NHC's New Improved Tropical Weather Outlook to Go from 2 Days to 5 Days... Not much else happening

There is a wave by Africa....



There is also............. a lot of very dry Saharan Dust and it would be a minor meteorological miracle if this wave formed. But ... a lot of people are watching it...

This is tropically depressing me very much...............very much........



It just ate the earlier wave around 30 for lunch...didn't even burp... still hungry for more waves...

This is the big news of the day, but not breaking news as we have been waiting to see how this plays out in reality. NHC is changing the way they are doing things. Picked an easy week... "no tropical development until next to forever" considering the dry dust is eating the waves, the EPAC is spitting out tropical storms as if the are water melon seeds on a hot summer day.

You are subscribed to NHC Tropical Weather Outlook (Atlantic, all versions) for NOAA's National Weather Service. GovDelivery provides this service using unaltered NOAA/NWS products. Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 07/31/2013 01:34 PM EDT 000 ABNT20 KNHC 311734 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2013 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BEGINNING TOMORROW WITH THE 8 AM EDT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL BEGIN INCLUDING INFORMATION ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE FOLLOWING FIVE DAYS. THIS INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED PROBABILISTICALLY IN 10-PERCENT INCREMENTS...AND WILL SUPPLEMENT THE 48-HOUR PROBABILISTIC FORMATION POTENTIAL ALREADY PROVIDED. THE CURRENT GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK THAT SHOWS THE 48-HOUR GENESIS POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. NHC IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING A FIVE-DAY GENESIS POTENTIAL GRAPHIC THAT MAY BECOME AVAILABLE LATER IN THE SEASON. $$ FORECASTER AVILA http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjixJH0dfmU Listening to Sting, for a change.. just so you know..  This means they are moving from now until five days from now.  It's interesting I just think it's sort of extreme to go from 2 to 5.. But... we will see...  http://www.nbcmiami.com/news/National-Hurricane-Center-Expanding-Tropical-Weather-Outlook-to-5-Days-217753431.html Have to see how it will play out in real time. Starts tomorrow.  State of the Tropics going into August 2013.........(changed my font...do you like it??) Annoying tease of a system Dorian turned out to be. Every day he spins up screaming, "Look at ME" and then .. He runs away. Want to hear a funny scenario.. not saying this could happen.. but wouldn't it be ironic and funny..sort of. He gets caught up in that big Upper Level Low West of Florida... energy transfers and his moisture .. .....goes zoom zoom zoom north east of Daytona (yeah TD 4 Ghost) and then merges with the rain... ....of the coast of the Carolinas and sort of as he appeared..POOF... and the NHC has to sit around.. .....and debate... whether he is still Dorian or Erin or a pissant sub-tropical low and they decide.. ...............NO NO NO .... we won't issue advisories ... just a silly scenario..  Maybe they could issue ANOTHER number to him for a new Invest...one from the twilight zone. Actually, that ULL is really kind of sexy... look how it folds into itself, spins..sort of wild. I can see how Dorian was attracted to it..  So...........if this works below good, but truth is this is the time of year when storm chasers would do anything for  a storm.. and I do mean anything.......and in a week or two.. or 10 days something will pop up after. Some would actually eat their young.. I have a lot of young ones...   luckily I'm just popping sweet cherries into my mouth... one after another... red, gold, dark, sweet... healthy and better than shots of Honey Bourbon you know what I mean? The Addams Family of Epac storms stops raining on my Atlantic Hurricane Parade...  I Weak support for African wave to develop.. maybe... Wouldn't hold my breath on that but you never know..keep watching.  Tomorrow is  August 1st... and it's a new ball game for the NHC.. So play ball! Besos Bobbi You can keep watching the remnants of Dorian... got nothing much else to do..  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJb5RvAs4BI

Dorian ... Psychoanalysis of a Tropical Wave

This is the loop that is your daily crystal ball or at least today's crystal ball!

