Let's Talk Models and Miami and Dorian . . .

This is the Forecast Cone for a STRONG, but small Tropical Storm Dorian at 5AM on 7/25/2013.

You don't need an A in geometry to extrapolate and know that Florida may have to tangle with Dorian.  Note, I did not say where in Florida and that is open for a lot of discussion. What is not open currently is a doorway to the North. That doorway may appear and there have been indications this does the Floyd slide up the coastline towards the Carolinas. There are also indications it could do a David sort of bend and slam into the coastline towards the Treasure Coast.  Also...go zoom, zoom, zooming west into the Gulf and oh my gosh that would mean a date with Florida somewhere. Hey, we could get "lucky" and the it could run the Straits.

But, when you see Dorian on the NWS Weather Loop in the 7 day.. it's time to talk models seriously. Good news here is that they have it as a weak storm.. I don't see that happening but it's possible. Anything is..
But... remember that models change in real time in relation to the atmospheric patterns far to the North and Northwest and in relation to the storm itself and it's own strength... It's not just about the Atlantic Ridge and the Upper Level Lows. If Dorian intensifies noticeably all bets are off on the current models. Please remember I said that...

The above image is where the current GFS says that Dorian will be in 177 hours. It also shows us a thin arm of the Huge Atlantic High over Florida which would imply he will go safely into the Keys or slide along the North Coast of Cuba west bound.

And then.........a few hours later on the last image of the day... the arm starts to fade away. Note on the earlier run it disappeared all together and made what looked like a passage way for Dorian to do a Floyd Fandango Move up the coast. The next run, this run... shows more of a definitive long range problem for Florida.

Oh...what a difference 3 hours make. Ask anyone who is about to give birth to a "Sandy Baby" this week what a difference three hours of loving making in the dark with no TV or Internet will make...

The new improved and less Florida friendly end result shows it gliding up the state of Florida like many a weak July storm has done... through the Keys... Key Biscayne and up A1A.  The only thing I can bet money on and you can take to the bank is that this will change over the next 7 days. But, how much will it change is my question and concern?

The GFDL is dreaming on Carolina storms as well as the Canadian which I will discuss in depth below. But it shows a strong high building in when our Tropical Flavor of the Month named "DORIAN" is in the vincinity.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2013072506-dorian04l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

The Canadian has some sort of strange new Carolina Bias. Every day in some new way it finds a way to form a storm off the coast of Carolina. New day, new storm. It's like Groundhog Day. It takes the "weakness" that would have been Dorian into the Florida area too..though it's focus oddly is forming storms off the Coast of Carolina.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2013072500&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation


Jack Beven did the discussion this morning at the NHC and he is one of the best. He wrote a good, honest discussion on the problems forecasting for Dorian.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/250837.shtml?

Important part about the problems of getting the intensity forecast is below:

"THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS COMPLEX AND OF LOW CONFIDENCE. DORIAN

SHOULD MOVE OVER WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT
2-3 DAYS...BUT DURING THIS TIME IT ALSO MAY ENCOUNTER SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRIER AIR AT THE MID-LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND FORECASTS FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
BECOME QUITE DIVERGENT BETWEEN 72-120 HOURS...WITH THE
POSSIBILITIES RANGING FROM CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION
TO SHEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE DORIAN TO WEAKEN. OVERALL...THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS...AND THUS THE NEW FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL AND IS STRONGER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS."

So now what?

The Models show Dorian making a turn or let me put it this way.. many of the models do show that late turn to the right aka North.



He talks about the model biased for it to turn more to the north and explains why they kept the cone the way they have so far..

"THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/15. DORIAN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A

DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. 
THIS FEATURE SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO.  AFTER THAT...DORIAN SHOULD
APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A DECREASED FORWARD SPEED.  THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE NORTH SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  BASED ON THIS...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL BE NUDGED A
LITTLE TO THE NORTH...BUT IT LIES SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS."

He's good. Always has been. There are some talented writers at the NHC not just scientific forecasters. That's the amazing part.. it's not all about math.. it's about reading between the lines in the multitude of graphs and images coming in and yet also knowing hurricanes and hurricanes of the past and balancing that all with wisdom and CLIMO as I like to capitalize it as it deserves.

Plain and simple gang...this is a Cape Verde storm that should for a while at least become a Hurricane and become one sooner rather than later. And, it is a Cape Verde Storm that is coming up OVER the islands. The problem with that is good for San Juan and bad for the Continental US. There is nothing to weaken it short of shear and that face off between the storm and shear will occur down the road and a lot depends on how strong Dorian is and factors yet to play out that are for now only fantasies in the mathematical dreams of models spitting out one new run after another as we watch and wonder.

Plain and simple gang.. we keep watching the storms...watching the models and reading discussion in between. And, there is a lot of discussion going on as to why this storm formed so early in the season and all of her oddities and how she is staying alive. I'm in deep conversation often late at night with friends who know much more than me and some who don't know as much as me and we trade it back and forth and talk and shoot the tropical breeze. This is prime time for us ...a bit early.. my time.. our time.. and honestly we love it!  And... odds are it will recurve as despite the huge high it is FAR out and has a LONG WAY TO GO.  So don't get lost in the models any more than buying some great line from a hunky guy on a hot summer night, because in six hours he may be singing another tune. Just watch, smile..enjoy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YyX5R6ohBE <-- by...="" loop="" pre="" too="">

My Bottom line this morning:



He looks like he wants to be a Hurricane... he has a long tail...he has the "look"


He has the "look" of a Classic Cape Verde Hurricane. 


He has ample moisture down there he is sucking in via bands and a tropical trough of sorts.


And, he's pushing the dry air west out of the way (not a good sign) and remember one thing.


EVERYONE was writing this storm's obituary a few nights ago except for me.


He will form.. but he'll die out fast because of ________________ and _____________!


Again, he is the exception to the rule and exceptions to the rule are problematic.


I'll be back later after the next model runs, next NHC discussion and for any breaking news.


If you live in Miami or have travel plans around Miami in a weeks time.. stay on top of this storm!


Besos Bobbi


Ps.... I'm listening to that Valentines CD for Bobbi from 2001 and wow... someone should be .. 
making soundtracks .. as good as you are at what you do you may have missed your calling. Wow. Intense.