Cat 4 Dorian Playing Chicken With Florida... 2 Areas in the Atlantic Besides Dorian. Humberto May Be Out There.

West at 8.

Steady as Dorian goes.

Gained no latitude.

I show cords as some people still keep track.

I love the computer. I'm always online...

But... I wanted to do it this year.

You get a feel for things.

Details matter.

Dorian is a steady slow storm.

It was always between 12 and 14 MPH.

Slowed down from 13 to 8 MPH.

NHC calls for a stall for more than 24 hours.

I'm a bit skeptical but would be better.....

...then continuing West for sure.

Note currently the middle of the cone...

...remains over water. 

Comes close to Wilmington NC.

OBX sticking out there ever so...

Key Messages below.

Another view of that cone.

Wider view.

Watches and warnings below.

From Discussion I have some thoughts.

I want to point out a few things.

Low Shear environment for 12 - 24 hours.

Additional Strengthening possible.

That would make it a Cat 5 basically.

Eye wall replacement cycles expected.

After 12 to 72 hours Southernly Shear...

...gradual weakening.

NHC discussion.

"remain a dangerous hurricane"

Yeah we know.......

Note a pland found winds...

but they were high altitude.

NHC being conservative before upgrading to Cat 5

But watching recon data... close.

"nearly stationary over the NW Bahamas"

"36 to 48 hours"

After that time.... as I said last week.

Dorian forecast to find a "weakness in the ridge"

Read discussion above.

Note I do think there will be one.

But when is my question?

Again all about timing.

The NHC wants to remind you they watch models.

HWRF shifted Westward.

HWRF forecasts landfall.

NHC keeps the cone to the right of that.

On this forcast cone.

Check back at 5 AM.

GFS also did that.

You can check for yourself how accurate NHC is.

You check the next few coordinates ...

...with their forecast points below.

If.... Dorian isn't at 26.4N 76.3W...

they are off and the devil is in the details.

In this case the details are the coordinates.

You can see from a few days ago.

Dorian moved slow and steady.

No dramatic changes in direction or forward speed.

Yet now we hope and pray for the forecast turn.

As I have said watching the satellite loop gives me stress reminding me of Andrew, but it also reminds me of Floyd. I was on the phone for a while with my best friend and a good storm chasing buddy remembering when Floyd chased us and threatened to come ashore in Miami but the NHC insisted we didn't need to worry and it would pull right and miss Miami.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL081999_Floyd.pdf

You can read that report above.

We were at the beach late at night.

The waves were wild. Hotels rushing to finish preparing.

A bunch of wild kids broke onto the pier..

...were playing around enjoying themselves.

Other people here and there on the beach.

A very frothy wild beach, as in sea foam flying.

The roar of the storm out there so close...

We were kind of skeptical.

And Floyd did turn away.

Floyd did horrible flooding in NC as did Florence and Matthew.

Not much changes sadly.

And then there was David.

I wrote much about David.

Feel free to read recent blogs.

So can it turn the way the NHC forecast?

Sure it can.

Will it do so.

One last hurricane.

Georges. I've mentioned it before.

It was NOT a Cat 4 close to Florida.

That's because it refused to follow the NHC forecast.

Continuing WNW across every land mass in the Caribbean.

Despite constant discussion it would turn NW soon.

You can't even see the land masses here.

PR Hispaniola Cuba.

That's why it wasn't as strong near Florida.

Yet it intensified fast over the warm waters after Cuba.

A hurricane Key West will never forget.

Close up of that track below.

Just another example.

Of a steady slow hurricane doing it's thing.

My friend Sharon swears she remembers...

Bryan Norcross staring at it shaking his head.

And saying "a badly behaving hurricane"

Because it just refused to make that forecast turn.

Eventually it did... almost all do.

Somewhere the weakness in the ridge......

...or they reach the end of the strong High pushing them.

I'm not telling anyone with a Cat 4 Hurricane...

...going Cat 5 possibly soon.

To just go about life as if you'll safe.

And when I say safe I mean Carolinas too.

It's just too close to say for sure.

Forecast hopefully verifies.

I'm the one who believed in the ridge remember?

Stay vigilant indeed.

