Cat 4 Dorian Playing Chicken With Florida... 2 Areas in the Atlantic Besides Dorian. Humberto May Be Out There.
West at 8.
Steady as Dorian goes.
Gained no latitude.
I show cords as some people still keep track.
I love the computer. I'm always online...
But... I wanted to do it this year.
You get a feel for things.
Details matter.
Dorian is a steady slow storm.
It was always between 12 and 14 MPH.
Slowed down from 13 to 8 MPH.
NHC calls for a stall for more than 24 hours.
I'm a bit skeptical but would be better.....
...then continuing West for sure.
Note currently the middle of the cone...
...remains over water.
Comes close to Wilmington NC.
OBX sticking out there ever so...
Key Messages below.
Another view of that cone.
Wider view.
Watches and warnings below.
From Discussion I have some thoughts.
I want to point out a few things.
Low Shear environment for 12 - 24 hours.
Additional Strengthening possible.
That would make it a Cat 5 basically.
Eye wall replacement cycles expected.
After 12 to 72 hours Southernly Shear...
...gradual weakening.
NHC discussion.
"remain a dangerous hurricane"
Yeah we know.......
Note a pland found winds...
but they were high altitude.
NHC being conservative before upgrading to Cat 5
But watching recon data... close.
"nearly stationary over the NW Bahamas"
"36 to 48 hours"
After that time.... as I said last week.
Dorian forecast to find a "weakness in the ridge"
Read discussion above.
Note I do think there will be one.
But when is my question?
Again all about timing.
The NHC wants to remind you they watch models.
HWRF shifted Westward.
HWRF forecasts landfall.
NHC keeps the cone to the right of that.
On this forcast cone.
Check back at 5 AM.
GFS also did that.
You can check for yourself how accurate NHC is.
You check the next few coordinates ...
...with their forecast points below.
If.... Dorian isn't at 26.4N 76.3W...
they are off and the devil is in the details.
In this case the details are the coordinates.
You can see from a few days ago.
Dorian moved slow and steady.
No dramatic changes in direction or forward speed.
Yet now we hope and pray for the forecast turn.
As I have said watching the satellite loop gives me stress reminding me of Andrew, but it also reminds me of Floyd. I was on the phone for a while with my best friend and a good storm chasing buddy remembering when Floyd chased us and threatened to come ashore in Miami but the NHC insisted we didn't need to worry and it would pull right and miss Miami.
You can read that report above.
We were at the beach late at night.
The waves were wild. Hotels rushing to finish preparing.
A bunch of wild kids broke onto the pier..
...were playing around enjoying themselves.
Other people here and there on the beach.
A very frothy wild beach, as in sea foam flying.
The roar of the storm out there so close...
We were kind of skeptical.
And Floyd did turn away.
Floyd did horrible flooding in NC as did Florence and Matthew.
Not much changes sadly.
And then there was David.
I wrote much about David.
Feel free to read recent blogs.
So can it turn the way the NHC forecast?
Sure it can.
Will it do so.
One last hurricane.
Georges. I've mentioned it before.
It was NOT a Cat 4 close to Florida.
That's because it refused to follow the NHC forecast.
Continuing WNW across every land mass in the Caribbean.
Despite constant discussion it would turn NW soon.
You can't even see the land masses here.
PR Hispaniola Cuba.
That's why it wasn't as strong near Florida.
Yet it intensified fast over the warm waters after Cuba.
A hurricane Key West will never forget.
Close up of that track below.
Just another example.
Of a steady slow hurricane doing it's thing.
My friend Sharon swears she remembers...
Bryan Norcross staring at it shaking his head.
And saying "a badly behaving hurricane"
Because it just refused to make that forecast turn.
Eventually it did... almost all do.
Somewhere the weakness in the ridge......
...or they reach the end of the strong High pushing them.
I'm not telling anyone with a Cat 4 Hurricane...
...going Cat 5 possibly soon.
To just go about life as if you'll safe.
And when I say safe I mean Carolinas too.
It's just too close to say for sure.
Forecast hopefully verifies.
I'm the one who believed in the ridge remember?
Stay vigilant indeed.
Don't eat your hurricane supplies at 3 am.
Worried on the HWRF.
Seems to be doing a good job.
And it's newest run according to the NHC...
is West of their track.
