40% Orange Circle at 1 AM... Looks More like a Tropical Depression to Me...for now.. keep watching.

Not sure what the NHC will do but would not be surprised to see a Tropical Depression by 5 AM.

This is a very strong signature of an organized system vs a tropical disturbance.

Look at that S shape.  Don't tell me that's not a closed circulation. That's what we in the hurricane tracking business call a "baby picture" and the name of the baby boy is Dorian.

Do you upgrade a wave when you know it may fall apart in a few days? Yes, parameters are there and met.

Will it fall apart? No one knows for sure.

Imagine they will wait for the "first visible" but conditions in that neck of the Atlantic favor slow development for the next few days, before it becomes hostile.

Keep checking in. This has the potential to be a real long tracker...

"1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED

NEAR THE CENTER OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. 
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY
BEFORE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.  INTERESTS IN THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

The NHC upped it's profile to a dark orange 40%. If you ask me it's chances are much higher than that... at least 55% or 60%. Guess they will wait until the first visible which in that part of the world will come in a few hours...

Look at it... it's awesome. So far away, but awesome still.


Besos Bobbi
Ps... Sometimes you got to enjoy the moment. It's not always about what happens to these waves...or storms at the end of the road, but enjoying the daily diurnal undulations as they spin up and down and turn around and do their thing.... while we watch from far, far away.

Carolina? Bermuda? Florida?