Don't eat your hurricane supplies at 3 am.

Worried on the HWRF.

Seems to be doing a good job.

And it's newest run according to the NHC...

is West of their track.

And shows a landfall.

So we follow NHC

But keep those shutters up.

Don't eat your snacks.

Don't waste gas.

Hang tight until it's made that turn.

Below is a screen shot from Mike's Facebook Live.

On Thursday or Friday.

Maybe Wednesday.

He was going through the models.

He showed it but reminded people it's 1 model run.

He reminds people to go by the NHC and the cone.

Scary image.

Below is a screen shot of Dorian's eye now.

Scary how similar it is to the old HWRF

One last thing.

Not dumping on NHC

They are working hard to get this right.

And hurricanes are tricky.

Especially Dorian ...

They were very off on the RI.

RI stands for Rapid Intensification.

Intensity forecasting is the holy grail ya know.

I say it all the time.

Dorian intensified way faster than expected.

The HWRF nailed it being so strong.

So close in... a bit further North of where it is now.

Again it intensified faster than most models showed.

If you get the intensity off ...

...something else is thrown off.

Usually such intense hurricanes are tough to forecast.

They can keep moving despite forecasts to stall.

They can make their own steering currents in ways.

I've seen weird thing happen.

So sit, wait, watch.

Don't let your guard down.

MY THOUGHTS ARE BELOW.

This was updated at 11 so it's long.

But we don't always have a Hurricane Dorian out there.

Elsewhere...

Dorian 8 PM Saturday Night

Miami Dade and Broward County out of the cone.

Raleigh in the cone.

What a difference a day makes.

Close up of where NHC puts current landfall.

Though landfall is a big question.

We can talk on that later.

Kind of nicks the coast.

Moving up towards Jacksonville.

Across the Cape.

This too will change.

It always changes this far out.

But good to remember.

Models from www.spaghettimodels.com

Always like to give credit where credit is due.

Mike does a great job compiling links people want.

Top model South Florida Management.

Bottom model Levi Cowan.

Incredible NRL map.

Inner red circles Hurricane force winds.

Outer circles Tropical Storm force winds.

Note TS winds now touching coast.

That's why watches were put up .. in case.

Miami and Tampa has no watches.

Just covering my bases.

Is Dorian stunning beautiful or what?

Yeah as long as Dorian stays off shore.

Dorian spared Hispaniola ....

...and Puerto Rico.

It developed into a Hurricane leaving Virgin Islands.

Maybe it doesn't like landfalls?

It's running out of time to spare the Bahamas.

Playing chicken with Florida.

And the East Coast.

Is Dorian a tease that likes to scare us?

Or is some place on the Eastern Coast going to feel it's wrath?

Here's another picture below.

Showing this one as it shows a lot.

1. Dorian. Great eye. Beautiful core.

2. Pretty purple is dry air, the ridge.

3. That congregation of convection across Florida.

South of the Carolinas.

Into th eGOM.

Complicating thingts.

4. Note next front top left digging into the purple.

5. Note Dorian reaches out.... sends it's convection away.

This has been a signature for days.

Convection flying off in the direction it want to go.

You don't always see that especially a Cat 4.

They often are more wound tight in a dark ocean.

It does have the buzz saw look.

But this continue ejection of convection is troubling.

NRL map below.

A wider cone always than the NHC

This is a page filled with links to use to study Dorian.

I use those links often ....

...been using it for years.

I use Earthnull often.

Love it.

Up close regular view.

Another view of another layer of the atmosphere.

Gotta thank Cranky here for tutoring me a bit on this one.

I'm a Water Vapor girl. I tend to live and die by the WV Loop.

When it comes to forecasting it's incredible.

More reliable in the long term than models.

I do and I'm always learning new tricks.

@crankywxguy

Follows you

What a difference a day makes indeed.

Great song comes to mind.

I love her.

Loved her father too.

Wondering if love is genetic??

I made a list to try and stay on track tonight while discussing the future track of Dorian. I had small mild asthma attack late in the day and actually used my inhaler so a bit hyper but hey not wheezing so that's good.. so be patient while I try and put my thoughts here and share my online diary with you and try to make a difference and hopefully helps somewhere here feel better, more informed on the storm or at least know someone cares as you face what could easily become a Category 5 Hurricane on South Florida's door. We will talk on the Carolinas later.