Note where the blob is that was once a tightly wound Tropical Storm. Somewhere off the North Coat of Puerto Rico it lost it's roll. Possibly a curse by a shaman there to STOP THE RAIN in PR...  but it went FLAT...and it's now a wave trying to reform back into a Tropical Storm.

According to a WXR genius I know he said....it will take all the energy it has to form into a storm and more likely will fall apart so our wave is like many people we know.. in  bad marriages, bad jobs, lives that are not in concert with their early hopes and goals... the dreams they had when young. But, they are afraid of losing everything so they don't make changes. They don't open up their hand and demand something better.

They roll on... continue on in a state of not quite mediocrity but not quite what they dreamed of...

They are there... living...doing...enjoying life and wondering how they can push it that next step to get to the place they wanted to be.

Intensifying for a wave takes a lot of things... and it's not that easy or we would have 25 hurricanes every year ..duh.

Sort of like when they want to turn... they can either slow down and turn or keep rolling west. Or if a Category one wants to become a Category three... it slows down, slowly intensifies (usually) and often changes direction.

What happened that Andrew found his groove and the will to ramp it up and decide "NO HE DIDN'T WANT TO REPLAY HUGO" he wanted to be Andrew?

Dorian is not Andrew.

Andrew is THE lesson...the one in the lesson books that Waves are supposed to take in Motivation 101.



There Andrew was with early dreams and people in Miami going "what kind of stupid name is Andrew for a storm?" and Andrew may have heard them far away at 45W and 15N give or take. He struggled along feeling mopey and unloved and decided he wasn't up to doing land and taking on the islands...  He went UP and OVER and somewhere he heard a meteorologist in Miami say "he may just go out to sea if he doesn't get picked up by that front and go to Carolina" and he moped some  more. He didn't want to to go out to sea just yet.  Sometime on the 22nd of August while the forecasters were putting out plots for a path between Jacksonville and Charleston... or the Outer Banks.. Andrew got angry and said "NOOOO!!!"

And, Andrew decided "NOOOOOOO, I don't want to go quietly into the night or make landfall as a dreaded weak tropical storm.. I want to be a HURRICANE!! I want to go to MIAMI and NEW ORLEANS and... I WANT A LIFE!!!!"

And, sooner than you could say abracadabra... he decided to make a turn East...and he intensified rather fast and the next thing you knew he was in the History Books!!!

Something changed.... and we can explain what weakens a storm and how a storm strengthens and after the fact how a steering current changed suddenly ... but... in the end it's amazingly up to the Wave or the Tropical Storm to decide to be more and make that effort. Most don't. Some do. Dorian is already in the history books for the early July formation and making it across the ocean as a defineable entity.

Now...what?

Keep watching this loop...because it tells the story better than any random image or loop. Every day he dies down, every night he spins up.

Katrina did it too... a weak wave of a messy batch of convection finally formed off the coast of Florida... and did crazy odd things and then suddenly ...WHAM it found it's Destiny..



Thousands and Tens of Thousands and more of waves never make it as far as Dorian.. they never form, they simply swim along with the flow hoping that flow will take them some place they wanted to go.

Dorian is famous in his own right.

Will he be one of the few who suddenly changed history? Probably not. Though in his way he did, his track is now going to be figured into future models and probabilities as a named storm off the Cape Verde Islands in July that traveled westward this far.

Keep watching the top loop. If you a round ball forming ..a twist in the ball... a spinning up...then something is happening.

I'll be back later.. Going shopping.
And, you know what that means...

Besos Bobbi

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJEFUGhPs3I (beyonce...)

4PM Monday, Update on Remnants of Dorian... Down to 30% Orange Circle... Watching & SW Carib..should we be watching?

Wondering on what is going on down in the SW Caribbean... clinging to the coast where it's been flaring up and down all day in the same way as Dorian's remnants have been doing...

