40% Orange Circle - Ups & Downs in the Life of a Tropical Wave
Close up view of our Cape Verde Tropical Wave that is being given 40% chances to develop by the NHC.
I want you to look carefully above at the long tail that this wave has developed over night.
Keep in mind the bigger picture from far away in outer space. It is barely a little red dot in a pocket of moisture off the coast of Africa... very far from the Antilles, PR, Haiti, Cuba, Florida, Miami, Savannah and the Carolinas.
And, note there is a lot of beautiful dark blue on that image above and the dark blue is dry air.
The good news for Invest 98L is that he is maintaining a center within the larger pocket of moisture. Sort of like that old poem.. "if you can keep your head when all about you..." To maintain that center and strong convection at the center is good for development. Also, the long tail going south down into the moist, tropical Atlantic is also good. It allows 98L to tap into necessary moisture that the dry area to it's north is depriving it of as it moves slowly to the west. Note it is moving slower than some of the models forecasted it to move and that to me is a busted forecast and therefore the end result of the model out put cannot be relied upon. Timing is everything. Moving slower is good news for it...if you believe that the fast forward speed of Chantal helped kill her off. His size is a plus, the bigger he is the more chances he has to survive vs a small system like Chantal. Takes them longer to build, but longer to die and often a new center of circulation can pop up and take over.
The problems 98L will have to deal with is water temperatures that will soon be too low to support any real development. If he stays low he may be able to maintain development longer. The models seem split on his moving more to the WNW though and that would take him into cooler waters where the air is still filled with Saharan Dust. It really takes a lot for a Cape Verde Wave at the end of July to maintain itself all the way across the ocean. If they develop too fast they turn WNW and NW into cooler water and die. If they don't develop before a certain point then...the chance of them dealing with the negatives down the road are slim.
Look closer at the picture from above. See all those little dots out in the ocean. Those are not the newest design pattern for fall fashions. They are signs of dry air and dust. Not good for our little swimmer trying to develop.
The NHC had it moving faster and developing faster and pulling more to the North than it's current track. Possibly a stronger storm would have gained more latitude and that is where the discrepancy comes in between what you saw in the models and what you get in real life.
Still has chances here highlighted in purple. Off the Coast of Carolina there is still an area though over night it seems the convection died out a bit. Keep watching. Looks more "frontal" than "tropical" to me.. off the coast. Time will tell.
Remember something with regard to track and saving that discussion for if and when this becomes Dorian.
You know how all those waves keep moving West, WNW and pass through or around PR and then Florida.. you know how all that cocaine is washing ashore on the beaches of South Florida this week? You know how all that Saharan Dust made sky fall over Miami? Hey, get one good weather day and every drug dealer in the tropics is out there trying to get his illegal produce to the market.. The storms follow the same pattern. Only real question is does it lift and go up the coast or slam ashore somewhere the way all that Square Grouper and the Love Sick Manatees been doing beaching themselves in South Florida?
Looking at the water vapor out there... you can see him moving slower than the dry diving air. Explain that? Well, I can but this would be way too long a post. Timing is everything... it might help him develop if he can keep his bubble of moisture around him in the fast moving currents of the Tropical Atlantic.
He's trying to hold on... and consolidate. Supposedly there are signs of a mid or low level circulation, but they have not found it closed off yet on the SW side ...so we wait and watch.
A great place to watch is www.spaghettimodels.com
It's like the dashboard of a really classy, classic car. It has all the things you need to look at .. yup, reminds me oddly of the dashboard of an old boyfriend's car. Especially at night it would light up with numbers and dials and all the information you needed. Many of my images here are from Mike's site and some from my vast array of favorite places.
Great site. A lot of great sites out there. Proud to be connected to it and use it all the time. First site I check in the morning, the last before I go to bed at night. Not that I don't use Drudge ... I just get him better on my Twitter Feed these days and oh well ... you know how much I love Twitter ;) Try and keep up and contact me there if you have any questions @BobbiStorm. Those are images I took while storm chasing at the beach in Miami. Just in case you wondered..
Great song to loop by. Saw her on TV this morning, she's good. Maggie Rose.
So the question is... is 98L looking better or not?
Note the big dark spot in the Eastern Atlantic dipping down and then moving west. Perhaps if our Invest moves slower than the big dark spot and gets some breathing room.. maybe.. just maybe we will have Dorian.
Ps...you can talk it up online at http://hurricanechat.com/ with other talkative tropical friends if you don't like Twitter.
Last thought... watch the diving trough. Note... diving black hole in the Atlantic... moving west... diving front moving SE across the US...somewhere those forces collide. Diving fronts are very good when there are tropical systems moving west bound... they suck those little tropical puppies in 1 -2 -3... landfall somewhere if the big Atlantic High Builds in and traps it below with no where to go but west or wnw or nw somewhere.