But do want to remind you there are other areas out there to remember. Then discussion.

High chances of becoming Humberto.

A high latitude tropical wave.

There's also a wave behind it that could develop.

Should have an invest tomorrow... 

I know they are busy with Dorian.

We all are.........

And that pesky Low Pressure below.

https://dabuh.com/ has a video up.

He spoke on this in detail days ago.

I linked to it in an earlier blog.

And it formed.

Could that have any small influence on Dorian?

Well the ULL + the Yellow Area Being Watched?

There's a whole lot of moist air to the West of Dorian.

IF Dorian does the crawl and stall I've spoke about...

...then it buys time to take the weakness in the ridge.

But it's all about timing.

The weakness has to be where Dorian can grab it.

Or Dorian takes it further West?

New model for the model lovers.

And if you don't follow Michael why not?

He's good.

https://twitter.com/AccuRayno

I was offline Saturday.

I'm off every Saturday.

I should write a blog about who I am.

Maybe soon.

I keep the Jewish Sabbath.

I take the day off... til after sunset.

Listened to his video recently.

He's good.

But he watches the Water Vapor as I do.

And he thinks for himself.

As I do.

And he is awesome with Hurricane History.

And that is my strength.

Good to hear him think out loud.

for those that missed this. My video on Dorian posted last night. I will likely have another update later today. Although my changes in thinking have not changed. UL peeling away from Dorian (& weak UH) will cause slow-down and bend toward the west https://t.co/y7Yu8plLFG

— Bernie Rayno (@AccuRayno) August 31, 2019

So understand the freaky part is......

....he basically said what's been in my head.

In truth no one is copying.

If you watch the water vapor loop.

Then watch the models.

Then look at the water vapor loop ..

...things either make sense or they don't.

Or there is something we don't know yet.

Or there is something we don't know yet.

So let's go back.

I used this to show my son why I thought...

... a weakness in the ridge could open.

It's an old image above.

Dry air in the GOM...

..but things change.

Note OLD image below.

I was talking to my son on Whatsapp.'

Pointing out all ridges have a weakness.

But would the weakness move East.

When Dorian slows in the Bahamas?

Now look.

As in like oh my goodness.

Dorian PUSHED that moisture further West.

Now there's tons's of moisture.

It's moving slowly.

How West does it get?

I keep a written track of coordinates.

Honest.

It's gone consistently 12 to 14 MPH

Almost forever.

Now it's moving 8 MPH

I do believe there will be a weakness in the ridge. Will Dorian SLOW to a CRAWL as I've been saying... maybe stall ... for how long if it does? Could it did WSW a bit for a while during this crawl or loop even (can't even go there) off the coast of Florida? That ULL has had a crazy impact on a big huge storm since it was near PR. That's a long time, it is that hard to say goodbye? 

That ULL is like some cute annoying guy that keeps flirting with you and running away and keeps grabbing your attention even when you have a plan and things to do. 

I did a long stand alone Hurricane History post.

For analog storms.

Donna on top tracing the high.

Note their steady track.

(space between dots)

tracing the high.

Finding a weakness.

Lower storm image David.

Didn't clear Florida.

Spared Miami but slammed into Florida.

Further North.

Now read my thoughts.

Many storms have gotten close to Florida and turned... Floyd would be one of them. David got too far West and spared Miami but slammed into the coast further North. Donna also wasn't sure what to do but slowly moved steady on and slid through the Keys, impacted Miami and then Tampa and then raced up the coast as models have shown Dorian will do eventually unless somehow we are spared such a track?

To lighten the mood a bit.

And because I don't think this is totally over.

And I rarely post pics of kids.

This is my grandson.

His father let him "help" ....

... put shutters up.

See the toy hammer?

We teach them young in Florida ...

...what to do in Hurricane Season.

He's a SIXTH generation Floridian...

I was taught young by my mother.

Never turn your back on a hurricane.

Until it is far to the North of you.

Further North than Betsy...that came back.

And as I am Alumni of FIU.

I'll agree with them.

Updating at 11 above.