Something to watch.. maybe... sort of calling my name...

Back to Dorian AKA 91L

Is the above image.....

A) SWIRL? 

B) BLOB?

C) Tropical Disturbance (catch all phrase for tropical weather not ready for prime time)

D) Tropical Depression

E) Tropical Storm DORIAN Again (rhymes)

or

F) ALL OF THE ABOVE

G) None of the above

H) I don't know

I) I don't care

J) Is it 5 O' Clock Somewhere?

The track for whatever the above system is... Place your bets.... keep watching. Discussion this afternoon is the same as this morning...

Newest models show these possible tracks....

The Navy Site has a new grid up... a sign of things to come or a test run or... ???

Besos Bobbi

Back later......... please read the previous post for more information on steering currents and pluses and minuses for Dorian's Rebirth.

Chasing Thunderstorms... Cantore in Flossie & Dorian in Atlantic

A REALITY CHECK....  2 Images Side By Side of Flossie and of "Ex" Dorian

Central Pacific on the LEFT.... West Atlantic on the RIGHT....
Small red dot is Flossie... Bigger Red Blob is the remnants of Dorian..
I pieced that myself...

Where's the Storm we need to track?

Now, let's take them one by one..
FIRST... let's start with the Atlantic Basin. 40% Orange Circle.....





In the Pacific ... on the beautiful island of Hawaii ...Jim Cantore is waiting to "chase" Flossie.



As my youngest son would say... "why are we naming thunderstorms??"

Okay, he's a little judgemental... he's 18. And, he's raised in Miami and played in the eye of a Hurricane and he can tell the difference between a hurricane and the remnants of a Tropical Storm...   it WAS a Tropical Storm and officially still is... so keep waiting Jim... cause you are going to get as much surf in your face there as you did from Irene in Naples and we know how that worked out...

But..........there will be beautiful pictures of beaches and Hawaii and that IS "tropical" and there will be rain and the surf will be UP because Flossie has pushed surf along with her all the way from the coast of Mexico. The islands were survive ...all of them. Hope Hawaii 5-0 can get some good footage from this for next season. There WILL be a next season ... unlike BURN NOTICE that is trying to bore us to death this season so we won't miss the show so much when it's over.............

And, WHY someone tell me do they keep showing coconut palms in the background of Graceland shots... there are NO coconut palms in Malibu or West LA so where are they filming some of those shots I keep wondering? My tropically bored mind wants to know..   Then again for my own mental health I am forbidden to look at IMDB so someone will have to send me the information... or not.

Let's look closer at Dorian on the IR.



On the Visible... Close up and personal and BY THE WAY...the Floater is back to being DORIAN

See.... Dorian? No more Invest 91 or 93 or 94 or more...




Dear Jim..

Enjoy your tropical vacation and enjoy whatever wind and rain you get.. Wishing I was there. Even in a weak, mild, remnants of Tropical Storm it's still better than being in Atlanta!

Love Bobbi

Song to loop by... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVLfzYkM6Lo (it's a riddle, got to click to know..)



Whose playing who? Whose cheating who? Listening to Alan Jackson this morning while watching loops.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2i91aCoOKw

"something you don't understand" "whose cheating who? whose being true? who doesn't even care anymore?"

Love Alan Jackson...

So............  when we get back to reality and we are past the Hawaiian Hoopla of FLOSSIE...a struggling Tropical Storm trying to hold on and got to give her credit. A lot like Dorian in the Atlantic...however.... the TWC is a terrible spurned lover and refuses to even look over their right shoulder at Dorian. Boy, Dorian really must have pissed them off...   "makes you wonder ...."  

When the drama is over.. maybe they can send Stephanie back to Florida to cover Dorian IF he official reforms. Or...is Dorian going to the Bahamas...following the trail of moisture where his early renewed bands are leading him???

Maybe Dorian will come to me if I don't do anything. Don't hop on the bus gus... or the train James or grab a plane south to Miami. Maybe...Dorian will come to me...

