depression and then things got very busy!

Is this really sooooo strange?

Or is this because expectations were raised to Mt. Everest expectations for a very busy hurricane season?

That's a good question. Here's a nice image from Jason Nichols on Twitter. Note part of the discussion is this season's hyperactive forecasts were based on a huge, fast La Nina forming that would up the ante in the Atlantic for a busy season on top of the hot water in the MDR back in April and May. Then many experts said that the fast forming La Nina was overhyped and expect a slower forming La Nina  and that might a factor for our quiet times now. Many have said La Nina will form in the later part of the Hurricane Season such as late September, October and November.  It is logical there is a reason that the La Nina that was forecast is dawdling. If indeed we have an Atlantic Nina it might slow down or change the formation of the La Nina off the West Coast of South America. And, again La Ninas and El Ninos always have their unique qualities, they are not all the same.

I don't know.

But I do care.

And I am curious.

And trying patiently ....

...to wait and see what we will see.

Stay tuned.

No promises ... and surprises may abound.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

Link to article below with a good short video.

And a song from Dabuh ....

...my music master!

I usually don't post Earth Wind and Fire.

Long story... but it's a great song.

And we may know by September 21st...

..if we have a busy hurricane season or not.

https://www.wfla.com/news/national/unusual-la-nina-may-be-forming-in-the-atlantic-almost-unprecedented/ 

Hurricane Andrew Memories

 

Hurricane Andrew is the topic online today.

I have a lot to say on Hurricane Andrew.

In 1992 we were watching Andrew.

Note graphic above....

Bryan Norcross put it there on Sunday.

Subtle but yes totally happened that way.

I'm starting with the picture of Bryan Norcross as you cannot seperate the two of them. Hurricane Andrew conjures up the image and voice of Bryan Norcross, the days before Andrew became a Hurricane back when it was a weak Tropical Storm. Then when it intensified and turned West.

During and After Andrew.

Bottom line for those of you who don't know. He went out on a limb and rather than just reading over the official info from NHC and NWS he talked on models and possibilities that showed one path might take it to South Florida vs the original trajectory taking it to the North up the coast. In doing that he helped many prepare and we are all aware of what he did staying with us the night of the storm on air even when they lost power at the studio and needed to go into a shelter at the studio he stayed on air with us taking questions and keeping people calm.

 As the last hurricane to threaten South Florida (before Andrew) had turned offshore after scaring Miami silly.... most people in Miami insisted it would turn "just like David" and while I was not there as I was living in LA... my family called. Something about my parents and brothers evacuating to Miami from Miami Beach and someone up on a ladder trying to put shutters on a window and my Grandma afraid he'd fall and kill himself. 

That said...........David turned away. 

Look how close David was when it turned.

People spent a fortune on preparations.

People boarded up their homes.

People evacuated North.

Then got hit my David

In crappy motels 

Not doing that again.

People were buying ice cream...

...before Hurricane Andrew.

"It'll turn away, like David"

They weren't in denial.

Just used to it.

They turn!

Andrew did not turn away.

By the way that red band to the NE of the donut eye.

Really slapped Miami Beach hard.. 

...just saying.

Random memories from Andrew. Not a lot of grammar here. Not writing a novel.

My best friend and partner in chasing Sharon called and said "put on Bryan" she was always sure Andrew was coming, now he seemed to imply it could. She had 72 filled up bottles of Publix Sodas rinsed, cleaned and filled with water. She literally was so sure we'd get a hurricane in 1992 that she saved every Publix Soda bottle to fill up with water. That said, she had no battery operated radio (awkward) and so I lent her one I bought for the shower (figured it was waterproof) and had a family staying by her from New York that was visiting. I gave her a lot of batteries. 

We went to the beach often before the storm... it was about 4 blocks from my house and 7 from hers.

We made one last run to the beach with my 5 year old daughter who already liked going to the beach before a storm and ran into the car refusing to get out. Sharon said "fine, she's coming with us" and we stood on the boardwalk one last time feeling the wind, the wild wind never ever abating. As if someone turned on a huge fan and it was on high and it ripped at your skirt, your hair and delighted my daughter who said it sounded like an airplane and put her arms out wide and ran in circles making sounds like an airplane. 

We watched tourists and people who lived on Collins Avenue in apartments walking over the bridge on 41st Street holding whatever they could take to shelters on their way to the "Park & Ride" buses for the Dolphins games that had been recruited for hurricane evacuations. Always amazed me this system worked so well, yet years later in Katrina I didn't hear anything about such a smooth evacuation. Maybe I missed it.

Surf was wild, though oddly I think there was more sea foam as Floyd passed us by, or the sea foam was blown all the way to Miami as the wind was really ripping. At some point we went home to our families and finished preparations and hunkered down.  

Andrew was a horrible storm, but it moved fast and steady and was abnormally dry in ways, though obviously the rain pounded the house like a million nails were on the roof and the howling of the hurricane wind ...did not drown out the rumbling sound of waves pounding the beach. Howling comes and goes, it's steady and then it slows and then it's steady again. In the lulls you could hear the pounding of the surf. It was wild. We were upstairs in a large closed area on mattresses as we were sure there would be flooding. 

There was no flooding, some puddles and debris everywhere. Trees uprooted, roots up in the air as the big ficus trees flip over on their side as they have shallow root systems. Trees laying on houses sometimes. No street lights for months and months. No stop signs for more than months and months. Talking Miami Beach, where we did not get the eye but we had so much debris and piles of debris outside our homes for months before anyone picked up the rotting, moldy debris.

Friends in Kendall where we'd normally go as they lived inland, lost most of their house. 

I have a daughter-in-law who spent Andrew in a bathtub at the age of 5 with her mother holding her and a mattress over her while her father sat holding the bathroom door shut in Palmetto near Homestead.

One of my sons is dating a girl who lived in the same area, her mother was pregnant with her older sister in a bathtub all thru Andrew with a mattress over her and the husband trying to protect her as the roof was giving way and home destroyed.

This is what happens when the hurricane does not turn away like David and Dorian and Fran and Floyd and the list goes on and on and currently in Miami there's a whole population that doesn't believe a hurricane won't turn away.

And this is my bottomline concern.

Hopefully not this year or next year but some year a hurricane similar to but different from Andrew will not turn away. Might not move as fast or wobble away from the dense metropolitan corridor and people will not believe it's going to hit until it's too late to pack up and evacuate or board up and get the proper supplies needed.

That's it.

Yes, it was wild and awesome to hear and sense the wind as you could feel the house shudder at times while lying on the floor and yet have to tell the worst part was after the hurricane. 

Nothing normal. No electric. No water. No cable TV no WIFI (nowdays) and the whole system and fabric of life is gone, down and there's no estimated time when it will be back. Debris goes out on the swail and looks like a barrier built for some sort of war in the old days. Everything rots in the hot, humid heat and if you have a home to sit in the dark or with a generator complaining you are better off than those who no longer have a house to sit in and all they can do is pick up the pieces, leave or rebuild. Many left, moving up to Broward as if they felt safer there but hey Broward County gets hit too. Hurricanes do not stop at county lines ...

So prepare

be aware

know they don't all turn away

one day...it'll be your turn 

to live the tale

to write about it

another day.

Something to think on...

BobbiStorm

It's very surreal, gotta tell you.

And as I've told others when giving a lecture...

"it's better to safely chase a hurricane with trained professionals than to have a hurricane chase you to your home ...."

Here's a link to a long but amazing video on Andrew in real time as it happened .....