I purposely post before that advisory comes in.

So you know my thoughts are mine.

Stay vigilant even though Miami isn't in the cone.

Remember Hurricane Charley....

It "wobbled" and hit Florida.

You read it.

Seems to have left a strong impression on someone there.

But always pay close attention to the NHC.

They remain closed.

As they should.

Updating after 11 PM.

Stay tuned, 

Bobbistorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

UPDATED 5 PM. Friday. MAJOR Hurricane Dorian CAT 3 - Watches In Bahamas & Will Go Up for Florida Soon. Questions Arise Now Officially Over Track & Timing. Ridge Weakness? Coastal Runner... GA SC NC VA up or GOM? Hurricane History Yellow Area Off Africa at 30% Yellow

Note how close the center of the cone is to the coast.

Will the next model run keep it there?

Or well what will they do?

Dorian is moving slowly.

Slowing down.

Trying to make the turn to the WNW.

That's forecast movement.

Again this is a 2 part game.

1... it makes the turn left. (W)

2.... it makes a sharp turn back right (N)

Note that's the NHC forecast.

I think the turns may be less sharp.

There is no wall anywhere.

And they have said the steering currents go weak.

I'm still concerned it crawls or stalls.

Going back you will remember I said that before.

Discussion from the NHC below.

It's not stellar but it explains their logic.

It's a Major Hurricane.

Possibly Cat 4 soon.

It's dangerous.

They put up warnings for Bahamas.

They waited for South Florida.

Probably because it's forecast to slow down.

He feels the ridge to the North is building.

I don't really agree.

It was but to my eye it seems weakening.

I could be wrong obviously.

We will see by tomorrow what's with the ridge.

HOWEVER... he says the steering currents will weaken.

I've said that for a while.

"given the collapse of the steering currents"

Dorian in theory moves slower... 

IMPT Part below.

As models are indicating a turn.

I guess the models don't think the ridge is that strong.. 

NHC adjusted the Cone's center line a bit to the right.

Right as in East.

Right as in much closer to the coastline.

Note NORTH of Port St. Lucie now.

That's a change.

And look how close it now is to the coast.

11 AM had it near Orlando.

That's the shift he's talking about.

One could infer from this image.

If the trend continues it could stay offshore.

They are NOT ready to go there yet.

Especially with a tricky slow Cat 3.

Read the bottom of the blog on Hurricane David.

Such a turn could happen.

It is always bad having a Cat 3 or 4 near your door.

But there's a difference with it lurking vs knocking.

The 11 PM will be interesting.

Rain warnings show where they expect Dorian to go.

They expect it to make the turn.

But where and when?

Current Cone? 

Time of arrival of winds.

Please go to NHC site and read their rules.

Note they have it up by me Tuesday evening.

Speaking of wind probabilities.

The top of the probabilities have moved up into NC.

Check it out.... 

Raleigh is in wind probs.

Low but imagine that will change.

Watches and warnings.

Note this image below.
This is my logic.
I'm watching the water vapor loop.

Dorian has been a whole lot of Drama!

Important note to regular readers.
And more so to new readers.

I'm offline from Friday at sundown to Saturday night around sundown as I keep the Jewish Sabbath that has those parameters. I usually leave a small TV on mute in the other room so I can check on the progress of the storm as I have most of my family in Miami and it allows me to breathe and relax more and I do much resting on my Sabbath. Tends to refresh me and Lord knows I'll need that rest this coming week as whether Dorian slams into Florida or cruises along the coast destroying beaches from WPB to Jax ...either way at some point it is forecast by long term models to go up the coast towards Georgia, Carolinas, VA impacting the MidAtlantic possibly, flirting with NJ/NY and threatening Long Island and possibly NE. We really can't say for sure as let's face the NHC still has low confidence beyond the third day. 

While away please remember to follow my favorite forecasters online.

www.spaghettimodels.com and follow him on Facebook sight at 9:19 AM every day.

www.hurricanecity.com  Jim Williams lives close to where Dorian could make landfall.

He is supposed to be live at some point and he did a great job chasing Michael last year.

www.crownweather.com he has a paid per view site but he also updates on Twitter. He is good. @crownweather

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp A fantastic App that is easy to use and has good info.

