Dorian.. Far Away Struggling His Way West.. Models Go South...So does track...

11 PM Track for Dorian. Note that is based on current situations and much can change (including the track) over the next three or four days.


Writing a short discussion tonight, because really I don't think the models do have a good handle on her and I'm hearing too many arguments over the models and not enough about Dorian.

In the old days... like 6 years ago..they would talk about the storm itself...not the models incessantly. The models are important but sometimes irrelevant this far out. Dorian is far out. And, to be honest the NHC Discussion said what I have been saying for days now. She is riding in tandem with the large high that is dry and ... etc... read my last 2 or 3 posts.

They tweaked the models, turned on a super model (not the sexy kind) and are waiting to upgrade graphics as if this is the Pre-Season. Some say it is.. some say it doesn't really start til August 15th..  Tell that to Dorian.

Not in love with the discussion tonight... here it is from NHC... my thoughts below.

"

Tropical Storm DORIAN Forecast Discussion Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive   000 WTNT44 KNHC 260241 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 1100 PM AST THU JUL 25 2013 THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF DORIAN HAS NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LIES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. A 2340 UTC ASCAT-B OVERPASS INDICATES THAT DORIAN HAS WEAKENED A BIT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW 45 KT. DORIAN IS BEING DRIVEN QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND ITS ESTIMATED MOTION IS 285/17 KT. THE ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH DORIAN THROUGH DAY 3...BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS THEN SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL EVOLVE INTO A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA BY DAYS 4 AND 5. BECAUSE OF THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION...THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD ON THIS CYCLE. THE 18Z RUN OF THE GFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 12Z RUN AND IS THE SOUTHERNMOST AND SLOWEST TRACK MODEL WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE NORTHERNMOST AND FASTEST. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED A BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE OVERALL TREND IN THE GUIDANCE...BUT IT ENDS UP CLOSE TO THE ECMWF TRACK ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. DORIAN IS EMBEDDED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF FAST EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND RELATIVELY LIGHT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...WHICH APPEARS TO BE INDUCING SOME WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN THE LAYER BELOW THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW. SINCE THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN ANY TIME SOON...DORIAN COULD EXPERIENCE PERSISTENT SHEAR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON TOP OF THAT...MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE...AND THE DRY AIR COULD INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL KEEP THE WINDS FLATLINED AT 45 KT THROUGH DAY 3 WITH NOT MUCH STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THIS FORECAST IS A BIT LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...PARTIALLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 16.6N 39.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 17.2N 42.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 17.8N 46.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 18.3N 50.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 19.0N 54.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 20.0N 61.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 20.5N 67.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 31/0000Z 21.0N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ FORECASTER BERG"

Dorian is all the way out there...relatively high if you ask me. It's choppy as hell and if it was a boat it would be dealing with Small Craft Warnings. There is a strong front dipping down so much I may open the windows tonight here. Another front is in the wings to dip up near the US/Canadian Border.

Big question is why is the Barometric Pressure so Low... The winds are coming up. He doesn't look good now, yet will probably pulse up over night.

I can see the Florida Straits run through the Keys, but I have a harder time seeing Cuba because she is almost due east of the Virgin Islands. Well, south of due east but... still far out there.

So, check back in the morning when I will have a deeper discussion based on Dorian's progress over night vs comparing five different model runs that were run at different times.

Note she isn't even on most old fashioned tracking maps she is still so far East.



He is closer to Africa than our neck of the woods still...



He is entering stage right...




The answer to if he is a threat to Cuba or Florida will be shown if he can keep his head when all about him is dry air and mild shear :)

He is far away.. and yet he needs to be monitored and remember there are more waves where he came from...

So if you live in Florida pay close attention... or well... mild close. And, there is currently talk it could get into the Gulf of Mexico. Then again many experts think the models are not up to par this storm and it curves up the coast ..

Time will tell.

July storms don't usually curve, then again.. there aren't usually cold fronts this deep in July.

Besos Bobbi

Ps.. Opening my window... it's 67 degrees outside. I want to feel it for myself and am going to bed so I can wake up and see for myself how Dorian made it through the night...