And shows a landfall.
So we follow NHC
But keep those shutters up.
Don't eat your snacks.
Don't waste gas.
Hang tight until it's made that turn.
Below is a screen shot from Mike's Facebook Live.
On Thursday or Friday.
Maybe Wednesday.
He was going through the models.
He showed it but reminded people it's 1 model run.
He reminds people to go by the NHC and the cone.
Scary image.
Below is a screen shot of Dorian's eye now.
Scary how similar it is to the old HWRF
One last thing.
Not dumping on NHC
They are working hard to get this right.
And hurricanes are tricky.
Especially Dorian ...
They were very off on the RI.
RI stands for Rapid Intensification.
Intensity forecasting is the holy grail ya know.
I say it all the time.
Dorian intensified way faster than expected.
The HWRF nailed it being so strong.
So close in... a bit further North of where it is now.
Again it intensified faster than most models showed.
If you get the intensity off ...
...something else is thrown off.
Usually such intense hurricanes are tough to forecast.
They can keep moving despite forecasts to stall.
They can make their own steering currents in ways.
I've seen weird thing happen.
So sit, wait, watch.
Don't let your guard down.
MY THOUGHTS ARE BELOW.
This was updated at 11 so it's long.
But we don't always have a Hurricane Dorian out there.
Elsewhere...
Dorian 8 PM Saturday Night
Miami Dade and Broward County out of the cone.
Raleigh in the cone.
What a difference a day makes.
Close up of where NHC puts current landfall.
Though landfall is a big question.
We can talk on that later.
Kind of nicks the coast.
Moving up towards Jacksonville.
Across the Cape.
This too will change.
It always changes this far out.
But good to remember.
Models from www.spaghettimodels.com
Always like to give credit where credit is due.
Mike does a great job compiling links people want.
Top model South Florida Management.
Bottom model Levi Cowan.
Incredible NRL map.
Inner red circles Hurricane force winds.
Outer circles Tropical Storm force winds.
Note TS winds now touching coast.
That's why watches were put up .. in case.
Miami and Tampa has no watches.
Just covering my bases.
Is Dorian stunning beautiful or what?
Yeah as long as Dorian stays off shore.
Dorian spared Hispaniola ....
...and Puerto Rico.
It developed into a Hurricane leaving Virgin Islands.
Maybe it doesn't like landfalls?
It's running out of time to spare the Bahamas.
Playing chicken with Florida.
And the East Coast.
Is Dorian a tease that likes to scare us?
Or is some place on the Eastern Coast going to feel it's wrath?
Here's another picture below.
Showing this one as it shows a lot.
1. Dorian. Great eye. Beautiful core.
2. Pretty purple is dry air, the ridge.
3. That congregation of convection across Florida.
South of the Carolinas.
Into th eGOM.
Complicating thingts.
4. Note next front top left digging into the purple.
5. Note Dorian reaches out.... sends it's convection away.
This has been a signature for days.
Convection flying off in the direction it want to go.
You don't always see that especially a Cat 4.
They often are more wound tight in a dark ocean.
It does have the buzz saw look.
But this continue ejection of convection is troubling.
NRL map below.
A wider cone always than the NHC
This is a page filled with links to use to study Dorian.
I use those links often ....
...been using it for years.
I use Earthnull often.
Love it.
Up close regular view.
Another view of another layer of the atmosphere.
Gotta thank Cranky here for tutoring me a bit on this one.
I'm a Water Vapor girl. I tend to live and die by the WV Loop.
When it comes to forecasting it's incredible.
More reliable in the long term than models.
I do and I'm always learning new tricks.
What a difference a day makes indeed.
Great song comes to mind.
I love her.
Loved her father too.
Wondering if love is genetic??
I made a list to try and stay on track tonight while discussing the future track of Dorian. I had small mild asthma attack late in the day and actually used my inhaler so a bit hyper but hey not wheezing so that's good.. so be patient while I try and put my thoughts here and share my online diary with you and try to make a difference and hopefully helps somewhere here feel better, more informed on the storm or at least know someone cares as you face what could easily become a Category 5 Hurricane on South Florida's door. We will talk on the Carolinas later.
But do want to remind you there are other areas out there to remember. Then discussion.
High chances of becoming Humberto.