I'll be back on Saturday Night. 

The NHC is the bottom line always.

After the Florida drama the drama moves up the coast. The NC forecasters on TV tonight are telling us when it may come to us and many point out it might miss making a landfall in Florida but only time will tell.

Again before it makes that turn right it will turn sharper in theory to the left and scare many in South Florida and Central Florida. This is a dance as old as time when it comes to hurricanes coming up from the tropics towards the SE coast.

Stay tuned... keep watching. Keep reading if you didn't read the rest of the blog yet today.

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Stay calm, focused and safe! Do what you got to do and let me know how you managed and have to remind you we may do this again in a few weeks as two waves are leaving African and many models develop both of them. Sunday begins meteorological Fall and we move into Prime time in the Hurricane Season as we head towards the peak of the season. 

Major Hurricane.
Cat 3



Leaving this info above until the 5 PM comes in.
I can't wait to read the NHC discussion.
What will they say? Admit?
Change? Or hold the line?

Watch the WV Loop below.



See the dark greens blowing up close to SE coast.
Maybe afternoon Tstorms ?
Note it is as if the ridge is going to break.
Not all at once. Not that dramatic.
But moisture from Dorian is helping fill it in.
As moisture gets flung out ahead of it.

The ridge is getting a squeeze play.

From the SE coastal convection.

From the approaching front.

Hmnn.

Another loop.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-northamerica-

ntmicro-96-1-100-1&checked=latlon-map&colorbar=undefined

One more set of pics.

Before and after.

Also note Dorian's eye.

Very visible in the bottom image.

Category 3.

Beginning of the loop.

See the lilac pink.

Wide. Respectable ridge.

High pressure.

Below

Colors are fading...

...where did the strong ridge go?

I'm not saying there isn't a ridge.

I'm saying it's fading away.

Water vapor shows you the story.
Mild high pressure pushing Dorian NW
(light blue behind him in Carib)
Thin but solid High Pressure Ridge to NW.
(dark blue)
I'll show you what I mean.

Note how it moves down.
It's becoming a bit weak around SC/NC line.

Top image is an older image.

The bottom image is newer.

The high pressure IS there.

But it was darker blue before.

Thinner but still strong.

Devil is in the details.

There's also very inviting moisture near Florida.
Green bubbles... convection.

A very healthy Dorian below.
I always knew it would be photogenic.



Good picture.
Cranky posted it.
He's got good solid commentary.

That is a Cat 3.

Solid round red core.

Little eye turning it's orientation a bit.

Moving slowly all in all.

NW at 10 MPH

970 MB.

Updated cone at 5 PM and the blog.

Waiting to see also is Miami Dade County.

There is a debate on issuing evacuations.

They're waiting on the NHC

That's a lot of pressure on them.

MIMIC Loop Image.

Link to loop below

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=24hrs&anim=html5

Great predictive loop.

You see the dry air in blue over the Deep South.

The moist orange erodes the Eastern edge of the coast.

Below is a wave off of Africa.

Most likely our next Invest.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.

This blog is about the tropics.

It's topically tropical.

Remember how Dorian started small?

This wave starts big.

Below the NHC graphic from 2 PM.

Up to 30% on the 5 day.

We can talk on models later.

Models close it off.

Nuff said.

Note Dorian leans a bit more WNW above.
But it is currently going NW still.

NHC maintains the turn up the state.

Traces I95 more or less.

Subject to change at 5 PM...

Highlighting discussion below.

ULL moving down to Cuba.

As we talked about prevously.

Dorian can breathe better then.

Dorian should move WNW and then West.

Ridge, timing issues.

Dorian slows down.

Much uncertainty on 4th to 5th day.

Long duration wind event.

Long duration rain event.

Forecast to be 140 MPH.

Moving inland over Florida.

As always I remind you things change often.

Models adjust to changes in the environment.

The environment is fluid.

Dorian adjusts to the environment.

At 11 PM NHC position for Dorian Inland.

That will change a bit at 5 PM.

Port St. Lucie

Fort Pierce

Vero Beach 

NHC makes a sharp right turn.

Up closer here.

Note cone bulges a bit NW as Panhandle could be in play.

