Yellow Circle in GOM... 10%... Same area from FL ULL & Hurricane History Lesson on Wet May, June & July in S FL

Is this an ULL working it's way down to the center or the same system over FL that dumped historically huge amounts of rain and didn't get a circle even though some mets locally said it was "spinning" over FL?

A big question ... but it's the 10% Yellow Circle in the Gulf of Mexico.

No Invest as of yet on the Navy site.

Nothing definitive here either...




As for Hurricane History. The NWS out of Key West put out this table of years when Key West had similar flooding. The worst years. ALL years brought Florida storms and many affected Key West or Cuba or PR or all of them at once. Bad hurricanes years and why I am worried about this year ..and why many others are worried as well.

1900
The infamous Galveston Hurricane sailed past Key West on it's way WNW around the base of a strong high. Cuba got slammed. PR had serious rain... much like this last week.



1919
The Hurricane Andrew of Key West did so much damage to Key West that the Hurricane Grotto at St. Marys was erected as a site people could light candles and pray to the Lord that Key West should be spared from any serious storm ever again.  Note the storm also hit PR and the islands. This is a pattern that is visible in many storms in years where both Key West, Miami and PR had a wet May, June and July.




1947
In 1947 South Florida got hit by a series of storms that affected the Florida Keys and South Florida. Ft Lauderdale, more specifically Del Ray Beach, got hit by a historic hurricane. Another system also brought a storm to PR. Worth noting.



1966 Brought Inez... a crazy backward storm that refused to hit Miami dead on but hit the Keys and Cuba as a strong High pushed it west... then retrograded...then pushed it west again. Not all storm tracks are nice and neat.



The only real exception here is 1972...when a storm did affect South Florida a bit, but there was obviously a break in the high and the Gulf of Mexico took direct hits.And, storms formed off the coast of the SE most likely from stalled out frontal boundaries.  A lot of "subtropicals" confusing... read up.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_Atlantic_hurricane_season



2012...
A bad, bad year for hurricanes and tropical storms. Some hit Florida... many hit the coast. That same sort of Galveston track through the Carib around a big high is here too..




Just something to think on.. patterns exist and history often repeats when the patterns are similar.

Buckle up and use this calm before the storm period to stock up on hurricane supplies and prepare a worst case scenario... use the time wisely and enjoy it... it's going to get crazy soon..

Besos Bobbi