Dorian ... Psychoanalysis of a Tropical Wave
This is the loop that is your daily crystal ball or at least today's crystal ball!
Note where the blob is that was once a tightly wound Tropical Storm. Somewhere off the North Coat of Puerto Rico it lost it's roll. Possibly a curse by a shaman there to STOP THE RAIN in PR... but it went FLAT...and it's now a wave trying to reform back into a Tropical Storm.
According to a WXR genius I know he said....it will take all the energy it has to form into a storm and more likely will fall apart so our wave is like many people we know.. in bad marriages, bad jobs, lives that are not in concert with their early hopes and goals... the dreams they had when young. But, they are afraid of losing everything so they don't make changes. They don't open up their hand and demand something better.
They roll on... continue on in a state of not quite mediocrity but not quite what they dreamed of...
They are there... living...doing...enjoying life and wondering how they can push it that next step to get to the place they wanted to be.
Intensifying for a wave takes a lot of things... and it's not that easy or we would have 25 hurricanes every year ..duh.
Sort of like when they want to turn... they can either slow down and turn or keep rolling west. Or if a Category one wants to become a Category three... it slows down, slowly intensifies (usually) and often changes direction.
What happened that Andrew found his groove and the will to ramp it up and decide "NO HE DIDN'T WANT TO REPLAY HUGO" he wanted to be Andrew?
Dorian is not Andrew.
Andrew is THE lesson...the one in the lesson books that Waves are supposed to take in Motivation 101.
There Andrew was with early dreams and people in Miami going "what kind of stupid name is Andrew for a storm?" and Andrew may have heard them far away at 45W and 15N give or take. He struggled along feeling mopey and unloved and decided he wasn't up to doing land and taking on the islands... He went UP and OVER and somewhere he heard a meteorologist in Miami say "he may just go out to sea if he doesn't get picked up by that front and go to Carolina" and he moped some more. He didn't want to to go out to sea just yet. Sometime on the 22nd of August while the forecasters were putting out plots for a path between Jacksonville and Charleston... or the Outer Banks.. Andrew got angry and said "NOOOO!!!"
And, Andrew decided "NOOOOOOO, I don't want to go quietly into the night or make landfall as a dreaded weak tropical storm.. I want to be a HURRICANE!! I want to go to MIAMI and NEW ORLEANS and... I WANT A LIFE!!!!"
And, sooner than you could say abracadabra... he decided to make a turn East...and he intensified rather fast and the next thing you knew he was in the History Books!!!
Something changed.... and we can explain what weakens a storm and how a storm strengthens and after the fact how a steering current changed suddenly ... but... in the end it's amazingly up to the Wave or the Tropical Storm to decide to be more and make that effort. Most don't. Some do. Dorian is already in the history books for the early July formation and making it across the ocean as a defineable entity.
Keep watching this loop...because it tells the story better than any random image or loop. Every day he dies down, every night he spins up.
Katrina did it too... a weak wave of a messy batch of convection finally formed off the coast of Florida... and did crazy odd things and then suddenly ...WHAM it found it's Destiny..
Thousands and Tens of Thousands and more of waves never make it as far as Dorian.. they never form, they simply swim along with the flow hoping that flow will take them some place they wanted to go.
Dorian is famous in his own right.
Will he be one of the few who suddenly changed history? Probably not. Though in his way he did, his track is now going to be figured into future models and probabilities as a named storm off the Cape Verde Islands in July that traveled westward this far.
Keep watching the top loop. If you a round ball forming ..a twist in the ball... a spinning up...then something is happening.
I'll be back later.. Going shopping.
And, you know what that means...