Then again there is no Dorian.. we are tracking Flossie......

And, makes you wonder in ways why two storms on the opposite sides of the world are having almost the exact same problem? Except... Dorian seems to be getting her groove back.

Here's the view of the world..

Where's the storm? On the RIGHT... not much left of Flossie on the left... but don't tell TWC..

Seems to be the way of the world http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsAaLNMtb1A

(yes I played an Earth, Wind and Fire song... not listening just played it... two worlds apart you see??)

Where is "Dorian" going? He's lifting North of West... he's bigger in size than he was and if he does official reforms he may be a different storm. Reborn... Note the fronts, the flow...which ways does he go?

He's not going to Cuba... Florida & GOM or the Bahamas or the Carolinas




Models of the Morning...




How Strong:
Ships takes him to 60 mph on the last few models...



Of course the GFS doesn't like Dorian.. never has..  never will it seems. The HWRF intensifies him near hurricne force and has him in the Gulf off the West Coast of Florida...

Truth is whatever this is ... Dorian... may be with us for days and for now it's a bigger Thunderstorm than Flossie... but oh what a day at the beach Flossie will make for people who love strong waves and surf and the surf will be up!

Here in Raleigh we had thunderstoms last night also...they didn't have a name though....



That's a frontal boundary... the leaves are turning yellow and floating down to the ground like yellow butterflies...  hmnnnn...

The much hoped for E storm seems to be having a problem off the coast of Africa... might be somewhere else... only time will tell..



As for me... where I come from we eat cuban coffee with grits and I'll be back later... when we know something more definitive and when we start dealing with reality in the tropics...

Besos Bobbi

No cornbread...way too fattening.. but oh so yummy and really craving a good pastellito.. honestly should be some truth in advertising rule for writing about the tropics.... buy hype as always rules and everyone seems to have a grudge against Dorian... "he's working hard to make a livin... "

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cV292aZuYEo

Dorian On the Rebound? Mid Level Circulation Visible. Hooking Up with Moisture to his NW. Keep Watching!

So many contradictions. Some models develop Dorian into a Hurricane, other's do not develop it. The NHC gave it a 50% chance of development. I know because I read it on Twitter while trying to hide from my computer. God I love Twitter.  @BobbiStorm... look me up and tell me what you think...

So I went out tonight for a drink...watched the sunset... got a "Hurricane Hooch" which isn't really a Hurricane but then ha ha..neither is Dorian. But.......the models kept whispering his name all afternoon. What is in a name after all?




Everyone once in a while a girl's got to do what a girl's got to do...sitting there refusing to look at one more loop of whatever the name of this storm is... annoyed but smiling.  The drink was good... cranberry, cherry, strawberry... not to tart... no sour mix. 73 degrees on a beautiful night... feeling the air on my skin and trying to hide from the loops and the models everyone keeps sending me of Dorian intensifying.. when in fact there is no Dorian tonight at 11 PM.




Track models now pull to the north towards Florida and maybe even the Bahamas ... some hint steering currents may bomb out a bit and collapse. Others... show other solutions.



Others of course take it low...into the Gulf, through the Florida Straits. One hits Tampa...



Okay it doesn't hit Tampa.. it sort of blows it kisses...

The NHC's wonder child the Ships Model takes it to hurricane status in less than 120 hours.



Let me explain this plainly. Dorian is spinning. Now... some may say "no it's only a mid level circulation" which is pretty good for Dorian as Dorian didn't have any circulation when they killed it off as a dreaded "open wave" and if that's a mid-level circulation I would love to see what a surface circulation would look like..



Also seems to be pulling more to the north, hard to say as it doesn't have a circulation but it's a winner in my book as it is sparing PR more rain and floods.

Wide view:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/imagery/rbtop-animated.gif

Amazingly manages to keep regenerating. This thing is beginning to remind of the story of Dorian Grey.