A high latitude tropical wave.
There's also a wave behind it that could develop.
Should have an invest tomorrow...
I know they are busy with Dorian.
We all are.........
And that pesky Low Pressure below.
https://dabuh.com/ has a video up.
He spoke on this in detail days ago.
I linked to it in an earlier blog.
And it formed.
Could that have any small influence on Dorian?
Well the ULL + the Yellow Area Being Watched?
There's a whole lot of moist air to the West of Dorian.
IF Dorian does the crawl and stall I've spoke about...
...then it buys time to take the weakness in the ridge.
But it's all about timing.
The weakness has to be where Dorian can grab it.
Or Dorian takes it further West?
New model for the model lovers.
And if you don't follow Michael why not?
He's good.
I was offline Saturday.
I'm off every Saturday.
I should write a blog about who I am.
Maybe soon.
I keep the Jewish Sabbath.
I take the day off... til after sunset.
Listened to his video recently.
He's good.
But he watches the Water Vapor as I do.
And he thinks for himself.
As I do.
And he is awesome with Hurricane History.
And that is my strength.
Good to hear him think out loud.
for those that missed this. My video on Dorian posted last night. I will likely have another update later today. Although my changes in thinking have not changed. UL peeling away from Dorian (& weak UH) will cause slow-down and bend toward the west https://t.co/y7Yu8plLFG— Bernie Rayno (@AccuRayno) August 31, 2019
So understand the freaky part is......
....he basically said what's been in my head.
In truth no one is copying.
If you watch the water vapor loop.
Then watch the models.
Then look at the water vapor loop ..
...things either make sense or they don't.
Or there is something we don't know yet.
Or there is something we don't know yet.
So let's go back.
I used this to show my son why I thought...
... a weakness in the ridge could open.
It's an old image above.
Dry air in the GOM...
..but things change.
Note OLD image below.
I was talking to my son on Whatsapp.'
Pointing out all ridges have a weakness.
But would the weakness move East.
When Dorian slows in the Bahamas?
Now look.
As in like oh my goodness.
Dorian PUSHED that moisture further West.
Now there's tons's of moisture.
It's moving slowly.
How West does it get?
I keep a written track of coordinates.
Honest.
It's gone consistently 12 to 14 MPH
Almost forever.
Now it's moving 8 MPH
I do believe there will be a weakness in the ridge. Will Dorian SLOW to a CRAWL as I've been saying... maybe stall ... for how long if it does? Could it did WSW a bit for a while during this crawl or loop even (can't even go there) off the coast of Florida? That ULL has had a crazy impact on a big huge storm since it was near PR. That's a long time, it is that hard to say goodbye?
That ULL is like some cute annoying guy that keeps flirting with you and running away and keeps grabbing your attention even when you have a plan and things to do.
I did a long stand alone Hurricane History post.
For analog storms.
Donna on top tracing the high.
Note their steady track.
(space between dots)
tracing the high.
Finding a weakness.
Lower storm image David.
Didn't clear Florida.
Spared Miami but slammed into Florida.
Further North.
Now read my thoughts.
Many storms have gotten close to Florida and turned... Floyd would be one of them. David got too far West and spared Miami but slammed into the coast further North. Donna also wasn't sure what to do but slowly moved steady on and slid through the Keys, impacted Miami and then Tampa and then raced up the coast as models have shown Dorian will do eventually unless somehow we are spared such a track?
To lighten the mood a bit.
And because I don't think this is totally over.
And I rarely post pics of kids.
This is my grandson.
His father let him "help" ....
... put shutters up.
See the toy hammer?
We teach them young in Florida ...
...what to do in Hurricane Season.
He's a SIXTH generation Floridian...
I was taught young by my mother.
Never turn your back on a hurricane.
Until it is far to the North of you.
Further North than Betsy...that came back.
And as I am Alumni of FIU.
I'll agree with them.
Updating at 11 above.
I purposely post before that advisory comes in.
So you know my thoughts are mine.
Stay vigilant even though Miami isn't in the cone.
Remember Hurricane Charley....
It "wobbled" and hit Florida.
You read it.
Seems to have left a strong impression on someone there.
But always pay close attention to the NHC.
They remain closed.
As they should.
Updating after 11 PM.
Stay tuned,
Bobbistorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:03 PM
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