1 Day Til Hurricane Season. Models Hint at Something.... EPAC Maybe.... 2024 Hurricane Season Forecast to Use Every Name... Valerie and William for Halloween? Hurricane Prep NOW!
A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Home in the Carolinas, back from Florida, I left the window open last night as it was cool enough to actually leave the window open. That said, the AC will be on later today. So it's 2 days to the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. That begs the question, "what do I write?" "what do I say that I haven't said?" and it's not easy as I think I've said it all regarding Hurricane Preparation for how to prepare for a hurricane, hunker down and get through it and for how to live after the power goes out and it takes 2 weeks to get it back on. I've talked on evacuation and when to evacuate and when to hunker down at home in a zone where you won't get storm surge and you can ride out a hurricane and have a generator for basic needs when the power goes out for 2 weeks in South Florida in August. Yes, you can move away from Florida to Kansas but I warn you they get Twisters and very hot summers also! After just being in Miami I'll add you can't go 2 minutes without AC unless you're in the shade near Biscayne Bay and there's a good breeze blowing.
So staying with the theme of the HOT WATER and looking especially at areas that are prone to June tropical storms and hurricanes as June is 2 days away! June this year may not be "too soon"and yet even with so many signals set to "GO" the tropics are not really, totally ready yet. We have fronts still on the mood and Twister Season doesn't want to end it seems. The flow of air moves in different directions this year and between shear and steering patterns it's hard to get an early Hurricane Alberto in June even when the water is HOT, but it could happen.
Currently tropics quiet.
Unfortunately Texas is not quiet weather wise!
Currently I'm on the way home from a preseason vacation in South Florida. Been watching the tropics, but barely been online as I had a busy schedule. And, when I wasn't involved in various events, I was doing some Hurricane History research with some materials I was able to look through and pick up to take home to continue research in Raleigh.
The water is hot across a wide area, and that's a problem. However, it takes more than HOT water to get hurricanes spinning. Shear across the basin or a strong, fast flow will knock the tops off of anything trying to develop. Generally the talk is the MJO is moving into position to possible give a kick to the start of the season in the near future. Time will tell. But, as I said in the post above, any convection that lingers over those hot waters in conjunction with a lowering of shear and with any possible pressure drops "could" help get things spinning. 85 degrees will definitely support tropical development in early June! So stay tuned, as June may not be too soon in 2024! As for areas to watch, currently this area is highlighted in the SW Carib and there is a large convective mass there currently.
Good morning from Savannah, one of my favorite cities, trying to write a fast, quick and cohesive blog post this morning. Above you see a satellite image for today May 22nd, 2024 which is 10 days away from the official starting date of the 2024 Hurricane Season. There is nothing out there today nor expected by the NHC for the next 7 days as per their 8 AM Tropical Weather Outlook AKA the TWO.
When I look at this image above, what I see in my mind is a misty, watercolored image of what thngs will look like later in the season... let's say sometime in August. It's a new age Modern Art suggestion of a large hurricane in the Caribbean, and to the North of it is the old, dying, decaying image of a one strong storm beginning to fall apart in Northern latitudes. To the right is another developing storm that will soon attain a name and be the next contender for hurricane status down the tropical road.
If forecasts verify this will be the type of Hurricane Season where you can look at satellite imagery and have an array of named storms on the maps, churning the waters and swirling about the face of the globe especially in the Atlantic Ocean and it's adjacent seas, gulfs and beautiful islands.