TD 4 Forms - Early Cape Verde Storm - Key West Memories & Lobster Season in the Keys
Long view of the world and how far away Tropical Depression 4 is from the United States and the Caribbean Islands. That bright white spot in the middle of the dark Atlantic Ocean...well closer to Africa is Tropical Depression #4 forecast to become Tropical Storm Dorian later in the forecast period.
Salient part of the Discussion on TD 4
"THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN THE TRACK FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A LITTLE DRIER ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREFORE...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC WHICH COULD CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME PERIOD." FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 13.9N 28.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 14.6N 30.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 15.5N 34.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 16.2N 37.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 16.8N 41.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 18.2N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 19.3N 56.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 20.0N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
Close up view of this very early "jump the gun" Cape Verde Tropical Depression in July.
What you see is a nicely formed, well defined system which is what we call "bottom heavy" which in his case is good. Hey, he's a guy.. he doesn't have to try and fit into those cute summer dresses they are wearing on TWC :) and it those fins down in the water allow him to suck in tropical moisture which is to his south. Dry air reigns to his north. Marginal water temperatures which should inhibit development and keep him a weak Tropical Storm...if and when he attains Tropical Storm status which if he keeps it together should be by 11 AM. Maybe they will wait until 5 PM if he loses some color... Hard to say these days, but he's on what is akin to a 90 Day Trial in a new job ...except in his case he has about 6 to 12 hours to prove himself!
Nice really, very nice. If we had a system like this in the middle of August out there everyone in Miami would be running to their favorite Publix and stocking up like crazy. Again.. may I remind you that having a few of these around in case of a storm and the power goes out may make all the difference.
Just saying... been there, done that. I have a few hidden away... for when you REALLY need good coffee and the Nespresso machine is sitting waiting for the power to come back on. Water is IMPORTANT...but there are other necessities in life.
Notice the northward movement of this system. WNW. You can watch this loop and see why the NHC decided to upgrade him to Depression status from "wave" or "disturbance" early this morning.
This enhanced image shows you something interesting. Those are the Cape Verde Islands to his NW behind him. It also most looks as if someone flipped the map and those are the Antilles... nope... Cape Verde Islands off of Africa.
You don't see that often, and even if this storm dies a quick death it will be memorable for it's early formation so far East.
The 5 Day Cone from the NHC shows what the models show... a steady movement to the WNW across the Atlantic.
![[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]](http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0413W5_NL_sm2+gif/084236W5_NL_sm.gif)
I may add there are some models, as always, that break from the pack a bit ... but this is pretty reliable.
Worth noting the GFS the more reliable of the models keeps him for now north of Haiti. That will change often, but will it change to the north or the south is the question?
The real problem here is water temperatures are not looking as viable for tropical storm development as the incredibly beautiful early season Tropical Depression would desire.
It needs to get past the yellows and "yellow-orange" colored area that looks like someone was playing with an old box of Crayola Crayons. It needs to make it alive or somewhat intact to the orange area to really thrive and kick up his heels and go hurricane on us.
Note, there will be an ULL around that area which can either deal him the same death card as Chantal got or it can help ventilate him and help excite him into a much stronger storm. That particular drama is days away..
The set up 7 days from now is this.. a front moves down to around the Florida-Georgia Line and the high pulls out a bit (actually on loops if undulates back and forth) and opens a door way for any Tropical Storm or Hurricane to pull north along the Florida Coast much like say Floyd did in 1999. Or, the high could snap back to the West and trap the storm under it forcing it over Florida. Just something to watch and providing the link below that you can save and loop. It's from the NWS and about as reliable as it gets for a 7 day forecast. Not that I don't love the models, but they have put their money on these forecast decisions and it's a better guide than playing pin the head on the most reliable model.
The Divers in the Florida Keys today during the Mini-Season Holiday owe Mother Nature a big "Gracias" or "Thank YOU!" because many a Mini-Season has been dealt a Tropical Storm and today all tropical activity is far, far away.
It's something you either love or can't figure out. This need to go down into the ocean...diving down deep and stalking the little buggy looking crustaceans and showing them off like they are tropical deer antlers. For the sushi set on South Beach or the Vegetarians who enjoy lunch at Mi Vida Cafe on the Boulevard in the MIMO district it's something they just can't wrap their head around. And, if you are kosher you are definitely living on the wrong side of the Overseas Highway if you are down their diving today.
But, it's a rite of summer... late July... before the big, bad storms threaten South Florida with a real Tropical Invasion. Look at them down their stalking their buggy prey... Hmnnnn.
As for me I wish I was writing this from a room with a view at La Concha in Key West.
Down the block from Margaritaville and around the corner from my Great Grandma's front porch..
and down the block from the house formerly known as "Tom's House"
missing Tom and his house...
behind those walls is a tropical paradise you cannot imagine and a pool with a view of the sky
and ...that's the ocean down the block...
:)
Good friends are forever...
My close friend told me to take a trip back in my memory today..so listening to him.. (ty)
This is me...standing on the grates of the launching platform for the weather balloons in Key West
Special privileges ;)
WOW they turned the air on (yes that's me...)
My youngest son when younger helping launch the balloon....
The view from the top... an almost better view than from La Concha.. other side of the island.
:) MY view from inside... watching the loops at the NWS in KW...
Oh... I want to go home... back to my island... just a matter of time...
Then again if I had the money I'd buy that house my son is selling in the Redlands a short drive away
from the Florida Keys...inland, safe from storm surge...
nice... 35 minutes to Key Largo....
I mean seriously you can own your own private Venetian Pool ...
that's even better than Tom's pool...
So... back to the tropics.... or African Waves :)
Keep watching TD 4 which is forecast to become Tropical Storm Dorian and Dorian will in the short term aim himself towards the Islands. Pick an island from the Virgin Islands to Guadalupe.
And...then.............it all depends on the Atlantic High and it's placement in 7 or 8 days.
Note, if this was late August and the water temperatures would support rapid intensification and..
...Dorian was to be a Category 3 Hurricane it could make it's own steering currents and..
....bust up into the High...
BUT............it's July and too Early for such a scenario according to Climo so...
we are looking at a weak, west bound Tropical Storm over the next few days
struggling to hold on through cooler than desired water temps
sort of doggie paddling west bound looking for warmer water
and low shear...
BOBBI'S BOTTOM LINE:
Water temperatures are a problem.
Well defined circulation.
Moving at around 20 MPH WNW.. bit fast.
Big @SS High moving in tandem with the TD (only way I could say it...)
ULL forming somewhere North of the Islands
Placement of the Atlantic High in a Week's Time ...will write the story.
Biggest question...Can it make it across the Atlantic better than Chantal?
Big storms take longer to fall apart, small area of convection...big bubble of moisture.
Only Time Will Tell
Besos Bobbi
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cbX4DUACYU (song to watch the loop by...)
Ps...Welcome to the Start of the 2013 Cape Verde Part of the Atlantic Hurricane Season
and there's more waves behind the soon to be Dorian.
posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:05 AM
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