As much a spin on this loop as it always did.



So, what do I think?

I have a lot of questions.

1... the "wall of shear" was there but was more like a small jumping hurdle rather than a "wall"  which leads me to think it was over hyped or over forecast or a bit of both.

I think IF Dorian reforms officially he will complete the etch a sketch drawing of the Atlantic High.



Close to Florida coast... then what?

The NRL seems to be updating their file on Dorian AKA 91L and has an old track for another 91L which would...could.. might imply they are adding a new track. Am I a mind reader? No.. just guessing.

I have that image titled as OOPS.

Telling you Dorian is a strange one.

Looks a bit like an ampersand... 

So, Bobbi's Bottom Line for Tonight:

As I have said several times over the last few days..

If the "wall of shear" didn't kill Dorian it would ventilate him and help him and that has happened today. yes, it did take some of the color out of him ... but he keeps fighting back.

How any forecaster could not see this a  potential problem I don't know.

Now, it just needs some color, convection and as he moves closer to warmer water in the bathtub of the Bahamas...

His remnants need to be watched.. IF ...he regenerates ...he can be a much more dangerous situation than Flossie which is a very minimal dying out tropical storm that TWC is hyping for ratings.

Flossie is a struggling Tropical Storm..NOT INIKI and to constantly keep reminding people this is like when Iniki hit Hawaii is shameless hype. Iniki was a CATEGORY FOUR.

Flossie is a weak tropical storm a little stronger than Dorian's remnants which contain Gale Force Winds.

Yet, TWC seems to have a ban on even mentioning Dorian.

Look at this loop again..one more time. A few nights ago I said Dorian was so close. Do you remember that.

IF Dorian completely attaches to the orange colored moisture flow to her NW he will lean into it and suck the moisture out of that area and be sucked a bit up towards the NW with that flow. Recon went in and found Gale Force winds but alas no closed surface circulation... If there was an upgrade it should be to TS status but who knows for sure.

Blow blow Seminole Wind... the song came to mind all night while listening to the sounds of the wind rushing through me and the far away thunder getting closer in an emotional moment of meteorological wonder :)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4Eq428U2vU

Come on Dorian....blow... convect... you are so close... and you came so far...

You have to admire, respect a tropical system that against all odds moved in tact across the entire Atlantic Ocean in the middle of dry air despite obituaries that were written for him before he was even named.

50% chances by the NHC... pretty high odds.

Now it's up to Dorian.

Sweet Tropical Dreams

Ps Mister Dorian is trying to hold on... he is so close to winning the latest round in this tropical drama. 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LP-F7h8y-o4

Dorian & Flossie... Similarities and Cousin It

First off worth noting the yellow circle is up to 20% and last night while talking to my friend online there was a short while where the remnants of Dorian had green on the Funk Top after a long, sustained period of convection that has continued into the early morning hours of Sunday.

I find it sort of odd that Dorian..or Ex-Dorian looks better this morning (and yesterday) than she did during most of her trek across the dry Atlantic. Why we are watching Cape Cod I don't know. I'm sure there are some perfectly obvious reasons...but it can't be that important other than maybe Northern Maine or the North Atlantic will see what to them is barely a rain storm from this zero percent yellow circle. Somewhere, out there on the beach  might be a sweet but strange tall man walking in a pale yellow tee shirt with cute eyes that crinkle a bit when he smiles and he is staring out at the water trying to find the yellow circle that could have been the E storm ...but which just sailed away like a ship gone off to sea.



Actually...there is STILL green on the funktop for "Dorian" or what is now back to 91L as an Invest. I don't remember Dorian ever having green ever so maybe this is a new system that the old system spit out.. sort of like one part of a Siamese twins or a morphing sort of effect. Double vision?