Very close up and person for you.

That's a hard turn they are showing.

And from the NHC interactive site...

This is a close up map.

Great site but traffic was intense.

Hard to get it working right.

Speaking of traffic...
If you are evacuating.
Know everyone North and West of you may be doing so.
Take extra food, water and hope you have extra gas.
Because it's going to be a mess.
I have to tell you that.
But everyone has to make that call for themselves.
Miami is to the South of this track.
That could change.
FLL more impacted.
WPB and BOCA strong impacts.

Unless over the next 2 days ...
...things change.
We can only hope and pray that happens.

I'll update around 5 PM.
Keep reading... lots of information.
Read slow and take it in.
Listen to the music.
Music relaxes us and that's good.

Wide view below.

Cone below that.

Spinning.

Showing you where it wants to go.

Cone shows you below.

Similar Cone.

Note at the last day it feels the ridge.....

Pulls North after landfall.

Could it feel the ridge sooner?

Yes. 

Will it?

Time will tell.

Follow the NHC advice.

Do what you got to do.

Wind probabilities have been kept the same.

They seem very sure.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/

MIATCDAT5+shtml/300854.shtml?

Grid from www.spaghettimodels.com

I don't want to show the timing graphic.

You can go to NHC and look at it.

The timing is in question.

And it's not the best advice.

When the NHC hoists watches and warnings.

Follow them it's that simple.

What point I want to make here is I have been saying for days that it was very possible the area just North of West Palm Beach could be the most logical place where Dorian would make landfall if the track and forecast maintained the same and no wrenches in the forecast showed up. I was and am wondering if it could track over or near part of the Lake. I've always had the feel it would scare all of South Florida but if Dorian finds any weakness in the ridge it would make a run for that weakness and try to pull more to the North and the Coastal Cruiser would become a real concern down the road as I have mentioned before and illustrate below talking on Hurricane Donna that I have mentioned numerous times in this blog of late. 

After doing a long study of Central Florida and nearby hurricanes it became even more clear that the stronger a hurricane is it tends to go further South as Jeanne and Frances did or it turns much like David did or slides North along the coast. Exceptions to rules always happen and Dorian could be that storm. Never say never as an old friend used to tell me all the time. 

AFTER FLORIDA..... it will most likely impact Georgia and the Carolinas and you wonder if it could get into the Gulf of Mexico and I can't rule that out. It's forecast to slow down and the steering currents are forecast to break down so the one thing I can tell you is that Dorian is a bit of a Drama Queen. People are going to hype this storm and say crazy things online and in your Whatsapp group... do not fall for it. Shake it off if you get scared and stick with the tried and true of who you trust and the NHC. Not Aunt Martha and not your neighbors who are telling you this story or that but those who have never let you down whether that's Mike or Jim from www.hurricanecity.com or Jim Cantore on TWC or Rob from www.crownweather.com or me and most of all..........the NHC!

Shake it off.

Do not panic!

Things can and will change.

Fantastic NRL map below.

The outer red circle is Tropical Storm Force Wind.

The inner circle Hurricane Force Wind.

As of 5 AM WPB could get Hurricane Force Winds.

Miami Tropical Storm Force Winds.

FLL a blend of both as it sits in between.

I really think Martin County is most likely to see Dorian.

Would it be crazy if Dorian did Martin County.

After hitting St. Martin in the Virgin Islands.

That just hit me and it could happen.

Something to think on while preparing.

A bit of Miami humor from Instagram.

The real issue so far with Dorian is this.

It doesn't really look like a Cat 2.

But recon says it is......

It looks good but not really great.

See the moisture to it's West.

Showing this numerous times.

It's the pieces of the puzzle.

Earthnull shows it well.

Looks very good on the main page.

Go down into the atmosphere ...

...you see the Upper Mid Level Low above.

That has been stuck like glue to Dorian.

Trying to move away.

NHC mentioned it in Discussion today.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/

MIATCDAT5+shtml/300854.shtml

Discussion highlights.

Now the NHC mentions what I have mentioned before.

And we just have to watch and wait.

Just ONE point here again.

Briefly Dorian could a bit South of West.

It would most likely be short term movement.

Depending on it's forward speed.

