Dorian Staying Strong... Carving her way into the bottom of the High.. Hmmnnn

Sort of amazing that Dorian is able to push into the dry air even on his north side.




A lot going on there... looks very different in the Atlantic today than it did last week and look at that wave emerging from Africa...


Track:



A few thoughts tonight... and will update in the morning.
1.  The premature obituary written on this storm is a lesson in how hard it is to predict a tropical cyclone's strength.

2. Everyone said this wave would get stretched out along the equator and die out... fast.
Instead it busted INTO the hgih and is not adding moisture into the atmosphere there. The high is doing somewhat kinky things with an ULL forming and another system to it's north and Dorian eating away at it, carving it's way into it. YES.. its a MASSIVE high, but that is not natural and the way of the world is something will come along and knock it off it's high horse. Might be Chantal. If not.. one of the ones behind it.

3. Going to bed. Nothing really to add to what I have already said earlier today. Please reread the posts.

4. It's the same old song and dance, time after time, now and forever.
There is the storm..
There is an ULL..
There are fronts diving down still.......
There is a High and it moves around...

All depends on where the high is when the storm is in that area north of PR and........

It depends on how strong the storm is.. the GFS earlier had it as a hurricane...a  strong hurricane NE of PR.

Again.... it's similar to Bertha in 1996 the year I first really tracked online with friends. The year before I watched a lot. I was shy. My friend sat down at my computer and started talking in Chat pretending to me. Thanks.....  In 1996 I talked, played, wrote endlessly on AOL and printed out enough maps to kill several small forests. I remember 96 well. This is a similar set up.  IF the high builds in faster or the door isn't open as much for a recurve then Dorian could slam into Florida or keep going West over Cuba.

Anything can happen at this point. Well, almost anything.

A lot changes. A lot stays the same.

I'm still talking to friends. I'm still talking to Burns. I'm still reading www.flhurricane.com and hiding away there as Loiscane but not really hiding... and have made deep real life friendships with people at www.hurricanecity.com.

We have a new Weather Chat... from www.spaghettimodels.com and it's a great site.

The more things change...the more they stay the same.

If Dorian comes near the Outer Banks.. am going to stand on the beach, take pictures, interview people and enjoy every minute of it. If it hits OBX I'll be here in Raleigh writing away on my blog. If it goes to Miami I will be really annoyed I missed it (can still go) but happy I can track it here.

And, I'll be up late at night talking to my friends...

For now.. going to sleep.

Watch the storm spin, he is amazing for a storm that was written off a few days back and people made fun of the models predicting it would form.

1996.. Everyone said Bertha couldn't happen.. and then she did.

WAVE TRAIN OVER AFRICA



Models:



Another set:



Easy to say if it stays weak it goes west... easy to say if it gets stronger it goes north.

And, how bout that Invest 99...



Canadian keeps him weak and hits .. Miami :)


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2013072412&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

GFS takes him towards Florida and then....



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2013072418&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Your guess is as good as mine, though I do have a gut feeling.

Going to sleep. Check back in the morning and check in at www.spaghettimodels.com for any breaking news or www.hurricanechat.com

Sweetest Tropical Dreams..

BobbiStorm

Ps..sorry for any typos... I checked but can't keep my eyes open. Smiling. NiteTNite Sandman..