So now we have a firing up "Tropical Disturbance" headed into the islands or north of the islands (let's not split crosshairs) and we are watching Flossie which is miles away on the other side of the world..obviously the other Siamese Twin that was Transported by Meteorological Martians to the Pacific where the same tantric dance is going on between a large dry high and a small storm insistent it can travel through a Dry Hurricane.

These storms need shrinks fast...  Talk on self-destructive tendencies...

Notice that Dorian now is almost past the deadly high... almost above it or in it somehow (I'm sounding silly, I do know how this works but it rarely works like this) and moving west with convection.



Getting no respect... OH LOOK there is a NEW ULL beginning to form in the Atlantic to it's NNW with an old left arm still waving at Dorian and.... Dorian had a look last night.

Now...let's go to the other side of the world and ... look at Flossie.

Flossie leaves the pack behind and stares Hawaii straight in the eye.



Now look at the water vapor...



A sea of dryness and yet Flossie is pulling up.. sucking up moisture from the long trail of moisture in the monsoon trough region... but she is having problems. I am imagining Flossie is a girl storm..hard to tell this year.

In front of Flossie.. just like Dorian ... is a diving Upper Level Low seen better in this loop or image below if you are still half away and not up to looping.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/flash-wv.html



Now compare bigger pictures...

Here is 91L or the system previously known as Dorian... ""Where's the High?" Below him...around him but not as bad as it was last week at this time when he was trying to make it west against all odds. Now he is west and he can't get any respect.



Look at Flossie... where's the High?  Below her and cutting into her moisture trying to choke her off in as if she is the victim in a Stephen King movie... oh I meant book...sorry ;)



Dorian... who never ever had recon in his cloud mass ever it seems... solely being stalked by a satellite in outer space relaying information back to the the powers that be.



Flossie Far Away in the Pacific



Track for Flossie... you got to wonder how she did it and why she didn't share her secret with her distant cousin from the wrong side of the family tree Dorian.


This is a relatively short blog post with lots of pictures and lots of questions. I can explain in depth the differences in deeply meteorological mumbo jumbo... something to remember...

1992. Andrew & Iniki. Except Flossie is no Iniki and Dorian never lived up to Andrew or well no not really cause Andrew was not Andrew as we knew him until he was way further north and west. But, still rarely does Hawaii get hit.

And, Flossie should come in as a weak storm ...already mets are pointing out her lack of color and how the dryness is taking a bite out of her.. Yeah they use the same language in their reports for the Pacific as we do.

Dorian kicking up his heels like a flamenco dancer looking for a partner in the Atlantic.



I'll leave you with Dorian and a comment. I am going to try and just refer to these Canes as "IT" which is something I have done in my own personal life at times regarding certain people for my own real reasons.  Yeah, haha... Cousin It. Because it is going to get busier and I often write late at night or early in the morning and really this is not psychology where Male Storms are from Mars and Gal Storms are from Venus.

I mean really you can try and hide but.... it's really not that easy.



No they want to have equal time... I'm taking liberty with the pronouns as I usually do.

You want to dress up a girl storm and call it a guy storm or vice versa because it fits with some political protocol... FINE... to me a HURRicane is ALWAYS a GIRL. Maybe a TYPHOON should be a GUY. But, I like being a girl.. I enjoy it and I like to think hurricanes are female by nature and for many a good reason.

And... when you look back at Mitch and Andrew... really was that a good idea using those male names? Annie might just have stayed a playful Category 3?

Have a great morning and a note here to Yaffah... (not the one that needs wigs) ... may you be smilin this morning where ever you be...

Besos Bobbi

Ps Oh and I have one last set of riddles.  If you find PTravel I'd really love to talk to him about when to plan a vacation to Florida or when to stay in North Carolina cause I don't want to miss anything in either place but if you could arrange another Key West Vacation I would really, really love it!  And....

WHY DOES DORIAN or the system previously known as Dorian look more contentious than Flossie?

Hmmmnnn?  (Nice wave over Africa... "it" will be fun to track)