If it does dip it should pull North eventually.

And make landfall.

I95 Storm?

Turns and goes up the coast?

Or it keeps going West ....

....til a real weakness opens up

The NHC Cone is Sound

But options are on the table.

Watch that ULL and see if it pulls away.

Dorian could follow it ...

...or then finally breathe.

Become a Cat 3 

And do it's own thing.

Some storms to keep in mind regarding Hurricane History. Dorian is not exactly any one of those storms but blend parts of them together and you get a picture on what Dorian is up to... 

1. Donna. I have said numerous times in this blog for months that the pattern this year begs for a storm to follow previous tracks but being stronger and getting closer to Florida and then riding the coast much like Donna. While Dorian in late August going into September (Donna time) is threatening Florida with the landfall of a Major Hurricane out of the East there is the chance that the slow movement of Dorian down the road will allow the timing on the ridge's movement and the next front and that will allow Dorian to find a weakness in the ridge somewhere and more so move towards that feature that today on satellite imagery is way bigger than Dorian.

This tweet from earlier.

You see Dorian top right.

An upper/mid level low (small red) on it's right side.

Ridge top left grid.

BIG BLOB top right moving SW towards Dorian.

More on how the ULL stuck like glue to Dorian.

Attached like a barnacle refusing to leave.

1 image above shows it all.

Florida is in between the two.

Ridge to the North.

How fast does Dorian move?

Timing is everything.

After Florida the East Coast is in  play.

Like Donna, different but similar.

Another D name bites the dust.

https://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2019/08/mid-week-look-at-tropics-still-looking.html

While watching the GOM.....

.... I was reminding you about Donna.

And the pattern setting up for later this season.

Now we have Dorian.

More hurricanes will form....

...so this could seriously continue.

Read previous blog on historic patterns.

Jeanne made landfall 3 weeks after Frances.

The landfalls were only 2 miles apart.

I don't mean to scare you.

I mean to educate you and advise you.

We are not even into September.

More Atlantic cruisers will come.

Caribbean cruisers will come as well later.

This graphic above showed the 2019 pattern.

Not much changed.

Except stronger hurricane.

Closer in track.

In April I brought up Donna. It was apparent we were going to have strong waves that swim far and develop close in and I've been concerned on this coastal runner scenario.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2019/04/

Again track of Hurricane Donna.

2. David. Hurricane David has a very similar track and again a D storm like Dorian. D storms to Florida are like F storms are to North Carolina. Let's begin with the track below for David and remember I have used it numerous times as an analog for Dorian.

Note even Hispaniola didn't break it's stride.

Again I was in California that year.

My brothers were called me...

... giving me play by play on the drama.

Daddy on a ladder.

My mother telling him to get off the ladder.

Packing up and evacuating from Miami Beach.

So using my brother Jay's own words here.

He's a good writer and no one says it better.

Woke up to messages on Facebook.

He's in Greece hours ahead of me.

Miami kids root for hurricanes.

Well it happens.

Then we grow up and worry on them.

His book is shown below.

Yes, writing runs in the family.

Creativity and Arts of all kinds.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/1980911312

Could Dorian scare us all and then slide away?

I sure hope so.

But note David did real damage up the coast.

Miami was spared.

It all depends on the forward speed and timing.

Models offer many solutions.

History offers many solutions.

Now it's up to Dorian.

And if Dorian does a Donna....

WHERE and WHEN does Donna turn North?

Current cone.

3. Betsy. Back in 2012 I put this link up in my blog regarding a study that was done of Betsy and it's many stages. Betsy ran in tandem with a similar sort of pesky low and when that changed, Betsy intensified and never looked back. But Betsy changed directions often on it's way to South Florida. Betsy went NW, moved back SW then turned W before finally feeling the weakness and heading towards Louisiana and on inland. Different set up, different storm but often hurricanes run in tandem with a feature that seems to stalk it while sometimes helping guide it, intensifying it and hindering it's intensification. 

https://books.google.com/books/about/A_Synoptic_Case_

Study_of_the_Incipient_S.html?id=PSZfHAAACAAJ

One of the best studies ever of a hurricane done by a master researcher. Oh snap it's out of print. Might be available somewhere. The Head Librarian at the NHC (who was really sweet) climbed up onto a high ladder and looking for that paper and made copies and bound it for me in a green binder so I could take it home. I've been very blessed by help over the years researching and collaborating on historical research by good friends at the NHC. 

Track for Betsy.

Betsy stalled and turned often.

Oddly take out the changes in direction.

It went to where it began going.

Weak steering currents become forecaster's problems.

4. Jeanne was a similar track to Betsy's track except that Jeanne much like David slammed into Hispaniola and though it broke it's stride it stalled and looped and came back stronger, turned West under a ridge and slammed into Florida three weeks after Frances hitting the same beach about 2 miles away from the previous landfall. I used Jeanne in my previous discussion on hurricanes that made landfall North of Miami and closer to the Central Florida Coast. Hutchinson Island to be exact and Dorian may come close to there as well.

Jeanne was the cat that came back........

...then crawled up the Appalachian Trail.

Current Track for Dorian.

Map of where Jeanne made landfall.

 5. Matthew was a similar storm to David in that it was forecast to make landfall and then it didn't make landfall in Florida slid up the coast and couldn't pull out before hitting South Carolina and impacting North Carolina and parts of Virginia. Ignore it coming out of the Caribbean but please remember that in late September going into October as we may be discussing it again...

Does Dorian go onto land and then turn up I95?

Or does it turn just offshore?

Timing is everything.

6. 1928 Hurricane that I mentioned yesterday and that's the last one I'll mention here today. It's relevant and it did make landfall very close to where Dorian could make landfall and it kept going vs sliding up the coast.  Very similar track, similar time of year though later (I've said before this year is running about 3 weeks ahead of schedule to my eye) and here we are with the threat of a serious, Major Hurricane doing a very similar track if it doesn't snap back more the way David did as mentioned earlier. It's all about the timing. An incredible book to read it IS available on Amazon or any online bookstore. Tragic storm and a very rare hit that far North going over the Lake.

So where does that leave us now? 

The cone will change that I can promise you, but not in a big way as the NHC adjusts cautiously and carefully. The trend is everything. Do not get lost in models that flip back and forth though as they trend one way more than another that is your guide but the NHC is your bottom line for actual info regarding the hurricane and they best know how to utilize the models knowing which runs to discount and which runs to weigh more heavily on while putting out their product. As the Virgin Islands know they are not perfect, but they come close in the end. Stick with them. 

That said it's good to follow people online who have never steered you wrong nor given bad advice. As Mike says on Facebook Live and on www.spaghettimodels.com follow the NHC and listen to what they say even though we like to shoot the tropical breeze on Twitter and talk online at the end of the day the NHC is the official bottom line.

Let's review their most recent update at eight and yes that rhymes. NRL cone below. Why is the TWC in Vero Beach? First of all they are setting up there and from there they will move North or South up and down the coast adjusting to where Dorian ends up going. I was at Haulover chasing with a friend and the TWC left to go to Naples as it was crossing the state; a weak storm but one on the move and when it moves TWC moves with it and if Vero Beach is North (currently) of landfall it gets the storm surge and the strongest winds aside from the eye and it could get the eye. A lot of places could be possible landfalls as it's forecast to move slowly and feel a weakness in the ridge as I've said for a while now. Review last night's 11 PM update and scroll down to what I said earlier in the day. 

I'll update later today at the top.

Or I'll make a stand alone blog.

Do what you got to do.

Should you evacuate?

Should you stay or should you go?

If you got the money honey....

....if you own a private plane?

My brother Jay sent me this song also.

I'll be here blogging.

In truth it's better to find safety inland...

...in a well built structure with shutters.

And hunker down.

And hopefully ... 

....you will wake up and there will blue skies.

And you will find out Dorian turned ..

But prepare for the worst...

...hope for the best.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Follow me there for real time updates.

And as always.... 

Let this be your mantra.

You need to calm down....

By the way if you drink ...

... that's not a bad drink for a hurricane.

Check out the models.

You may need a drink.

Or chocolate.

Whatever works for you.

Go to ABC Liquor Stores.

Mike's supporter and tell them..

Thanks and that Mike...

Drunk Donkey sent you ;)